We've been down this road before. In 2004, the Rangers did the same thing. They traded Leetch, Nedved, Kovalev, Malakhov, Rucinsky, DeVries, Simon, Barnaby & Markenen. For all of those deals and all of the drafts picks they acquired, they really came out of it with Blair Betts, Brandon Dubinky (sort of) and Marc Staal (sort of).
Brian Leetch, possibly the best USA born player to ever compete in the NHL was dealt to Toronto for Maxim Kondratiev, Jarko Immonen and two draft picks (Lori Korpikoski and Michael Sauer). Kondratiev and Immonen were busts, Michael Sauer had to retire due to concussions and Korpikoski was traded for Enver Lisin (who?).
Petr Nedved and goalie Jussi Markenen were exhanged for Dwight Helminen, Dane Byers and Steve Valiquette. At least the Rangers got a decent television analyst out of this deal.
Alexei Kovalev fetched Josef Balej and draft pick Bruce Graham, both busts.
Vladimir Malakhov went to the Flyers for Rick Kozak (who?) and a draft pick that was part of a trade to Atlanta for a higher pick that became Marc Staal.
Nothing came out of the other deals (though picks acquired for Matthew Barnaby were used in a deal for the pick that became Brandon Dubinsky).
The most significant deal came in January when the team acquired Jaromir Jagr for Anson Carter, but that was not part of the player purge and Jagr's great years as a Ranger came after the lockout of 2004-05.
At the time of the purge, the team was 23-31-12 and had won only five out of their last 23 games. They were destined to finish 25th out of 30 teams. With the sixth overall draft pick, they selected Al Montoya who is still in the NHL having played 162 games in nine seasons for six teams and never wearing a Ranger sweater. The Capitals and Penguins finished with about ten fewer points than the Rangers and drafted Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. In what was a weak draft, the Rangers passed on Drew Stafford, Alexander Radulov, Travis Zajac, Mike Green and David Krejci among others.
So, what's the point? The point is that unless the team gets young NHL talent or top ten draft picks, it will be a complete crapshoot. If the Rangers give up on this 2017-18 season, the chances of a "rebuild on the fly" that actually works is probably a 50-50 proposition (or even less).
When it comes to trading for young talent it is a roll of the dice. The Predators struck gold when they stole Filip Forsberg from Washington (for Martin Erat and Michael Latta). To a lesser degree, the Rangers did the same when they acquired Mika Zibanejad. The other option is to acquire a player who they think will become a star, but has not gotten there yet. Does that sound a lot like Tony DeAngelo? If the team trades Zuccarello or McDonagh they need to get proven young NHL talent, not a project. Nash or Grabner will get you a project.
When it comes to draft picks it is even worse. The biggest problem is that the teams who will be "buying" will only be able to offer late first round picks or late second round picks. There is little chance that the team will end up with a top pick that is guaranteed for NHL stardom. The one factor in the Rangers' favor is that the 2018 entry draft is considered on par with 2015 and 2016 drafts with the first round particularly solid. That certainly will affect the team's decision to keep or sell.
We took a look at the top young players in the NHL compiling a list of the top 50 players under the age of 25 this season, (I didn't include goalies). The list is a mix of lists compiled before the season by SBS Nation and "The Athletic." That's why no Nico Hischier or Matt Barzal on the list. So, what are the odds of a draft pick becoming a top NHL player? One thing is absolutely clear. If you want to be sure you are picking an NHL player with potential for stardom, it HAS to be a top ten pick.
Of the 18 centers in the list, 14 were top ten selections. Furthermore, only two centers were picked above 16th in the draft. Vincent Trocheck was selected #64 and took a longer road to the NHL, establishing himself as a top player in 2015-16. Brayden Point went #79 overall, but had been projected as a first rounder, but dropped due to concerns about his size.
Looking at wingers, there were more later picks on the list. Twenty wingers made the top 50 list with half picked in the top ten and 14 going in the first round. Late first rounders included Anthony Mantha (#20), David Pastrnak (#25) and Rickard Rakell (#30). Later round gems numbered six with the latest being Viktor Arvidsson of the Predators who was picked #112.
13 defensemen made the list and of the 13, eight were top ten selections in their drafts. Oscar Klefbom was a late first round selection at #19. Four defenseman on the list were late round selections including Shane Gostisbehere at #78, Colton Parayko at #86, Jacob Slavin at #120 and John Klingberg at #131.
So, what does it mean? First, if you are a top ten selection, it is pretty much assured that you will be an NHL player. From 2011-16, there were 60 top ten selections in the entry draft and 31 of them made the list of top NHLer's under 25.
Furthermore, only four players selected in the top ten since 2011 are not NHL regulars (or semi-regulars).
After the top ten picks, it becomes much more of a crapshoot. Even the first round is not a guarantee. First round picks after the top ten are not a sure thing with only seven of the 60 players chosen in the first round, but not in the top ten making the top 51 players list.
Rangers fans will be thrilled to know that the only top ten pick by the Rangers since 2005 was Dylan McIlrath at #9 in 2010 and he is one of five players picked in the first round since 2010 who are not regulars in the NHL
More depressing information for Ranger fans? In 2011, the Rangers took J.T. Miller 15th overall, passing on Oscar Klefbom, Rickard Rakell, Brandon Saad, Nikita Kucherov and Vincent Trocheck. Perhaps worst is that when they selected Steven Fogarty at 72nd overall, Johnny Gaudreau was still available. Fogarty is in his third year with the Wolfpack without much of a shot at the NHL.
In 2012, the Rangers picked Boo Nieves at #59, passing on Shayne Gostisbehere, Colton Parayko and Jacob Slavin. Ouch.
The bottom line is a purge only makes sense if you get quality in exchange. Trading Ryan McDonagh to Toronto makes sense if you get William Nylander or Morgan Rielly in return. Late first rounders or second round picks in exchange for Michael Grabner or Rick Nash? The team will very likely end up with a player of the caliber of Jimmy Vesey or Nick Holden who will be NHL ready in 3-4 years. Is it really worth giving up on this season if the team is three points out of a playoff berth?
Injuries can be a factor. The Winnipeg Jets are in first place in the Central Division with a nine point cushion over the last wild card team. They just learned that Jacob Trouba will miss 6-8 weeks with an ankle injury. Already down Mark Scheifele for another month, if the Jets start losing they may be ready to deal. Would it make sense to trade McDonagh, Nash and Desharnais to the Jets for the injured Trouba and rookie LW Kyle Connor?
If by February 26 the downward spiral has taken the Rangers out of contention for a wild card spot, it will be time to sell, but only if they are clearly not going to make the playoffs. History has proven that the return just isn't that great.
Here are the top 50 players in the NHL under the age of 25 and their draft history.
#1 Picks (the only #1 not on the list is Nail Yakupov. now with Colorado)
2011 - Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Oiler C
2013 - Nathan McKinnon - Avalanche C
2014 - Aaron Ekblad - Panthers D
2015 - Connor McDavid - Oilers C
2016 - Auston Matthews - Leafs C
#2 Picks (Injury ridden Columbus D-man Ryan Murray was #2 in 2012)
2011 - Gabriel Landeskog - Avalanche W
2013 - Alexander Barkov - Panthers C
2014 - Sam Reinhart - Sabres W
2015 - Jack Eichel - Sabres C
2016 - Patrik Laine - Jets W
#3 Picks
2011 - Jonathan Huberdeau - Panthers W
2012 - Alex Galchenyuk - Canadiens C
2013 - Jonathan Drouin - Canadiens W
2014 - Leon Draisaitl - Oilers C
#4 Picks
2013 - Seth Jones - Blue Jackets D
2015 - Mitch Marner - Leafs W
2016 - Jesse Puljujarvi - Oilers W
#5 Pick
2012 - Morgan Rielly - Leafs W
#6 Picks
2011 - Mika Zibanejad - Rangers C
2012 - Hampus Lindholm - Ducks D
2013 - Sean Monahan - Flames C
2016 - Matthew Tkachuk - Flames W
#7 Picks
2011 - Mark Scheifele - Jets C
2015 - Ivan Provorov - Flyers D
#8 Picks
2013 - Rasmus Ristolainen - Sabres D
2014 - William Nylander - Leafs C
2015 - Zach Werenski - Blue Jackets D
#9 Picks
2011 - Dougie Hamilton - Flames D
2012 - Jacob Trouba - Jets D
2013 - Bo Horvat - Canucks C
2014 - Nikolaj Ehlers - Jets W
#11 Pick
2012 - Filip Forsberg - Predators W
#14 Pick
2013 - Alexander Wennberg - Blue Jackets C
#15 Pick
2014 - Dylan Larkin - Red Wings C
#19 Pick
2011 - Oscar Klefbom - Oilers D
#20 Pick
2013 - Anthony Mantha - Red Wings W
#25 Pick
2014 - David Pastrnak - Bruins W
#30 Pick
2011 - Rickard Rakell - Ducks W
#35 Pick
2015 - Sebastian Aho - Hurricanes W
#43 Pick
2011 - Brandon Saad - Blackhawks W
#58 Pick
2011 - Nikita Kucherov - Lightning W
#64 Pick
2011 - Vincent Trocheck - Panthers C
#77 Pick
2013 - Jake Guentzel - Penguins W
#78 Pick
2012 - Shayne Gostisbehere - Flyers D
#79 Pick
2014 - Braden Point - Lightning C
#86 Pick
2012 - Colton Parayko - Blues D
#104 Pick
2011 - Johnny Gaudreau - Flames W
#112 Pick
2014 - Viktor Arvidsson - Predators @
#120 Pick
2012 - Jacob Slavin - Hurricanes D
#131 Pick
2010 - John Klingberg - Stars D
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