The Price You Pay

There was one immediate response to my last post: 

"The real problem is the Rangers historic inability to draft offensive players that remain productive over lengthy careers.  The last great batch was Amonte, Weight, and Kovalev.  But that seems like a lifetime ago."

While that appears to be the problem, there is one simple reason that the Rangers don't have a stud on their roster.  They just haven't been bad enough.   Look at the following chart listing the top 25 scorers in the NHL this season and their draft history:

Top Scorers 2017-18

1. Nikita Kucherov - #58 - 2nd round 2011
2. Nathan McKinnon - #1 - 1st round, 2013
3. Phil Kessel - #5 - 1st round 2006
4, Steve Stamkos - #1 - 1st round 2008
5. John Tavares -  #1 - 1st round 2009
6. Claude Giroux - #22 - 1st round - 2006
7. Johnny Gaudreau - #104 - 4th round - 2011
8. Jakob Vorachek - #7 - 1st round - 2007
9. Sidney Crosby - #1 - 1st round - 2005
10. Connor McDavid - #1 - 1st round - 2015
11. Blake Wheeler -  #5 - 1st round  - 2004
12. Josh Bailey - #9 - 1st round - 2008
13. Alex Ovechkin #1 - 1st round - 2004
14. Evgeni Malkin # 2 - 1st round - 2004
15. Anze Kopitar - #11 - 1st round - 2005
16. Matthew Barzal - # 16 - 1st round - 2015
17. Brayden Schenn - #5 - 1st round - 2009
18. Brad Marchand - #71 - 3rd round - 2006
19. Sean Couturier - #8 - 1st round - 2011
20. Patrick Kane - #1 - 1st round - 2007
21. Jack Eichel  - #2 - 1st round - 2015
22. Alexander Radulov - #15 - 1st round - 2004
23. Taylor Hall - #1 - 1st round - 2010
24. John Klingberg - #131 - 5th round - 2010
25. Jamie Benn - #129 - 5th round - 2007

All if these players were drafted from 2004 to 2015.  Twenty out of the top 25 scorers were first round picks with 16 out of the top 25 scorers selected in the top ten. In those years the New York Rangers have had ten first round picks, but only TWO picks in the top ten.   Here are re the first rounders:

2004 - #6 Al Montoya, #19 Lori Korpikoski
2005 - #12 Marc Staal
2006 - #21 Bobby Sanguinetti
2007 - #17 Alexei Cherepanov
2008 - #20 Michael Del Zotto
2009 - #19 Chris Kreider
2010 - #10 Dylan McIlrath
2011 - #15 J.T. Miller
2012 - #28 Brady Skjei

We can criticize the Rangers draft history, but the team did pretty well with Staal, Del Zotto, Kreider, Miller and Skjei, considering where they picked (12 to 28).   You could classify Montoya and McIlrath as outright disasters.   Sanguinetti and Korpikoski were disappointments and Cherepanov was a tragedy.  A star in the making, he died during a KHL game from a heart ailment. 

The team traded away their first round picks from 2013-2015.   Their 2013 pick was #19 and Columbus used the pick on Kerby Rychel who hasn't made an impact.  Their 2014 pick was #28 and was traded from Tampa to the Islanders who selected Josh Ho-Sang.  Ho-Sang has shown flashes, but is still struggling to crack the lineup.  Their 2015 pick was #28 and again, was traded from Tampa to the Isles who selected Anthony Beauvillier who is developing into a reliable forward. 

The question is was it worth including the 2013 pick in the Rick Nash deal?  Certainly if you look at the return Columbus got on the pick.   Their 2014 and 2015 picks were part of  the Martin St. Louis deal. Would you trade the Rangers ride to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2014 for Ho-Sang and Beauvillier?  In hindsight you may say yes, but in June 2014,  I think not. 

So, the price you pay for having a competitive team for the last 12 seasons is you simply don't get the high draft picks you need.    You end up with good, but not great players.  If you are lucky, you steal a first rounder like Ryan McDonagh or Mika Zibanejad or you strike gold with a Henrik Lundqvist (#205 in 2000) or a Pavel Buchnevich (#75 in 2013).  

The 2017-18 Rangers are just not bad enough.  Looking at the top players in the NHL, it's clear that you need a lottery pick in order to draft an impact player  and there is no way that the Rangers will fall that far.  Is it worth it to be a league doormat and miss the playoffs for years?  Ask a Devils or Islanders fan.   Since 2004 the Devils played 11 rounds in the playoffs with one trip to the Finals, missing the playoffs six times (the last five years in a row).  The Islanders played five playoff rounds and missed the post season eight times. For that, the Devils got Nico Hischier and the Islanders got John Tavares.  Ranger fans got 22 rounds of playoff hockey including  a trip to the Finals and two trips to the Conference Finals.

The real crime is that the Rangers missed the playoffs for seven straight years (1997 to 2004) and have virtually nothing to show for it.   They blew top picks on Manny Malhotra, Pavel Brendl, Jamie Lundmark, Dan Blackburn, Hugh Jessiman and the aforementioned Al Montoya.   The fact that the team came out of that mess and have been able to contend for over a decade is astounding.  The biggest reason was drafting Henrik Lundqvist at #205.  But they also found these late round gems:

#51 Derek Stepan
#54  Artem Anisimov
#60 Brandon Dubinsky
#75  Pavel Buchnevich
#80 Anthony Duclair
#111 Dale Weise
#127  Ryan Callahan
#157  Jesper Fast
#168 Carl Hagelin

In those seven years they always just missed making the playoffs, finishing in 4th place six times and fifth only once.  They never finished dead last.   Here are some of the star players who went to the  bottom dwellers from 1997-2004:  Vincent Lecavalier,  David Legwand, Brad Stuart, Patrick Stefan, Daniel & Henrik Sedin,  Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jason Spezza, Rick Nash, Kari Lehtonen, Jay Bouwmeester, Marc-Andre Fleury, Eric Staal, Nathan Horton,  Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin.  The Rangers never had a chance at any of them. 

Oh, and those three players mentioned in the first paragraph?  Tony Amonte was a 4th round pick in 1988 ( #68).   Doug Weight was #34m drafted in the  2nd round in 1990.  The only true first rounder of the three was Alexei Kovalev, drafted #15 in the 1st round  in 1991.  

So, Ranger fans, here is the question.  Are  you really willing to root for a team that plays like Arizona for two years and is out of the playoff picture by Halloween?   And then are you willing to wait the 2-3 years for those two top ten picks to develop into genuine NHL strars?   Jeff Gorton is trying to remake this team on the fly.  The Stepan deal was a way to do it.  Lias Andersson will be in the NHL next season and Tony DeAngelo may still become a useful offensive force.  They may have struck late first round gold with Chytil.  

Henrik Lundqvist still has a few more years of star goaltending left and the Rangers must take advantage of that.  The alternative is to trade away all of their assets and tank for a lottery pick.  Knowing the Rangers' luck, they would finish last overall and be bounced down to the #6 pick in the lottery.  Let's see what happens.