Trade Winds

The Rangers are halfway through their western road trip and the injury ridden Blueshirts are winless.  The frustrating part is that both losses were one goal games.  They played quite well in Colorado against the hottest team in the NHL (they won their tenth in a row in Toronto tonight), but couldn't stop Nathan MacKinnon who has quietly risen to be the second leading scorer in the NHL.   Same story in Los Angeles, just more depressing.  The Rangers jumped out to a two goal lead after one period, but an ill-advised fight by Brendan Smith led to a Kings power play that jump-started their offense and led to three power play goals in the second period. So...0-2 with two games the Rangers contended in, but couldn't generate enough offense to win. 

The loss to Los Angeles combined with Philadelphia's OT win in Washington dropped the Rangers into a three-way tie for the last wild card spot.  The trade "noise" is increasing with more speculation about Ryan McDonagh being a prime candidate for a deal.

The reason is a simple one.  McDonagh has one year left on his team friendly contract after this season.   You can imagine that after six years as one of the league's best bargains, he will be looking for a big payday.   The big problem?  He turns 30 just as his contract expires meaning he'll be seeking a long term contract that will pay him big bucks as his play deteriorates as he gets older.  Frankly, he's in his eighth season of playing a team high 24 minutes per game, tough minutes that have left him prone to injury. 

Compare McDonagh to Erik Karlsson.  Ottawa's Norris Trophy winner is one year younger than McDonagh and has one year left on his deal after this season.  Speculation is he will  be seeking $10 million per year, less than Shea Weber's $12 million annually, but still in the salary stratosphere.  While McDonagh won't be able to get Karlsson money, it's not unreasonable to expect a deal in the vicinity of $8 million a year for 5-6 years. 

So, do the Rangers trade Ryan McDonagh at the deadline to a team that could see him as the last piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle? 

Why Yes

Looking at the Keith Yandle deal as the type of return they could get, the Coyotes got Anthony Duclair, one of the best prospects in the Rangers system, defenseman John Moore and a first and second round pick.    A deal like that could go a long way towards rebuilding the Rangers, especially if they could get a stud forward.  Combined with draft picks acquired for Grabner and Nash at the deadline would allow the team to stock up on young talent.  Frankly, it's getting tiring to see the Devils get Taylor Hall, the Islanders get Jordan Eberle and talent like Kyle Turris going to Nashville.

The bottom line is the return for McDonagh could be huge and it's a one time opportunity.  It's a deal the team has to make.

Why No

Even though the Rangers are staggering through this season, they are not out of the playoffs by any means.  If the team can hang in, they will be getting Kreider and Shattenkirk back for the post season and in this NHL, once you are in, anything can happen.  Lundqvist is having a Vezina Trophy caliber season and it is too early to just give up.  

With another year left on McDonagh's contract that means he will be around for the 2018-19 season, a season that should see an improvement.  Vinni Lettieri, Boo Nieves and Tony DeAngelo will be a year older. Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil are expected to be meaningful contributors and Marc Staal should be bought out.   With Rick Nash's contract off the books, the team can lock down their RFA's (Miller, Hayes, Skjei and Vesey).  The Rangers have Ty Ronning, a young forward in the WHL who has 42 goals in 59 games.  He could be ready to make the jump to the NHL at age 21.  His only downside is that he is one inch taller than Mats Zuccarello and he's ten pounds lighter.  At any rate, it's too early to wave the white flag. 

Another big reason to keep McDonagh is that a winning NHL team needs a stud defenseman.  The Penguins have Kris Letang, the Kings have Drew Doughty, the Blackhawks have Duncan Keith.  That's the Cup winners.  The runner ups include P.K. Subban in Nashville,  Britt Burns in San Jose and Victor Hedman in Tampa.   I just don't see Kevin Shattenkirk or Brady Skjei in that role and it is highly unlikely that any team would trade a young, top NHL defenseman for a McDonagh rental for a little over a year.   

Keep what you've got until you can get better.   All-Star defensemen are harder to come by than top forwards, it's just a fact.  And Ryan McDonagh is an All-Star.