Thoughts on the Sell-off

So, the fire sale has begun.   Nick Holden is now a Boston Bruin, may he play as well for them as he did for the Rangers (not very well at times).  Jeff Gorton gets an "A" for that deal netting a 3rd round pick from Boston in this year's draft along with an AHL depth defenseman in Rob O'Gara.  O'Gara has size (same height as Holden, 6'4") and is more of a defensive defenseman.   The Long Island native (and a lifelong Islander fan), may see action versus Montreal on Thursday if Marc Staal is not available.  At any rate, Holden cost the Rangers a 4th round pick so the Blueshirts got a better return than he cost them.

With the trade deadline looming on Monday at noon, it is becoming more and more apparent that deals for Rick Nash, David Desharnais and Michael Grabner are inevitable.  The Ryan McDonagh talks have heated up and he provided the team with a list of ten teams he will NOT go to.   Other names bandied about have been Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes. The belief is that Gorton will entertain offers for anyone on the team and if blown away, will make a deal.  Right now, I'm sure his priority is to drive up the price for Nash and Grabner.   One good thing about the Holden deal is that by obtaining a third rounder for him, it sets the price for Nash and Grabner as a first round pick and more.

We've discussed the  value of draft picks with the better the pick dramatically raising the odds of success in the NHL.   That said, one has to really hope that any draft picks obtained by the Rangers be from teams that ultimately miss the playoffs.    Although the hottest rumors are Tampa (for McDonagh) and Nashville (for Nash), it's the cusp teams they should be dangling these players in front of.

Right now,  Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Vegas, Nashville and Winnipeg are a lock for a playoff spot.  While other teams (Washington, Pittsburgh) look like a playoff spot is assured, there is a slight chance they could miss.  So, here is the latest expanded Tankometer (teams currently in the playoffs in italics):

	Team	GP	Record	Points	ROW
1	Arizona	59	17-32-10	44	16
2	Buffalo	59	17-32-11	45	17
3	Ottawa	58	21-28-9	51	19
4	Montreal	59	22-29-8	52	20
5	Edmonton	59	24-31-4	52	22
6	Vancouver	60	23-30-7	53	23
7	Detroit	59	24-26-9	57	20
8	Florida	56	26-24-6	58	24
9	Chicago	60	25-27-8	58	25
10	Rangers	60	27-28-5	59	24
11	Carolina	60	27-23-10	64	24
12	Islanders	61	29-26-6	64	26
13	Columbus	60	30-25-5	65	24
14	Colorado	59	32-23-4	68	31
15	Calgary	60	30-21-9	69	28
16	New Jersey	60	31-21-8	70	27
17	Anaheim	61	30-20-11	71	26
18	Los Angeles	60	33-22-5	71	31
19	St.Louis	61	34-23-4	71	31
20	Minnesota	59	32-20-7	71	29
21	Philadelphia	60	31-19-10	72	30
22	San Jose	60	33-19-8	74	29
23	Pittsburgh	61	35-22-4	74	33
24	Washington	60	34-19-7	75	31

Now, we can assume that it is very likely that any team with an eight point cushion from the last wild card slot will be making the post season.  Those teams are Washington, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.   From there, break the teams into likely playoff teams and cusp teams.

The onlly likely playoff team is New Jersey, with a six point cushion.  All of the reast of the contenders are cusp teams and therefore the best trading partners for the Rangers.  If they miss the playoffs, they enter the lottery and have a chance at moving up to the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks.

Here are the cusp teams (in descending order points-wise):  San Jose, Minnesota, St. Louis, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Calgary, Colorado, Columbus,  Islanders and Carolina.

From the list, the best teams to deal with would be the Rangers' Metro Division rivals the Islanders, Carolina and Columbus.  As illogical as it seems to make a trade within the Metro Division, a Nash or Grabner deal would actually help the Rangers long-term (if they ultimately miss the post-season).  Arch-rivals would be giving up assets that would help them in the future for a short term rental.

The Deal for Martin St. Louis

The Rangers acquisition of Martin St. Louis can be seen as an example of a deal that strengthened a rival.  The end result for Tampa is still up in the air, but the potential was there.  Dissecting the trade can be instructive. The Rangers obtained St. Louis in return for first round picks in 2014 and 2015, a seventh round pick in 2015 as well as Ryan Callahan.  The Rangers got St. Louis and a second round pick in 2015.

The Lightning flipped that 2014 first round pick to the Islanders in exchange for two second round picks in that draft . They drafted Dominick Masin, a Czech defenseman and college defenseman Johnathan MacLeod.  Masin just made it to the AHL and MacLeod may not be offered a contract after his senior year at BU.  Both are not seen as top prospects.

The Lightning flipped the 2015 first rounder to the Islanders in exchange for a second and third round pick in the same draft.  They drafted center Mitchell Stephens who has 17 goals in his first AHL season and was just  named AHL Rookie of the Month for January.  In the third round they drafted winger Dennis Yan who is also in his first season in the AHL and is ranker #15 among Tampa prospects.  The 7th rounder they acquired was a Russian player who was not offered a contract.  Stephens has the most upside of any of the draft picks they got.

So, the Lighting went for quantity over quality and ultimately drafted five players .  Two appear to be AHL players and two (Stephens & Yan) may have a future in the NHL.  Ironically, the Islanders got both first rounders in separate deals with Tampa and did much better, drafting Josh Ho-Sang and Anthony Beauvillier with Ho-Sang still a viable prospect and Beauvillier a productive NHL forward this year.

So, did Tampa  "win" that deal?  They still have Ryan Callahan's leadership and a solid prospect in Mitchell Stephens and a raw prospect in Dennis Yan. Maybe it was the Islanders who "won'" the St. Louis deal, ending up with  Ho-Sang and Beauvillier.

As for the Rangers, they got a trip to the Finals and one additional season out of St . Louis.  The second round pick they acquired was flipped to Arizona in the Keith Yandle deal.  Arizona traded that pick to Calgary who drafted Oliver Kylington, a Swedish defenseman playing in the AHL, listed as the Flames #15 prospect.

And this year the Rangers are headed for disaster while Tampa and the Islanders are in the playoff picture with Ho-Sang, Yan and Stephens yet to have an impact as NHL players. 

Summing Up

As we have stated repeatedly, outside of the top ten picks, the NHL draft is a crapshoot.  It's essential for the Rangers to acquire high picks or at least picks that have a chance of making it into the top three.  If the team has three first rounders from non-playoff teams (their own and two by trade), they dramatically increase their odds of ending up in the top three.   A top three would be a stud player who could have an immediate impact on the future of the New York Rangers.

If the Rangers have to trade with a team definitely making the playoffs, the payoff has to be at the minimum, a prospect that will be playing in New York next season along with a draft pick (knowing that if its a first rounder it will be late).  Hopefully, Gorton will be able to work some magic as the deadline draws near.