With their backs to the wall, the Rangers came back from the All-Star break and laid an egg at MSG. The ONLY positive out of the game was that the Maple Leafs scored five goals against the Islanders versus "only" four versus the Blueshirts. The Rangers could muster little or no offense against the Leafs' backup goalie and Lundqvist was hung out to dry on all four goals. It was ugly. The team looked overmatched as if they didn't belong in the same arena.
The Rangers now sit three points out of a wild card slot and if the season ended today, they would have the 10th pick in the entry draft. They are only seven points from the fifth fewest in the league. With a weighted draft lottery pick lurking, the trade noise is getting louder.
With all of the chatter about trading Ryan McDonagh, it's time to take a look at what kind of return to expect if he is dealt. In other posts, we've noted that it is imperative that if he is traded, the team must get a top defenseman in return. Is it possible to find a stud defenseman if you don't have a top ten draft pick? I merged several lists of top NHL defensemen (nhl.com/Sportsnet/The Hockey News) and looked at where they were drafted to see if it is possible. Here are the 41 best D-men in the NHL right now:
First Round (22)
Aaron Ekblad, Florida - 1st
Victor Hedman, Tampa - 2nd
Drew Doughty, Los Angeles - 2nd
Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis - 4th
Seth Jones, Columbus- 4th
Morgan Rielly, Toronto - 5th
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Arizona- 6th
Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim - 6th
Ryan Suter, Minnesota - 7th
Matt Dumba, Minnesota - 7th
Ivan Provorov, Philadelphia - 7th
Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo - 8th
Zach Werenski, Columbus - 8th
Dougie Hamilton, Calgary - 9th
Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg - 9th
Ryan Ellis. Nashville - 11th
Cam Fowler, Anaheim - 12th
Ryan McDonagh, Rangers - 12th
Kevin Shattenkirk, Rangers - 14th
Erik Karlsson, Ottawa - 15th
Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton - 19th
Brent Burns, San Jose - 20th
Second Round (7)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose - 35th
Justin Faulk, Carolina - 37th
Roman Josi, Nashville - 38th
P.K. Subban, Nashville - 43rd
Jeff Petry, Montreal - 45th
Shea Weber, Montreal - 49th
Duncan Keith, Chicago - 54th
Later Rounds (10)
Kris Letang, Pittsburgh - 62nd
Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia - 78th
Colton Parayko, St. Louis - 82nd
Mattias Ekholm , Nashville - 102nd
T.J. Brodie, Calgary - 114th
Jacob Slavin, Carolina - 120th
John Klingberg, Dallas - 131st
Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota - 156th
Josh Manson, Anaheim - 160th
Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg 245th
Undrafted (2)
Mark Giordano, Calgary
Torey Krug, Boston
Hmmm. It's obvious that a team can find a gem in late rounds with almost half of the top defenseman drafted after the first round. What's also obvious is that the New York Rangers haven't been very good at doing that. The last defenseman drafted by New York after the first round to make the NHL was Michael Sauer (40th overall in 2005) and before that, Fedor Tyutin (40th overall in 2001). As a matter of fact, since 1990, the ONLY defenseman drafted after the first round to make an impact on the Rangers was Sergei Zubov, drafted 85th overall in 1990. To give credit, in 2005 the team did sign Dan Girardi, who was undrafted.
So, since the team's vaunted scouting system has produced no late round NHL defensemen in over a decade, is it possible to trade for a stud defenseman? Interestingly, 11 of the top 41 defenseman have changed teams with nine by trade.
Traded - Seth Jones from Nashville to Columbus for Ryan Johansen.
Traded - Jeff Petry - Edmonton to Montreal for two draft picks (2nd & 5th round)
Traded - Ryan McDonagh - Montreal to NYR for Scott Gomez and others
Traded -Dougie Hamilton - Boston to Calgary for two first round picks and one second round pick.
Traded - Kevin Shattenkirk - Colorado to St. Louis for Erik Johnson (4 former 1st rounders were in this deal)
Traded - Dustin Byfuglien - Chicago to Atlanta for 1st and 2nd round picks and others
Traded - Shea Weber - Nashville to Montreal for P.K. Subban
Traded - P.K. Subban - Montreal to Nashville for Shea Weber.
Traded - Brent Burns - Minnesota to San Jose with a second round pick for Charlie Coyle, a top prospects and a 1st round pick.
Free Agent - Ryan Suter - Nashville to Minnesota (FA)
Unsigned - Jared Spurgeon from Islanders to Minnesota
First, let's say that the Islanders showed their usual bad judgment by not even offering Spurgeon a contract.
The Jones, Shattenkirk,Weber and Subban deals were blockbuster trades with quality going both ways.
The McDonagh and Burns deals were one-sided.
The Petry, Hamilton and Byfuglien deals were for future assets (mostly draft picks).
In the future assets deals, the Canadiens have nothing to show for the Petry deal. The Bruins are waiting for their three picks to develop and have been castigated for passing on Matthew Barzal. The Blackhawks got little out of their trading of Byfuglien. In a bit of Ranger trivia, the Atlanta 1st rounder they acquired was used to pick the the one and only Kevin Hayes.
So, history shows that it is very difficult to "steal" a top defenseman. Trading for draft picks usually results in little or nothing. The best option for a positive return is to package additional assets in a trade for another top defenseman.
With defensemen at a premium in the NHL, which teams are the best candidates as trade partners?
Okay, rule out the teams with no stud defensemen to trade, teams out of playoff contention and teams in the Metropolitan Division. Also take out any teams with only one defenseman on the top 41 list.
That leaves six teams as best candidates (with the number of top D-men on the team in parentheses). Nashville (4), Anaheim (3), Calgary (3) , Minnesota (3) San Jose (2) and Winnipeg (2).
Nashville Predators: They sit in second place in the Central Division with a six point cushion to the last wild card team. They've been winning and "The Athletic" says they are a lock for the playoffs with a 9% chance of winning the Cup. They already made their blockbuster deal of the season when they acquired Kyle Turris and just signed Mike Fisher to return to the team. That said, would the addition of Ryan McDonagh as a top four defenseman be the final piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle and be worth Ryan Ellis or Mattias Ekholm? Throw in Rick Nash or Michael Grabner and does that seal the deal? Ryan Ellis and a #1 pick for McDonagh and Nash?
Anaheim: The Duck are out of the wild card picture today and "The Athletic" estimates a 54% chance of making the post-season. They already traded one of their young defensemen to the Devils for Adam Henrique, but still boast a deep D-corps. Could McDonagh upgrade their defense in a tough Pacific Division? Josh Manson and a #1 pick for McDonagh and Grabner?
San Jose: The Sharks are one loss from being out of the playoffs...and their odds of making the post-season are 61%. However, their top two defensemen (Burns and Vlasic) are 30 or older and signed to ridiculous longterm contracts for big bucks. No trade here.
Calgary: The Flames sit one point out of a playoff slot with a 59% shot at making the post season. They are very deep on D with Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie, Hamonic and Michael Stone. At times offensively challenged, the Flames could use a Rick Nash or Grabner to boost scoring and a Desharnais for depth at center. They have no first rounders to deal, so they'd have to give up quality. Dougie Hamilton, Mark Jankowski and Rasmus Andersson for McDonagh, Grabner, Desharnais and Holden?
Minnesota: The Wild occupy the last wild card slot in the West, but are a loss away from being out of the post-season. Their playoff odds are 53% and they've been riding a hot streak. They could use some goal scoring help...with only four players in double digits. Suter is 33 and going nowhere and Spurgeon is too valuable to deal, but could Matt Dumba be a piece of a deadline deal? Could a homegrown Ryan McDonagh guarantee a playoff spot? Matt Dumba, Kirill Kaprisov and a #1 pick for McDonagh and Nash?
Winnipeg: The Jets are in first place in the Central Division, riding a hot streak (7 wins in 10 games). "The Athletic" has them as a lock for the playoffs with a 7% chance of winning the Cup. They've suffered some serious injuries that may take their toll on the team. We've previously speculated that a Jacob Trouba deal (out for six weeks) could make sense. Trouba is an RFA with a negative history of salary negotiations with them team. Mark Schiefele is also out with an injury so the team could use some offensive help. Would they be willing to deal youth for playoff insurance and experience? Jacob Trouba, Kyle Connor and a 1st round pick for McDonagh, Nash and Desharnais?
It's fun to play armchair GM, but there's no way of knowing if these deals are even close to reality. How highly do NHL GM's value a Ryan McDonagh? The fact that he is under an attractive contract through next season is a definite plus. His leadership and skill are undisputed.
If traded will the Rangers end up with impact players who will be with the team for years? A lot of folks have likened a potential McDonagh deal with the Keith Yandle trade. Yandle was a top four defenseman for Phoenix who was also under contract for another season. The Yotes traded Yandle, Chris Summers and a 4th round pick for Anthony Duclair, John Moore and a first and second round pick. The Coyotes also picked up a chunk of Yandle's salary. What did Arizona get that they can point to today? Anthony Duclair hasn't panned out and was dealt to the Blackhawks. John Moore was not offered a contract and signed with the Devils. The second round pick they acquired was flipped for two more picks they are waiting to develop. The Coyotes flipped the first round pick in a deal with Detroit that got them Jacob Chycrun who had an outstanding rookie season last year, but has missed most of this season due to knee surgery.
The moral of the story is that there is no such thing as a sure thing in the NHL these days. It's really vital to try to minimize the odds of failing. Ryan McDonagh is a solid asset that should bring a strong return. If the team gives up on this season and tries to rebuild on the fly, they need to get real assets back. Those assets are out there. It's up to fate to get the stars to align so that the Rangers can get real value for their marketable players. A few more efforts like the Toronto game and the deals will begin sooner than you think.
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