Thoughts on the Sell-off

So, the fire sale has begun.   Nick Holden is now a Boston Bruin, may he play as well for them as he did for the Rangers (not very well at times).  Jeff Gorton gets an "A" for that deal netting a 3rd round pick from Boston in this year's draft along with an AHL depth defenseman in Rob O'Gara.  O'Gara has size (same height as Holden, 6'4") and is more of a defensive defenseman.   The Long Island native (and a lifelong Islander fan), may see action versus Montreal on Thursday if Marc Staal is not available.  At any rate, Holden cost the Rangers a 4th round pick so the Blueshirts got a better return than he cost them.

With the trade deadline looming on Monday at noon, it is becoming more and more apparent that deals for Rick Nash, David Desharnais and Michael Grabner are inevitable.  The Ryan McDonagh talks have heated up and he provided the team with a list of ten teams he will NOT go to.   Other names bandied about have been Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes. The belief is that Gorton will entertain offers for anyone on the team and if blown away, will make a deal.  Right now, I'm sure his priority is to drive up the price for Nash and Grabner.   One good thing about the Holden deal is that by obtaining a third rounder for him, it sets the price for Nash and Grabner as a first round pick and more.

We've discussed the  value of draft picks with the better the pick dramatically raising the odds of success in the NHL.   That said, one has to really hope that any draft picks obtained by the Rangers be from teams that ultimately miss the playoffs.    Although the hottest rumors are Tampa (for McDonagh) and Nashville (for Nash), it's the cusp teams they should be dangling these players in front of.

Right now,  Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Vegas, Nashville and Winnipeg are a lock for a playoff spot.  While other teams (Washington, Pittsburgh) look like a playoff spot is assured, there is a slight chance they could miss.  So, here is the latest expanded Tankometer (teams currently in the playoffs in italics):

	Team	GP	Record	Points	ROW
1	Arizona	59	17-32-10	44	16
2	Buffalo	59	17-32-11	45	17
3	Ottawa	58	21-28-9	51	19
4	Montreal	59	22-29-8	52	20
5	Edmonton	59	24-31-4	52	22
6	Vancouver	60	23-30-7	53	23
7	Detroit	59	24-26-9	57	20
8	Florida	56	26-24-6	58	24
9	Chicago	60	25-27-8	58	25
10	Rangers	60	27-28-5	59	24
11	Carolina	60	27-23-10	64	24
12	Islanders	61	29-26-6	64	26
13	Columbus	60	30-25-5	65	24
14	Colorado	59	32-23-4	68	31
15	Calgary	60	30-21-9	69	28
16	New Jersey	60	31-21-8	70	27
17	Anaheim	61	30-20-11	71	26
18	Los Angeles	60	33-22-5	71	31
19	St.Louis	61	34-23-4	71	31
20	Minnesota	59	32-20-7	71	29
21	Philadelphia	60	31-19-10	72	30
22	San Jose	60	33-19-8	74	29
23	Pittsburgh	61	35-22-4	74	33
24	Washington	60	34-19-7	75	31

Now, we can assume that it is very likely that any team with an eight point cushion from the last wild card slot will be making the post season.  Those teams are Washington, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.   From there, break the teams into likely playoff teams and cusp teams.

The onlly likely playoff team is New Jersey, with a six point cushion.  All of the reast of the contenders are cusp teams and therefore the best trading partners for the Rangers.  If they miss the playoffs, they enter the lottery and have a chance at moving up to the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks.

Here are the cusp teams (in descending order points-wise):  San Jose, Minnesota, St. Louis, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Calgary, Colorado, Columbus,  Islanders and Carolina.

From the list, the best teams to deal with would be the Rangers' Metro Division rivals the Islanders, Carolina and Columbus.  As illogical as it seems to make a trade within the Metro Division, a Nash or Grabner deal would actually help the Rangers long-term (if they ultimately miss the post-season).  Arch-rivals would be giving up assets that would help them in the future for a short term rental.

The Deal for Martin St. Louis

The Rangers acquisition of Martin St. Louis can be seen as an example of a deal that strengthened a rival.  The end result for Tampa is still up in the air, but the potential was there.  Dissecting the trade can be instructive. The Rangers obtained St. Louis in return for first round picks in 2014 and 2015, a seventh round pick in 2015 as well as Ryan Callahan.  The Rangers got St. Louis and a second round pick in 2015.

The Lightning flipped that 2014 first round pick to the Islanders in exchange for two second round picks in that draft . They drafted Dominick Masin, a Czech defenseman and college defenseman Johnathan MacLeod.  Masin just made it to the AHL and MacLeod may not be offered a contract after his senior year at BU.  Both are not seen as top prospects.

The Lightning flipped the 2015 first rounder to the Islanders in exchange for a second and third round pick in the same draft.  They drafted center Mitchell Stephens who has 17 goals in his first AHL season and was just  named AHL Rookie of the Month for January.  In the third round they drafted winger Dennis Yan who is also in his first season in the AHL and is ranker #15 among Tampa prospects.  The 7th rounder they acquired was a Russian player who was not offered a contract.  Stephens has the most upside of any of the draft picks they got.

So, the Lighting went for quantity over quality and ultimately drafted five players .  Two appear to be AHL players and two (Stephens & Yan) may have a future in the NHL.  Ironically, the Islanders got both first rounders in separate deals with Tampa and did much better, drafting Josh Ho-Sang and Anthony Beauvillier with Ho-Sang still a viable prospect and Beauvillier a productive NHL forward this year.

So, did Tampa  "win" that deal?  They still have Ryan Callahan's leadership and a solid prospect in Mitchell Stephens and a raw prospect in Dennis Yan. Maybe it was the Islanders who "won'" the St. Louis deal, ending up with  Ho-Sang and Beauvillier.

As for the Rangers, they got a trip to the Finals and one additional season out of St . Louis.  The second round pick they acquired was flipped to Arizona in the Keith Yandle deal.  Arizona traded that pick to Calgary who drafted Oliver Kylington, a Swedish defenseman playing in the AHL, listed as the Flames #15 prospect.

And this year the Rangers are headed for disaster while Tampa and the Islanders are in the playoff picture with Ho-Sang, Yan and Stephens yet to have an impact as NHL players. 

Summing Up

As we have stated repeatedly, outside of the top ten picks, the NHL draft is a crapshoot.  It's essential for the Rangers to acquire high picks or at least picks that have a chance of making it into the top three.  If the team has three first rounders from non-playoff teams (their own and two by trade), they dramatically increase their odds of ending up in the top three.   A top three would be a stud player who could have an immediate impact on the future of the New York Rangers.

If the Rangers have to trade with a team definitely making the playoffs, the payoff has to be at the minimum, a prospect that will be playing in New York next season along with a draft pick (knowing that if its a first rounder it will be late).  Hopefully, Gorton will be able to work some magic as the deadline draws near.

Tanking...A Strategic Necessity

First, some news after the disaster in Nashville.  Filip Forsberg will be suspended for three games because of his high hit on Jimmy Vesey.  According to NHL.com the following grounds were being considered for supplemental discipline:  interference.  Yes, that's right...not elbowing, interference.  They could have called it interference with intent to kill.  What about a suspension and fine for the refs for missing the call?  Meanwhile, it appears that Alexei Emelin will get away with his high head shot on Marc Staal. No word on the extent of the injuries to Staal and Vesey, but the team recalled Vinni Lettieri for the game in Dallas.  At any rate, it'll cost Forsberg three games and almost $100k.  The Rangers could have used the five minute major.

With this Ranger season going up in flames and the injuries mounting, it looks like the Rangers are headed for the draft lottery.  They currently sit 9th worst, behind Arizona, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, Montreal, Edmonton, Detroit and Florida, but are only seven points from having the fourth worst record in the league.   You hate to say it, but Ranger fans need to be rooting for the teams between Ottawa and New York the rest of the season.  There is a website that tracks lottery pick odds and with the team in 9th place, the Blueshirts have a 5.4% shot at the #1 pick.  Fourth place and the odds double.   Check out tankathon.com:  http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

The Athletic has the Rangers finishing with 85 points, good for 8th worst in the league.   The way the draft lottery works is all 15 teams that miss the playoffs have  a shot at the top three picks, determined by a draw of ping pong balls with the higher weight to the teams with the worst records. If a team doesn't move up to 1-3, the remaining position is determined by points.

So, a Ranger fan REALLY wants the team to finish as close to the bottom as possible to get a top pick.  The only way for this sell-off to succeed is to tank and here's why.

The Chicago Blackhawks are closest to a dynasty the NHL has seen in recent memory, with three Stanley Cup championships in six years.  They are now on the downswing, betrayed by the salary cap that has forced them to give up carefully cultivated assets to make the cap.  With no salary cap, the Blackhawks would be a much better team today and that is on the NHL.

The Blackhawks had a very bad stretch of seasons, only making the playoffs once in ten tries from 1997 to 2008.   They rebounded from that stretch of ineptitude to win the 2010 Stanley Cup and with an intact core, go on to win the Cup in 2013 and 2015.   How did they do it?

They did it with with some savvy free agent signings, excellent late round drafting and above all, some top picks. It took a while, as they had top ten picks for four straight years (1998-2001) and made some really bad picks. Their top ten draft picks those years were Mark Bell, Steve McCarthy, Mikhail Yakubov and Tuomo Ruutu.  Only Ruutu had an NHL career.

Beginning in 2002 they started to do much better in the entry draft.  They took Duncan Keith in the second round  in 2002.  In 2003, Brent Seabrook was the 14th pick overall and they drafted Corey Crawford in the second round.  They also struck gold with Dustin Byfuglien in the 8th round.  In 2004, they drafted Troy Brouwer in the 7th round.  Those late round picks made up for bad first round selections in the same years.

They made decent trades.  In 2006, Patrick Sharp came from Philadelphia and in 2007  Kris Versteeg from Boston for little in return.  In 2008 Andrew Ladd came from Carolina in exchange for former #1 pick Tuomo Ruutu.

They filled holes in the roster with free agent signees Brian Campbell and  Antti Niemi (undrafted) in 2008 and Marian Hossa in 2009.

But undeniably, the two key acquisitions were  draft picks.  In 2006, with the third overall pick they took Jonathan Toews.  In 2007, the first year of the draft lottery, they moved from 5th to 1st pick overall and selected Patrick Kane. The Hawks were incredibly fortunate to get the first pick, but they also went after Kane who was ranked second after Kyle Turris by Central Scouting.

The 2009 team went to the Conference Finals and was pretty much the same team that won the Cup the next year.  They had a stellar forward corps made up of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Ladd, Brouwer, Versteeg and Sharp.   The defense was top notch with Keith, Byfuglien, Seabrook and Campbell.  Goaltending was deep with Corey Crawford and Antti Niemi.

The one undeniable fact is that it was the core four that made them the dynasty that won three Stanley Cups.   Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Duncan Keith were the four pieces and they wouldn't have had the success without them.

While Duncan Keith was a great second round pick and Marian Hossa was an excellent free agent signing, it was the #1 pick (Kane) and the #3 pick (Toews) that sealed the deal.

How does this apply to the New York Rangers?  They've always had a deep, solid corps of players, but it is the Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews that they lack.  They thought they were getting it in Marty St. Louis,  Marian Gaborik and Rick Nash, but those deals haven't paid off.  It's the same with the Pittsburgh Penguins who have ridden Sydney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Marc Andre Fleury to Nirvana and also to the Los Angeles Kings with Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty.

Add a Malkin, Kopitar or Toews to the Rangers of 2015 and what happens?  One can only dream. Let the tanking begin.

McDonagh Trade Possibilities

With their backs to the wall, the Rangers came back from the All-Star break and laid an egg at MSG.  The ONLY positive out of the game was that the Maple Leafs scored five goals against the Islanders versus "only" four versus the Blueshirts.  The Rangers could muster little or no offense against the Leafs' backup goalie and Lundqvist was hung out to dry on all four goals.  It was ugly.  The team looked overmatched as if they didn't belong in the same arena.

The Rangers now sit three points out of a wild card slot and if the season ended today, they would have the 10th pick in the entry draft.    They are only seven points from the fifth fewest in the league.  With a weighted draft lottery pick lurking, the trade noise is getting louder.

With all of the chatter about trading Ryan McDonagh, it's time to take a look at what kind of return to expect if he is dealt.  In other posts, we've noted that it is imperative that if he is traded, the team must get a top defenseman in return.   Is it possible to find a stud defenseman if you don't have a top ten draft pick?   I merged several lists of top NHL defensemen (nhl.com/Sportsnet/The Hockey News) and looked at where they were drafted to see if it is possible.  Here are the 41 best D-men in the NHL right now:

First Round (22)
Aaron Ekblad, Florida -   1st
Victor Hedman, Tampa -   2nd
Drew Doughty, Los Angeles -  2nd
Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis -  4th
Seth Jones, Columbus-  4th
Morgan Rielly, Toronto - 5th
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Arizona- 6th
Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim -   6th
Ryan Suter, Minnesota -  7th
Matt Dumba, Minnesota - 7th
Ivan Provorov, Philadelphia - 7th
Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo - 8th
Zach Werenski, Columbus -  8th
Dougie Hamilton, Calgary - 9th
Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg - 9th
Ryan Ellis. Nashville -  11th
Cam Fowler, Anaheim -   12th
Ryan McDonagh, Rangers -  12th
Kevin Shattenkirk, Rangers -  14th
Erik Karlsson, Ottawa -  15th
Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton - 19th
Brent Burns, San Jose -  20th

Second Round (7)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose -  35th
Justin Faulk, Carolina -  37th
Roman Josi, Nashville -  38th
P.K. Subban, Nashville -  43rd
Jeff Petry, Montreal -  45th
Shea Weber, Montreal -  49th
Duncan Keith, Chicago -  54th

Later Rounds (10)
Kris Letang, Pittsburgh - 62nd
Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia - 78th
Colton Parayko, St. Louis -  82nd
Mattias Ekholm , Nashville - 102nd
T.J. Brodie, Calgary -  114th
Jacob Slavin, Carolina -  120th
John Klingberg, Dallas -  131st
Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota -  156th
Josh Manson, Anaheim -  160th
Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg  245th

Undrafted (2)
Mark Giordano, Calgary
Torey Krug, Boston

Hmmm.  It's obvious that a team can find a gem in late rounds with almost half of the top defenseman drafted after the first round.   What's also obvious is that the New York Rangers haven't been very good at doing that.  The last defenseman drafted by New York after the first round to make the NHL was Michael Sauer (40th overall in 2005) and before that, Fedor Tyutin (40th overall in 2001).  As a matter of fact, since 1990, the ONLY defenseman drafted after the first round to make an impact on the Rangers was Sergei Zubov, drafted 85th overall in 1990.  To give credit, in 2005 the team did sign Dan Girardi, who was undrafted.

So, since the team's vaunted scouting system has produced no late round NHL defensemen in over a decade, is it possible to trade for a stud defenseman?  Interestingly, 11 of the top 41 defenseman have changed teams with nine by trade.

Traded - Seth Jones from Nashville to Columbus for Ryan Johansen.
Traded - Jeff Petry -  Edmonton to Montreal for two draft picks (2nd & 5th round)
Traded - Ryan McDonagh -  Montreal to NYR for Scott Gomez and others
Traded -Dougie Hamilton - Boston to Calgary for two first round picks and one second round pick.
Traded - Kevin Shattenkirk -  Colorado to St. Louis for Erik Johnson (4 former 1st rounders were in this deal)
Traded - Dustin Byfuglien -  Chicago to Atlanta for 1st and 2nd round picks and others
Traded - Shea Weber -  Nashville to Montreal for P.K. Subban
Traded - P.K. Subban - Montreal to Nashville for Shea Weber.
Traded - Brent Burns - Minnesota to San Jose with a second round pick for Charlie Coyle, a top prospects and a 1st round pick.
Free Agent - Ryan Suter -  Nashville to Minnesota (FA)
Unsigned - Jared Spurgeon  from Islanders to Minnesota

First, let's say that the Islanders showed their usual bad judgment by not even offering Spurgeon a contract.

The  Jones, Shattenkirk,Weber and Subban deals were blockbuster trades with quality going both ways.
The McDonagh and Burns deals were one-sided.
The Petry, Hamilton and Byfuglien deals were for future assets (mostly draft picks).

In the future assets deals, the Canadiens have nothing to show for the Petry deal.   The Bruins are waiting for their three picks to develop and have been castigated for passing on Matthew Barzal.    The Blackhawks got little out of their trading of Byfuglien.  In a bit of Ranger trivia, the  Atlanta 1st rounder they acquired was used to pick the the one and only Kevin Hayes.

So, history shows that it is very difficult to "steal" a top defenseman.  Trading for draft picks usually results in little or nothing.  The best option for a positive return is to package additional assets in a trade for another top defenseman.

With defensemen at a premium in the NHL, which teams are the best candidates as trade partners?

Okay, rule out the teams with no stud defensemen to trade, teams out of playoff contention and teams in the Metropolitan Division.  Also take out any teams with only one defenseman on the top 41 list.

That leaves six teams as best candidates (with the number of top D-men on the team in parentheses).  Nashville (4), Anaheim (3), Calgary (3) , Minnesota (3) San Jose (2)  and Winnipeg (2).

Nashville Predators:  They sit in second place in the Central Division with a six point cushion to the last wild card team.  They've been winning and "The Athletic" says they are a lock for the playoffs with a 9% chance of winning the Cup.  They already made their blockbuster deal of the season when they acquired Kyle Turris and just signed Mike Fisher to return to the team.  That said, would the addition of Ryan McDonagh as a top four defenseman be the final piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle and be worth Ryan Ellis or Mattias Ekholm? Throw in Rick Nash or Michael Grabner and does that seal the deal?    Ryan Ellis and a #1 pick for McDonagh and Nash?

Anaheim:  The Duck are out of the wild card picture today and "The Athletic" estimates a 54% chance of making the post-season.  They already traded one of their young defensemen to the Devils for Adam Henrique,  but still boast a deep D-corps.  Could McDonagh upgrade their defense in a tough Pacific Division?   Josh Manson and a #1 pick for McDonagh and Grabner?

San Jose:  The Sharks are one loss from being out of the playoffs...and their odds of making the post-season are 61%.  However, their top two defensemen (Burns and Vlasic)  are 30 or older and signed to ridiculous longterm contracts for big bucks.  No trade here.

Calgary:  The Flames sit one point out of a playoff slot with a 59% shot at making the post season.  They are very deep on D with Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie,  Hamonic and Michael Stone. At times offensively challenged, the Flames could use a Rick Nash or Grabner to boost scoring and a Desharnais for depth at center.  They have no first rounders to deal, so they'd have to give up quality.  Dougie Hamilton, Mark Jankowski  and Rasmus Andersson for McDonagh, Grabner, Desharnais and Holden?

Minnesota:  The Wild occupy the last wild card slot in the West, but are a loss away from being out of the post-season.  Their playoff odds are 53% and they've been riding a hot streak.   They could use some goal scoring help...with only four players in double digits.  Suter is 33 and going nowhere and Spurgeon is too valuable to deal, but could Matt Dumba be a piece of a deadline deal?  Could a homegrown Ryan McDonagh guarantee a playoff spot?  Matt Dumba, Kirill Kaprisov and  a #1 pick for McDonagh and Nash?

Winnipeg:  The Jets are in first place in the Central Division, riding a hot streak (7 wins in 10 games). "The Athletic" has them as a lock for the playoffs with a 7% chance of winning the Cup. They've suffered some serious injuries that may take their toll on the team.  We've previously speculated that a Jacob Trouba deal (out for six weeks) could make sense.  Trouba is an RFA with a negative history of salary negotiations with them team.  Mark Schiefele is also out with an injury so the team could use some offensive help.  Would they be willing to deal youth for playoff insurance and experience?  Jacob Trouba, Kyle Connor and a 1st round pick for McDonagh, Nash and Desharnais?

It's fun to play armchair GM, but there's no way of knowing if these deals are even close to reality.  How highly do NHL GM's value a Ryan McDonagh?  The fact that he is under an attractive contract through next season is a definite plus.  His leadership and skill are undisputed.

If traded will the Rangers end up with impact players who will be with the team for years?  A lot of folks have likened a potential McDonagh deal with the Keith Yandle trade.  Yandle was a top four defenseman for Phoenix who  was also under contract for another season.  The Yotes traded Yandle, Chris Summers and a 4th round pick for Anthony Duclair, John Moore and a first and second round pick.  The Coyotes also picked up a chunk of Yandle's salary.   What did Arizona get that they can point to today?   Anthony Duclair hasn't panned out and was dealt to the Blackhawks.  John Moore was not offered a contract and signed with the Devils. The second round pick they acquired was flipped for two more picks they are waiting to develop. The Coyotes flipped the first round pick in a deal with Detroit that got them Jacob Chycrun who had an outstanding rookie season last year, but has missed most of this season due to knee surgery.

The moral of the story is that there is no such thing as a sure thing in the NHL these days.  It's really vital to try to minimize the odds of failing.  Ryan McDonagh is a solid asset that should bring a strong return.  If the team gives up on this season and tries to rebuild on the fly, they need to get real assets back.  Those assets are out there. It's up to fate to get the stars to align so that the Rangers can get real value for their marketable players. A few more efforts like the Toronto game and the deals will begin sooner than you think.

Ten Game Recap....Not So Good

So, we just concluded the fourth ten game segment of this wacky hockey season.  The prior sequence ended with a bad loss to Chicago, but it was time for optimism as the team had lost only five games in regulation out of the last 20 and were flirting with second place in the Metropolitan Division.

Now, the team is in turmoil, injury ridden and threatened with a wholesale breakup.  That's what happens when you go 4-6-0 in the ultra competitive Met Division.  We predicted 13 points out of 20 with ten more likely.  They ended up with eight.

The good news is that they won the games that they HAD to win.   What they didn't do was win the toss-ups and they lost all of the games that would have been upsets.  The sequence started with a shootout win over Arizona on the road.  It's a warning sign when you eke out a win by shootout over the worst team in the NHL.  They then went into their mid-season vacation with a tight 2-1 loss to Vegas.  Optimists would claim that the Blueshirts could have won the game and they gave one of the best teams in the league a tough fight.

Game three was the disaster at MSG versus the Islanders, a 7-2 thrashing that raised the decibel level of the calls for a shakeup.  They followed that with a desultory 5-2 loss on the road in Pittsburgh as they blew a 2-1 first period lead.

"Team Inconsistency" then played one of their best games of the year by whipping the surging Philadelphia Flyers, 5-1.   They then made it two in a row by sneaking by the Buffalo Sabres...another game where the Rangers barely beat a bad team.

The finished with the four game road trip, winning only once.  They held on for a tight loss against the hottest team in hockey, the Avalanche.  The penalty kill fell apart in one period and it cost them a game in Los Angeles,  After establishing a 2-0 lead and dominating a fragile Kings team, an ill-advised instigator penalty by Brendan Smith led to a PP goal and the team fell apart.   They weren't competitive against Anaheim and ended the road trip on a positive with a 6-5 nail biter in San Jose.  It's a clear indication that this season is in trouble when a third period 5-3 lead never felt safe, even with ten minutes left in the game.

There were some positives.  The team finally scored a shorthanded goal and quickly added two more.  Rick Nash broke out of his funk and scored two goals each in three games.  Ryan McDonagh came back from an injury and Peter Holland proved he could be a solid fourth liner.  Pavel Buchnevich demonstrated why he should be getting first line minutes and Tony DeAngelo showed signs that he may actually be an NHL defenseman.

There were a lot of negatives.  Kevin Shattenkirk decided to have surgery on his meniscus.  Chris Kreider remains out.  Kevin Hayes missed  five games with a lower body injury and his loss personified the lack of depth at center.  Ondrej Pavelec came crashing back to earth, pulled in the Islander loss followed by a mediocre performance in relief of an awful Lundqvist in Anaheim and a shaky game in the win in San Jose. 

Porbably most disturbing was Alain Vigneault 's treatment of J.T. Miller.  True, Miller commited an egregious mistake that resulted in a Los Angeles goal, but Vigneault then benched Miller for the last two periods.  The team's third leading scorer was stapled  to the bench in a tight game when the Rangers were missing Hayes and Kreider and desperately needed offense.   Asked post game, Vigneault's explanation was a terse "I saw enough."  Of course, Miller responded with a three point, +3 game in San Jose where he was named the number one star.  Sure, you know that Vigneault will take credit for pushing Miller to excel, but Miller is not a kid anymore.  He's 24 and in his 5th season in the NHL.  It's shortsighted to punish a key offensive player like Miller in a crucial game where they need offense.  Sorry, I just disagree with the benching.

The Next Ten Games

What to look forward to in the next ten games?  Who the hell knows?   We all know what the team needs to do.  They need to win seven out of the ten games and get points in eight out of the ten. They do that and they will establish themselves as a playoff team.   What are the odds?

They play ten games in 18 days with four of the games at Madison Square Garden. They only have one set of back to back games (the last two at Ottawa and home vs. the Flyers).   They open at home against a streaking Maple Leafs team that just dismantled the Islanders in Toronto.  A quick trip to Nashville and Dallas will be a challenge.  They come home to play Boston and Calgary then have a four game road trip to Winnipeg, Minnesota, Brooklyn and Ottawa.  They finish by hosting the Flyers in a Sunday matinee game.  

The only "soft" game is against the Senators who are headed for a lottery pick.  Toronto and Boston are assured of playoff slots and are both playing well.  The rest of the games will be against teams as desperate for points as the Rangers.  

To predict the point total for the next ten games is impossible.  I think that 12 or even 14 points is achievable, if the team is firing on all cylinders.  I could also see them only getting six points out of 20.  Circle Thursday, February 15 on your calendars.  That's when the Rangers play the Islanders at Barclays.  They owe the Isles a spanking after the humiliation last month.  If they don't do it, the season could be lost. 

After the next ten games, the team will play three more before the trade deadline.  If they get off to a bad start  in the next few games it is entirely possible that they could pull the trigger on a deal before the deadline.  To say that the next ten game sequence is the most important series of games to the future of the team is not an understatement.   It will be interesting. 

Some Notes

The Rangers acquired enforcer Cody McLeod on waivers from Nashville just before the All Star break.  He will make his debut, wearing #8, against Toronto replacing Vinni Lettieri.  He's not a scorer, with only one goal and one assist in 23 games this season.   He did score 15 goals in one season for Colorado back in 2009.  He has 72 minutes in penalties this season compared to the entire Ranger team total of 394 minutes.  He's third in the league with six fighting majors this season, one more than the entire Ranger team.  He led the league in fights last year. FYI, Brendan Smith leads the team in penalty minutes with 65 this season.   

Why did they get him?  At first the reports were that he would be playing in Hartford, ostensibly as "protection" for Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson.   The sell-off conspiracy theorists pointed to him as a depth acquisition with the imminent departure of Nash and Grabner.  It's not like the Blueshirts have been pushed around, but knowing Vigneault's affection for Tanner Glass, it is no small wonder that McLeod is playing  over Vinni Lettieri.  

How ARE the kids doing?  Filip Chytil has had an outstanding rookie season with 20 points in 24 games including seven goals and a +4 rating. Lias Andersson has two assists in three games since coming over from Sweden.    Even more impressive, the Wolf Pack have won five games in a row for the first time this season.  A player to watch is 21 year old Russian goalie Alexandar Georgiev.  An off-season free agent signee, he got off to an awful start with a record of 4-11-2, a GAA north of 3.40 and a save percentage of .880.  In his last five games he is 5-0 with a GAA under 1.40 and a save percentage of .958 and two shutouts.  If he keeps this up, we may see him actually playing this season in the NHL (he backed up Pavelec once).  He was a star in Finnish Liga and is a Benoit Allaire project. 

At least there is some hope for the future. 

The Price You Pay

There was one immediate response to my last post: 

"The real problem is the Rangers historic inability to draft offensive players that remain productive over lengthy careers.  The last great batch was Amonte, Weight, and Kovalev.  But that seems like a lifetime ago."

While that appears to be the problem, there is one simple reason that the Rangers don't have a stud on their roster.  They just haven't been bad enough.   Look at the following chart listing the top 25 scorers in the NHL this season and their draft history:

Top Scorers 2017-18

1. Nikita Kucherov - #58 - 2nd round 2011
2. Nathan McKinnon - #1 - 1st round, 2013
3. Phil Kessel - #5 - 1st round 2006
4, Steve Stamkos - #1 - 1st round 2008
5. John Tavares -  #1 - 1st round 2009
6. Claude Giroux - #22 - 1st round - 2006
7. Johnny Gaudreau - #104 - 4th round - 2011
8. Jakob Vorachek - #7 - 1st round - 2007
9. Sidney Crosby - #1 - 1st round - 2005
10. Connor McDavid - #1 - 1st round - 2015
11. Blake Wheeler -  #5 - 1st round  - 2004
12. Josh Bailey - #9 - 1st round - 2008
13. Alex Ovechkin #1 - 1st round - 2004
14. Evgeni Malkin # 2 - 1st round - 2004
15. Anze Kopitar - #11 - 1st round - 2005
16. Matthew Barzal - # 16 - 1st round - 2015
17. Brayden Schenn - #5 - 1st round - 2009
18. Brad Marchand - #71 - 3rd round - 2006
19. Sean Couturier - #8 - 1st round - 2011
20. Patrick Kane - #1 - 1st round - 2007
21. Jack Eichel  - #2 - 1st round - 2015
22. Alexander Radulov - #15 - 1st round - 2004
23. Taylor Hall - #1 - 1st round - 2010
24. John Klingberg - #131 - 5th round - 2010
25. Jamie Benn - #129 - 5th round - 2007

All if these players were drafted from 2004 to 2015.  Twenty out of the top 25 scorers were first round picks with 16 out of the top 25 scorers selected in the top ten. In those years the New York Rangers have had ten first round picks, but only TWO picks in the top ten.   Here are re the first rounders:

2004 - #6 Al Montoya, #19 Lori Korpikoski
2005 - #12 Marc Staal
2006 - #21 Bobby Sanguinetti
2007 - #17 Alexei Cherepanov
2008 - #20 Michael Del Zotto
2009 - #19 Chris Kreider
2010 - #10 Dylan McIlrath
2011 - #15 J.T. Miller
2012 - #28 Brady Skjei

We can criticize the Rangers draft history, but the team did pretty well with Staal, Del Zotto, Kreider, Miller and Skjei, considering where they picked (12 to 28).   You could classify Montoya and McIlrath as outright disasters.   Sanguinetti and Korpikoski were disappointments and Cherepanov was a tragedy.  A star in the making, he died during a KHL game from a heart ailment. 

The team traded away their first round picks from 2013-2015.   Their 2013 pick was #19 and Columbus used the pick on Kerby Rychel who hasn't made an impact.  Their 2014 pick was #28 and was traded from Tampa to the Islanders who selected Josh Ho-Sang.  Ho-Sang has shown flashes, but is still struggling to crack the lineup.  Their 2015 pick was #28 and again, was traded from Tampa to the Isles who selected Anthony Beauvillier who is developing into a reliable forward. 

The question is was it worth including the 2013 pick in the Rick Nash deal?  Certainly if you look at the return Columbus got on the pick.   Their 2014 and 2015 picks were part of  the Martin St. Louis deal. Would you trade the Rangers ride to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2014 for Ho-Sang and Beauvillier?  In hindsight you may say yes, but in June 2014,  I think not. 

So, the price you pay for having a competitive team for the last 12 seasons is you simply don't get the high draft picks you need.    You end up with good, but not great players.  If you are lucky, you steal a first rounder like Ryan McDonagh or Mika Zibanejad or you strike gold with a Henrik Lundqvist (#205 in 2000) or a Pavel Buchnevich (#75 in 2013).  

The 2017-18 Rangers are just not bad enough.  Looking at the top players in the NHL, it's clear that you need a lottery pick in order to draft an impact player  and there is no way that the Rangers will fall that far.  Is it worth it to be a league doormat and miss the playoffs for years?  Ask a Devils or Islanders fan.   Since 2004 the Devils played 11 rounds in the playoffs with one trip to the Finals, missing the playoffs six times (the last five years in a row).  The Islanders played five playoff rounds and missed the post season eight times. For that, the Devils got Nico Hischier and the Islanders got John Tavares.  Ranger fans got 22 rounds of playoff hockey including  a trip to the Finals and two trips to the Conference Finals.

The real crime is that the Rangers missed the playoffs for seven straight years (1997 to 2004) and have virtually nothing to show for it.   They blew top picks on Manny Malhotra, Pavel Brendl, Jamie Lundmark, Dan Blackburn, Hugh Jessiman and the aforementioned Al Montoya.   The fact that the team came out of that mess and have been able to contend for over a decade is astounding.  The biggest reason was drafting Henrik Lundqvist at #205.  But they also found these late round gems:

#51 Derek Stepan
#54  Artem Anisimov
#60 Brandon Dubinsky
#75  Pavel Buchnevich
#80 Anthony Duclair
#111 Dale Weise
#127  Ryan Callahan
#157  Jesper Fast
#168 Carl Hagelin

In those seven years they always just missed making the playoffs, finishing in 4th place six times and fifth only once.  They never finished dead last.   Here are some of the star players who went to the  bottom dwellers from 1997-2004:  Vincent Lecavalier,  David Legwand, Brad Stuart, Patrick Stefan, Daniel & Henrik Sedin,  Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jason Spezza, Rick Nash, Kari Lehtonen, Jay Bouwmeester, Marc-Andre Fleury, Eric Staal, Nathan Horton,  Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.  The Rangers never had a chance at any of them. 

Oh, and those three players mentioned in the first paragraph?  Tony Amonte was a 4th round pick in 1988 ( #68).   Doug Weight was #34m drafted in the  2nd round in 1990.  The only true first rounder of the three was Alexei Kovalev, drafted #15 in the 1st round  in 1991.  

So, Ranger fans, here is the question.  Are  you really willing to root for a team that plays like Arizona for two years and is out of the playoff picture by Halloween?   And then are you willing to wait the 2-3 years for those two top ten picks to develop into genuine NHL strars?   Jeff Gorton is trying to remake this team on the fly.  The Stepan deal was a way to do it.  Lias Andersson will be in the NHL next season and Tony DeAngelo may still become a useful offensive force.  They may have struck late first round gold with Chytil.  

Henrik Lundqvist still has a few more years of star goaltending left and the Rangers must take advantage of that.  The alternative is to trade away all of their assets and tank for a lottery pick.  Knowing the Rangers' luck, they would finish last overall and be bounced down to the #6 pick in the lottery.  Let's see what happens. 

Be Careful What You Wish For

The Rangers All-Star break extends until Thursday night.  That means that when the game is over there will be 25 days and about 17 hours until the trade deadline on February 26th,  That's almost 26 days for the team to come together and prove that they are a contender or else risk the wholesale dismantling of the team.  Larry Brooks  has reported that the Rangers are prepared to be in a "sell" mode at the deadline with all of their UFA's available as well as some stalwarts  such as Ryan McDonagh and Mats Zuccarello.  The expectation is that the Rangers are willing to part with Nash, Grabner, Holden, Desharnais, McDonagh and Zuccarello in the hope that they will reap a bounty of first round draft picks and fine young talent.

We've been down this road before.  In 2004, the Rangers did the same thing.  They traded Leetch, Nedved, Kovalev, Malakhov, Rucinsky, DeVries, Simon, Barnaby & Markenen.  For all of those deals and all of the drafts picks they acquired, they really came out of it with Blair Betts, Brandon Dubinky (sort of) and Marc Staal (sort of). 

Brian Leetch, possibly the best USA born player to ever compete in the NHL was dealt to Toronto for Maxim Kondratiev, Jarko Immonen and two draft picks (Lori Korpikoski and Michael Sauer).  Kondratiev and Immonen were busts, Michael Sauer had to retire due to concussions and Korpikoski was traded for Enver Lisin (who?). 

Petr Nedved and goalie Jussi Markenen were exhanged for Dwight Helminen, Dane Byers and Steve Valiquette.  At least the Rangers got a decent television analyst out of this deal.

Alexei Kovalev fetched Josef Balej and draft pick Bruce Graham, both busts.

Vladimir Malakhov went to the Flyers for Rick Kozak (who?) and a draft pick  that was part of a trade to Atlanta for a higher pick that became Marc Staal.

Nothing came out of the other deals (though picks acquired for Matthew Barnaby were used in a deal for the pick that became Brandon Dubinsky). 

The most significant deal came in January when the team acquired Jaromir Jagr for Anson Carter, but that was not part of the player purge and Jagr's great years as a Ranger came after the lockout of 2004-05.

At the time of the purge, the team was 23-31-12 and had won only five out of their last 23 games. They were destined to finish 25th out of 30 teams.  With the sixth overall draft pick, they selected Al Montoya who is still in the NHL having played 162 games in nine seasons for six teams and never wearing a Ranger sweater. The Capitals and Penguins finished with about ten fewer points than the Rangers and drafted Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.   In what was a weak draft, the Rangers passed on Drew Stafford, Alexander Radulov, Travis Zajac, Mike Green and David Krejci among others.

So, what's the point?  The point is that unless the team gets young NHL talent or top ten draft picks, it will be a complete crapshoot.  If the Rangers give up on this 2017-18 season, the chances of a "rebuild on the fly" that actually works is probably a 50-50 proposition (or even less). 

When it comes to trading for young talent it is a roll of the dice.  The Predators struck gold when they stole Filip Forsberg from Washington (for Martin Erat and Michael Latta).  To a lesser degree, the Rangers did the same when they acquired Mika Zibanejad.   The other option is to acquire a player who they think will become a star, but has not gotten there yet.  Does that sound a lot like Tony DeAngelo?  If the team trades Zuccarello or McDonagh they need to get proven young NHL talent, not a project.  Nash or Grabner will get you a project.

When it comes to draft picks it is even worse.  The biggest problem is that the teams who will be "buying" will only be able to offer late first round picks or late second round picks.   There is little chance that the team will end up with a top pick that is guaranteed for NHL stardom.  The one factor in the Rangers' favor is that the 2018 entry draft is considered on par with 2015 and 2016  drafts with the first round particularly solid. That certainly will affect the team's decision to keep or sell.

We took a look at the top young players in the NHL compiling a list of the top 50 players under the age of 25 this season, (I didn't include goalies).   The list is a mix of lists compiled before the season by SBS Nation and "The Athletic."    That's why no Nico Hischier or Matt Barzal on the list.  So, what are the odds of a draft pick becoming a top NHL player?    One thing is absolutely clear.  If you want to be sure you are picking an NHL player with potential for stardom, it HAS to be a top ten pick.

Of the 18 centers in the list, 14 were top ten selections.   Furthermore, only two centers were picked above 16th in the draft.  Vincent Trocheck was selected #64 and took a longer road to the NHL, establishing himself as a top player in 2015-16.  Brayden Point went #79 overall, but had been projected as a first rounder, but dropped due to concerns about his size.

Looking at wingers, there were more later picks on the list.  Twenty wingers made the top 50 list with half picked in the top ten and 14 going in the first round.  Late first rounders included Anthony Mantha (#20), David Pastrnak (#25) and Rickard Rakell (#30).  Later round gems numbered six with the latest being Viktor Arvidsson of the Predators who was picked #112.

13 defensemen made the list and of the 13, eight were top ten selections in their drafts.  Oscar Klefbom was a late first round selection at #19.  Four defenseman on the list were late round selections including Shane Gostisbehere at #78, Colton Parayko at #86, Jacob Slavin at #120 and John Klingberg at #131. 

So, what does it mean?   First, if you are a top ten selection, it is pretty much assured that you will be an NHL player.  From 2011-16, there were 60 top ten selections in the entry draft and 31 of them made the list of top NHLer's under 25. 

Furthermore, only four players selected in the top ten since 2011 are not NHL regulars (or semi-regulars). 

After the top ten picks, it becomes much more of a crapshoot.  Even the first round is not a guarantee.  First round picks after the top ten are not a sure thing with only seven of the 60 players chosen in the first round, but not in the top ten making the top 51 players list.

Rangers fans will be thrilled to know that the only top ten pick by the Rangers since 2005 was Dylan McIlrath at #9 in 2010 and he is one of five players picked in the first round  since 2010 who are not regulars in the NHL

More depressing information for Ranger fans?  In 2011, the Rangers took J.T. Miller 15th overall, passing on Oscar Klefbom, Rickard Rakell, Brandon Saad, Nikita Kucherov and Vincent Trocheck.  Perhaps worst is that when they selected Steven Fogarty at 72nd overall, Johnny Gaudreau was still available.   Fogarty is in his third year with the Wolfpack without much of a shot at the NHL.

In 2012, the Rangers picked Boo Nieves at #59, passing on Shayne Gostisbehere, Colton Parayko and Jacob Slavin.  Ouch.

The bottom line is a purge only makes sense if you get quality in exchange.  Trading Ryan McDonagh to Toronto makes sense if you get William Nylander or Morgan Rielly in return.  Late first rounders or second round picks in exchange for Michael Grabner or Rick Nash?   The team will very likely end up with a player of the caliber of Jimmy Vesey or Nick Holden who will be NHL ready in 3-4 years.  Is it really worth giving up on this season if the team is three points out of a playoff berth? 

Injuries can be a factor.  The Winnipeg Jets are in first place in the Central Division with a nine point cushion over the last wild card team.  They just learned that Jacob Trouba will miss 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury.   Already down Mark Scheifele for another month, if the Jets start losing they may be ready to deal.  Would it make sense to trade McDonagh, Nash and Desharnais to the Jets for the injured Trouba and rookie LW Kyle Connor?

If by February 26 the downward spiral has taken the Rangers out of contention for a wild card spot, it will be time to sell, but only if they are clearly not going to make the playoffs.  History has proven that the return just isn't that great.

Here are the top 50 players in the NHL under the age of 25 and their draft history.

#1 Picks (the only #1 not on the list is Nail Yakupov. now with Colorado)
2011 - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Oiler C
2013 - Nathan McKinnon - Avalanche C
2014 - Aaron Ekblad - Panthers D
2015 - Connor McDavid - Oilers C
2016 - Auston Matthews - Leafs C

#2 Picks (Injury ridden Columbus D-man Ryan Murray was #2 in 2012)
2011 - Gabriel Landeskog - Avalanche W
2013 - Alexander Barkov - Panthers C
2014 - Sam Reinhart - Sabres W
2015 - Jack Eichel - Sabres C
2016 - Patrik Laine - Jets W

#3 Picks
2011 - Jonathan Huberdeau - Panthers W
2012 - Alex Galchenyuk - Canadiens C
2013 - Jonathan Drouin - Canadiens W
2014 - Leon Draisaitl - Oilers C

#4 Picks
2013 - Seth Jones - Blue Jackets D
2015 - Mitch Marner - Leafs W
2016 - Jesse Puljujarvi - Oilers W

#5 Pick
2012 - Morgan Rielly - Leafs W

#6 Picks
2011 - Mika Zibanejad - Rangers C
2012 - Hampus Lindholm - Ducks D
2013 - Sean Monahan - Flames C
2016 - Matthew Tkachuk - Flames W

#7 Picks
2011 - Mark Scheifele - Jets C
2015 - Ivan Provorov - Flyers D

#8 Picks
2013 - Rasmus Ristolainen - Sabres D
2014 - William Nylander - Leafs C
2015 - Zach Werenski - Blue Jackets D

#9 Picks
2011 - Dougie Hamilton - Flames D
2012 - Jacob Trouba - Jets D
2013 - Bo Horvat - Canucks C
2014 - Nikolaj Ehlers - Jets W

#11 Pick
2012 - Filip Forsberg  - Predators W

#14 Pick
2013 - Alexander Wennberg - Blue Jackets C

#15 Pick
2014 - Dylan Larkin - Red Wings C

#19 Pick
2011 - Oscar Klefbom - Oilers D

#20 Pick
2013 - Anthony Mantha - Red Wings W

#25  Pick
2014 - David Pastrnak - Bruins W

#30 Pick
2011 - Rickard Rakell - Ducks W

#35 Pick
2015 - Sebastian Aho - Hurricanes W

#43 Pick
2011 - Brandon Saad - Blackhawks W

#58 Pick
2011 - Nikita Kucherov - Lightning W

#64 Pick
2011 - Vincent Trocheck - Panthers C

#77 Pick
2013 - Jake Guentzel - Penguins W

#78 Pick
2012 - Shayne Gostisbehere - Flyers D

#79 Pick
2014 - Braden Point - Lightning C

#86 Pick
2012 - Colton Parayko - Blues D

#104 Pick
2011 - Johnny Gaudreau - Flames W

#112  Pick
2014 - Viktor Arvidsson - Predators @

#120 Pick
2012 - Jacob Slavin - Hurricanes D

#131 Pick
2010 - John Klingberg - Stars D

Trade Winds

The Rangers are halfway through their western road trip and the injury ridden Blueshirts are winless.  The frustrating part is that both losses were one goal games.  They played quite well in Colorado against the hottest team in the NHL (they won their tenth in a row in Toronto tonight), but couldn't stop Nathan MacKinnon who has quietly risen to be the second leading scorer in the NHL.   Same story in Los Angeles, just more depressing.  The Rangers jumped out to a two goal lead after one period, but an ill-advised fight by Brendan Smith led to a Kings power play that jump-started their offense and led to three power play goals in the second period. So...0-2 with two games the Rangers contended in, but couldn't generate enough offense to win. 

The loss to Los Angeles combined with Philadelphia's OT win in Washington dropped the Rangers into a three-way tie for the last wild card spot.  The trade "noise" is increasing with more speculation about Ryan McDonagh being a prime candidate for a deal.

The reason is a simple one.  McDonagh has one year left on his team friendly contract after this season.   You can imagine that after six years as one of the league's best bargains, he will be looking for a big payday.   The big problem?  He turns 30 just as his contract expires meaning he'll be seeking a long term contract that will pay him big bucks as his play deteriorates as he gets older.  Frankly, he's in his eighth season of playing a team high 24 minutes per game, tough minutes that have left him prone to injury. 

Compare McDonagh to Erik Karlsson.  Ottawa's Norris Trophy winner is one year younger than McDonagh and has one year left on his deal after this season.  Speculation is he will  be seeking $10 million per year, less than Shea Weber's $12 million annually, but still in the salary stratosphere.  While McDonagh won't be able to get Karlsson money, it's not unreasonable to expect a deal in the vicinity of $8 million a year for 5-6 years. 

So, do the Rangers trade Ryan McDonagh at the deadline to a team that could see him as the last piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle? 

Why Yes

Looking at the Keith Yandle deal as the type of return they could get, the Coyotes got Anthony Duclair, one of the best prospects in the Rangers system, defenseman John Moore and a first and second round pick.    A deal like that could go a long way towards rebuilding the Rangers, especially if they could get a stud forward.  Combined with draft picks acquired for Grabner and Nash at the deadline would allow the team to stock up on young talent.  Frankly, it's getting tiring to see the Devils get Taylor Hall, the Islanders get Jordan Eberle and talent like Kyle Turris going to Nashville.

The bottom line is the return for McDonagh could be huge and it's a one time opportunity.  It's a deal the team has to make.

Why No

Even though the Rangers are staggering through this season, they are not out of the playoffs by any means.  If the team can hang in, they will be getting Kreider and Shattenkirk back for the post season and in this NHL, once you are in, anything can happen.  Lundqvist is having a Vezina Trophy caliber season and it is too early to just give up.  

With another year left on McDonagh's contract that means he will be around for the 2018-19 season, a season that should see an improvement.  Vinni Lettieri, Boo Nieves and Tony DeAngelo will be a year older. Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil are expected to be meaningful contributors and Marc Staal should be bought out.   With Rick Nash's contract off the books, the team can lock down their RFA's (Miller, Hayes, Skjei and Vesey).  The Rangers have Ty Ronning, a young forward in the WHL who has 42 goals in 59 games.  He could be ready to make the jump to the NHL at age 21.  His only downside is that he is one inch taller than Mats Zuccarello and he's ten pounds lighter.  At any rate, it's too early to wave the white flag. 

Another big reason to keep McDonagh is that a winning NHL team needs a stud defenseman.  The Penguins have Kris Letang, the Kings have Drew Doughty, the Blackhawks have Duncan Keith.  That's the Cup winners.  The runner ups include P.K. Subban in Nashville,  Britt Burns in San Jose and Victor Hedman in Tampa.   I just don't see Kevin Shattenkirk or Brady Skjei in that role and it is highly unlikely that any team would trade a young, top NHL defenseman for a McDonagh rental for a little over a year.   

Keep what you've got until you can get better.   All-Star defensemen are harder to come by than top forwards, it's just a fact.  And Ryan McDonagh is an All-Star.