Thoughts on the Sell-off

So, the fire sale has begun.   Nick Holden is now a Boston Bruin, may he play as well for them as he did for the Rangers (not very well at times).  Jeff Gorton gets an "A" for that deal netting a 3rd round pick from Boston in this year's draft along with an AHL depth defenseman in Rob O'Gara.  O'Gara has size (same height as Holden, 6'4") and is more of a defensive defenseman.   The Long Island native (and a lifelong Islander fan), may see action versus Montreal on Thursday if Marc Staal is not available.  At any rate, Holden cost the Rangers a 4th round pick so the Blueshirts got a better return than he cost them.

With the trade deadline looming on Monday at noon, it is becoming more and more apparent that deals for Rick Nash, David Desharnais and Michael Grabner are inevitable.  The Ryan McDonagh talks have heated up and he provided the team with a list of ten teams he will NOT go to.   Other names bandied about have been Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes. The belief is that Gorton will entertain offers for anyone on the team and if blown away, will make a deal.  Right now, I'm sure his priority is to drive up the price for Nash and Grabner.   One good thing about the Holden deal is that by obtaining a third rounder for him, it sets the price for Nash and Grabner as a first round pick and more.

We've discussed the  value of draft picks with the better the pick dramatically raising the odds of success in the NHL.   That said, one has to really hope that any draft picks obtained by the Rangers be from teams that ultimately miss the playoffs.    Although the hottest rumors are Tampa (for McDonagh) and Nashville (for Nash), it's the cusp teams they should be dangling these players in front of.

Right now,  Tampa, Boston, Toronto, Vegas, Nashville and Winnipeg are a lock for a playoff spot.  While other teams (Washington, Pittsburgh) look like a playoff spot is assured, there is a slight chance they could miss.  So, here is the latest expanded Tankometer (teams currently in the playoffs in italics):

	Team	GP	Record	Points	ROW
1	Arizona	59	17-32-10	44	16
2	Buffalo	59	17-32-11	45	17
3	Ottawa	58	21-28-9	51	19
4	Montreal	59	22-29-8	52	20
5	Edmonton	59	24-31-4	52	22
6	Vancouver	60	23-30-7	53	23
7	Detroit	59	24-26-9	57	20
8	Florida	56	26-24-6	58	24
9	Chicago	60	25-27-8	58	25
10	Rangers	60	27-28-5	59	24
11	Carolina	60	27-23-10	64	24
12	Islanders	61	29-26-6	64	26
13	Columbus	60	30-25-5	65	24
14	Colorado	59	32-23-4	68	31
15	Calgary	60	30-21-9	69	28
16	New Jersey	60	31-21-8	70	27
17	Anaheim	61	30-20-11	71	26
18	Los Angeles	60	33-22-5	71	31
19	St.Louis	61	34-23-4	71	31
20	Minnesota	59	32-20-7	71	29
21	Philadelphia	60	31-19-10	72	30
22	San Jose	60	33-19-8	74	29
23	Pittsburgh	61	35-22-4	74	33
24	Washington	60	34-19-7	75	31

Now, we can assume that it is very likely that any team with an eight point cushion from the last wild card slot will be making the post season.  Those teams are Washington, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.   From there, break the teams into likely playoff teams and cusp teams.

The onlly likely playoff team is New Jersey, with a six point cushion.  All of the reast of the contenders are cusp teams and therefore the best trading partners for the Rangers.  If they miss the playoffs, they enter the lottery and have a chance at moving up to the 1st, 2nd or 3rd picks.

Here are the cusp teams (in descending order points-wise):  San Jose, Minnesota, St. Louis, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Calgary, Colorado, Columbus,  Islanders and Carolina.

From the list, the best teams to deal with would be the Rangers' Metro Division rivals the Islanders, Carolina and Columbus.  As illogical as it seems to make a trade within the Metro Division, a Nash or Grabner deal would actually help the Rangers long-term (if they ultimately miss the post-season).  Arch-rivals would be giving up assets that would help them in the future for a short term rental.

The Deal for Martin St. Louis

The Rangers acquisition of Martin St. Louis can be seen as an example of a deal that strengthened a rival.  The end result for Tampa is still up in the air, but the potential was there.  Dissecting the trade can be instructive. The Rangers obtained St. Louis in return for first round picks in 2014 and 2015, a seventh round pick in 2015 as well as Ryan Callahan.  The Rangers got St. Louis and a second round pick in 2015.

The Lightning flipped that 2014 first round pick to the Islanders in exchange for two second round picks in that draft . They drafted Dominick Masin, a Czech defenseman and college defenseman Johnathan MacLeod.  Masin just made it to the AHL and MacLeod may not be offered a contract after his senior year at BU.  Both are not seen as top prospects.

The Lightning flipped the 2015 first rounder to the Islanders in exchange for a second and third round pick in the same draft.  They drafted center Mitchell Stephens who has 17 goals in his first AHL season and was just  named AHL Rookie of the Month for January.  In the third round they drafted winger Dennis Yan who is also in his first season in the AHL and is ranker #15 among Tampa prospects.  The 7th rounder they acquired was a Russian player who was not offered a contract.  Stephens has the most upside of any of the draft picks they got.

So, the Lighting went for quantity over quality and ultimately drafted five players .  Two appear to be AHL players and two (Stephens & Yan) may have a future in the NHL.  Ironically, the Islanders got both first rounders in separate deals with Tampa and did much better, drafting Josh Ho-Sang and Anthony Beauvillier with Ho-Sang still a viable prospect and Beauvillier a productive NHL forward this year.

So, did Tampa  "win" that deal?  They still have Ryan Callahan's leadership and a solid prospect in Mitchell Stephens and a raw prospect in Dennis Yan. Maybe it was the Islanders who "won'" the St. Louis deal, ending up with  Ho-Sang and Beauvillier.

As for the Rangers, they got a trip to the Finals and one additional season out of St . Louis.  The second round pick they acquired was flipped to Arizona in the Keith Yandle deal.  Arizona traded that pick to Calgary who drafted Oliver Kylington, a Swedish defenseman playing in the AHL, listed as the Flames #15 prospect.

And this year the Rangers are headed for disaster while Tampa and the Islanders are in the playoff picture with Ho-Sang, Yan and Stephens yet to have an impact as NHL players. 

Summing Up

As we have stated repeatedly, outside of the top ten picks, the NHL draft is a crapshoot.  It's essential for the Rangers to acquire high picks or at least picks that have a chance of making it into the top three.  If the team has three first rounders from non-playoff teams (their own and two by trade), they dramatically increase their odds of ending up in the top three.   A top three would be a stud player who could have an immediate impact on the future of the New York Rangers.

If the Rangers have to trade with a team definitely making the playoffs, the payoff has to be at the minimum, a prospect that will be playing in New York next season along with a draft pick (knowing that if its a first rounder it will be late).  Hopefully, Gorton will be able to work some magic as the deadline draws near.

Tanking...A Strategic Necessity

First, some news after the disaster in Nashville.  Filip Forsberg will be suspended for three games because of his high hit on Jimmy Vesey.  According to NHL.com the following grounds were being considered for supplemental discipline:  interference.  Yes, that's right...not elbowing, interference.  They could have called it interference with intent to kill.  What about a suspension and fine for the refs for missing the call?  Meanwhile, it appears that Alexei Emelin will get away with his high head shot on Marc Staal. No word on the extent of the injuries to Staal and Vesey, but the team recalled Vinni Lettieri for the game in Dallas.  At any rate, it'll cost Forsberg three games and almost $100k.  The Rangers could have used the five minute major.

With this Ranger season going up in flames and the injuries mounting, it looks like the Rangers are headed for the draft lottery.  They currently sit 9th worst, behind Arizona, Buffalo, Ottawa, Vancouver, Montreal, Edmonton, Detroit and Florida, but are only seven points from having the fourth worst record in the league.   You hate to say it, but Ranger fans need to be rooting for the teams between Ottawa and New York the rest of the season.  There is a website that tracks lottery pick odds and with the team in 9th place, the Blueshirts have a 5.4% shot at the #1 pick.  Fourth place and the odds double.   Check out tankathon.com:  http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

The Athletic has the Rangers finishing with 85 points, good for 8th worst in the league.   The way the draft lottery works is all 15 teams that miss the playoffs have  a shot at the top three picks, determined by a draw of ping pong balls with the higher weight to the teams with the worst records. If a team doesn't move up to 1-3, the remaining position is determined by points.

So, a Ranger fan REALLY wants the team to finish as close to the bottom as possible to get a top pick.  The only way for this sell-off to succeed is to tank and here's why.

The Chicago Blackhawks are closest to a dynasty the NHL has seen in recent memory, with three Stanley Cup championships in six years.  They are now on the downswing, betrayed by the salary cap that has forced them to give up carefully cultivated assets to make the cap.  With no salary cap, the Blackhawks would be a much better team today and that is on the NHL.

The Blackhawks had a very bad stretch of seasons, only making the playoffs once in ten tries from 1997 to 2008.   They rebounded from that stretch of ineptitude to win the 2010 Stanley Cup and with an intact core, go on to win the Cup in 2013 and 2015.   How did they do it?

They did it with with some savvy free agent signings, excellent late round drafting and above all, some top picks. It took a while, as they had top ten picks for four straight years (1998-2001) and made some really bad picks. Their top ten draft picks those years were Mark Bell, Steve McCarthy, Mikhail Yakubov and Tuomo Ruutu.  Only Ruutu had an NHL career.

Beginning in 2002 they started to do much better in the entry draft.  They took Duncan Keith in the second round  in 2002.  In 2003, Brent Seabrook was the 14th pick overall and they drafted Corey Crawford in the second round.  They also struck gold with Dustin Byfuglien in the 8th round.  In 2004, they drafted Troy Brouwer in the 7th round.  Those late round picks made up for bad first round selections in the same years.

They made decent trades.  In 2006, Patrick Sharp came from Philadelphia and in 2007  Kris Versteeg from Boston for little in return.  In 2008 Andrew Ladd came from Carolina in exchange for former #1 pick Tuomo Ruutu.

They filled holes in the roster with free agent signees Brian Campbell and  Antti Niemi (undrafted) in 2008 and Marian Hossa in 2009.

But undeniably, the two key acquisitions were  draft picks.  In 2006, with the third overall pick they took Jonathan Toews.  In 2007, the first year of the draft lottery, they moved from 5th to 1st pick overall and selected Patrick Kane. The Hawks were incredibly fortunate to get the first pick, but they also went after Kane who was ranked second after Kyle Turris by Central Scouting.

The 2009 team went to the Conference Finals and was pretty much the same team that won the Cup the next year.  They had a stellar forward corps made up of Toews, Kane, Hossa, Ladd, Brouwer, Versteeg and Sharp.   The defense was top notch with Keith, Byfuglien, Seabrook and Campbell.  Goaltending was deep with Corey Crawford and Antti Niemi.

The one undeniable fact is that it was the core four that made them the dynasty that won three Stanley Cups.   Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Duncan Keith were the four pieces and they wouldn't have had the success without them.

While Duncan Keith was a great second round pick and Marian Hossa was an excellent free agent signing, it was the #1 pick (Kane) and the #3 pick (Toews) that sealed the deal.

How does this apply to the New York Rangers?  They've always had a deep, solid corps of players, but it is the Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews that they lack.  They thought they were getting it in Marty St. Louis,  Marian Gaborik and Rick Nash, but those deals haven't paid off.  It's the same with the Pittsburgh Penguins who have ridden Sydney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Marc Andre Fleury to Nirvana and also to the Los Angeles Kings with Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty.

Add a Malkin, Kopitar or Toews to the Rangers of 2015 and what happens?  One can only dream. Let the tanking begin.

McDonagh Trade Possibilities

With their backs to the wall, the Rangers came back from the All-Star break and laid an egg at MSG.  The ONLY positive out of the game was that the Maple Leafs scored five goals against the Islanders versus "only" four versus the Blueshirts.  The Rangers could muster little or no offense against the Leafs' backup goalie and Lundqvist was hung out to dry on all four goals.  It was ugly.  The team looked overmatched as if they didn't belong in the same arena.

The Rangers now sit three points out of a wild card slot and if the season ended today, they would have the 10th pick in the entry draft.    They are only seven points from the fifth fewest in the league.  With a weighted draft lottery pick lurking, the trade noise is getting louder.

With all of the chatter about trading Ryan McDonagh, it's time to take a look at what kind of return to expect if he is dealt.  In other posts, we've noted that it is imperative that if he is traded, the team must get a top defenseman in return.   Is it possible to find a stud defenseman if you don't have a top ten draft pick?   I merged several lists of top NHL defensemen (nhl.com/Sportsnet/The Hockey News) and looked at where they were drafted to see if it is possible.  Here are the 41 best D-men in the NHL right now:

First Round (22)
Aaron Ekblad, Florida -   1st
Victor Hedman, Tampa -   2nd
Drew Doughty, Los Angeles -  2nd
Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis -  4th
Seth Jones, Columbus-  4th
Morgan Rielly, Toronto - 5th
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Arizona- 6th
Hampus Lindholm, Anaheim -   6th
Ryan Suter, Minnesota -  7th
Matt Dumba, Minnesota - 7th
Ivan Provorov, Philadelphia - 7th
Rasmus Ristolainen, Buffalo - 8th
Zach Werenski, Columbus -  8th
Dougie Hamilton, Calgary - 9th
Jacob Trouba, Winnipeg - 9th
Ryan Ellis. Nashville -  11th
Cam Fowler, Anaheim -   12th
Ryan McDonagh, Rangers -  12th
Kevin Shattenkirk, Rangers -  14th
Erik Karlsson, Ottawa -  15th
Oscar Klefbom, Edmonton - 19th
Brent Burns, San Jose -  20th

Second Round (7)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose -  35th
Justin Faulk, Carolina -  37th
Roman Josi, Nashville -  38th
P.K. Subban, Nashville -  43rd
Jeff Petry, Montreal -  45th
Shea Weber, Montreal -  49th
Duncan Keith, Chicago -  54th

Later Rounds (10)
Kris Letang, Pittsburgh - 62nd
Shayne Gostisbehere, Philadelphia - 78th
Colton Parayko, St. Louis -  82nd
Mattias Ekholm , Nashville - 102nd
T.J. Brodie, Calgary -  114th
Jacob Slavin, Carolina -  120th
John Klingberg, Dallas -  131st
Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota -  156th
Josh Manson, Anaheim -  160th
Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg  245th

Undrafted (2)
Mark Giordano, Calgary
Torey Krug, Boston

Hmmm.  It's obvious that a team can find a gem in late rounds with almost half of the top defenseman drafted after the first round.   What's also obvious is that the New York Rangers haven't been very good at doing that.  The last defenseman drafted by New York after the first round to make the NHL was Michael Sauer (40th overall in 2005) and before that, Fedor Tyutin (40th overall in 2001).  As a matter of fact, since 1990, the ONLY defenseman drafted after the first round to make an impact on the Rangers was Sergei Zubov, drafted 85th overall in 1990.  To give credit, in 2005 the team did sign Dan Girardi, who was undrafted.

So, since the team's vaunted scouting system has produced no late round NHL defensemen in over a decade, is it possible to trade for a stud defenseman?  Interestingly, 11 of the top 41 defenseman have changed teams with nine by trade.

Traded - Seth Jones from Nashville to Columbus for Ryan Johansen.
Traded - Jeff Petry -  Edmonton to Montreal for two draft picks (2nd & 5th round)
Traded - Ryan McDonagh -  Montreal to NYR for Scott Gomez and others
Traded -Dougie Hamilton - Boston to Calgary for two first round picks and one second round pick.
Traded - Kevin Shattenkirk -  Colorado to St. Louis for Erik Johnson (4 former 1st rounders were in this deal)
Traded - Dustin Byfuglien -  Chicago to Atlanta for 1st and 2nd round picks and others
Traded - Shea Weber -  Nashville to Montreal for P.K. Subban
Traded - P.K. Subban - Montreal to Nashville for Shea Weber.
Traded - Brent Burns - Minnesota to San Jose with a second round pick for Charlie Coyle, a top prospects and a 1st round pick.
Free Agent - Ryan Suter -  Nashville to Minnesota (FA)
Unsigned - Jared Spurgeon  from Islanders to Minnesota

First, let's say that the Islanders showed their usual bad judgment by not even offering Spurgeon a contract.

The  Jones, Shattenkirk,Weber and Subban deals were blockbuster trades with quality going both ways.
The McDonagh and Burns deals were one-sided.
The Petry, Hamilton and Byfuglien deals were for future assets (mostly draft picks).

In the future assets deals, the Canadiens have nothing to show for the Petry deal.   The Bruins are waiting for their three picks to develop and have been castigated for passing on Matthew Barzal.    The Blackhawks got little out of their trading of Byfuglien.  In a bit of Ranger trivia, the  Atlanta 1st rounder they acquired was used to pick the the one and only Kevin Hayes.

So, history shows that it is very difficult to "steal" a top defenseman.  Trading for draft picks usually results in little or nothing.  The best option for a positive return is to package additional assets in a trade for another top defenseman.

With defensemen at a premium in the NHL, which teams are the best candidates as trade partners?

Okay, rule out the teams with no stud defensemen to trade, teams out of playoff contention and teams in the Metropolitan Division.  Also take out any teams with only one defenseman on the top 41 list.

That leaves six teams as best candidates (with the number of top D-men on the team in parentheses).  Nashville (4), Anaheim (3), Calgary (3) , Minnesota (3) San Jose (2)  and Winnipeg (2).

Nashville Predators:  They sit in second place in the Central Division with a six point cushion to the last wild card team.  They've been winning and "The Athletic" says they are a lock for the playoffs with a 9% chance of winning the Cup.  They already made their blockbuster deal of the season when they acquired Kyle Turris and just signed Mike Fisher to return to the team.  That said, would the addition of Ryan McDonagh as a top four defenseman be the final piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle and be worth Ryan Ellis or Mattias Ekholm? Throw in Rick Nash or Michael Grabner and does that seal the deal?    Ryan Ellis and a #1 pick for McDonagh and Nash?

Anaheim:  The Duck are out of the wild card picture today and "The Athletic" estimates a 54% chance of making the post-season.  They already traded one of their young defensemen to the Devils for Adam Henrique,  but still boast a deep D-corps.  Could McDonagh upgrade their defense in a tough Pacific Division?   Josh Manson and a #1 pick for McDonagh and Grabner?

San Jose:  The Sharks are one loss from being out of the playoffs...and their odds of making the post-season are 61%.  However, their top two defensemen (Burns and Vlasic)  are 30 or older and signed to ridiculous longterm contracts for big bucks.  No trade here.

Calgary:  The Flames sit one point out of a playoff slot with a 59% shot at making the post season.  They are very deep on D with Giordano, Hamilton, Brodie,  Hamonic and Michael Stone. At times offensively challenged, the Flames could use a Rick Nash or Grabner to boost scoring and a Desharnais for depth at center.  They have no first rounders to deal, so they'd have to give up quality.  Dougie Hamilton, Mark Jankowski  and Rasmus Andersson for McDonagh, Grabner, Desharnais and Holden?

Minnesota:  The Wild occupy the last wild card slot in the West, but are a loss away from being out of the post-season.  Their playoff odds are 53% and they've been riding a hot streak.   They could use some goal scoring help...with only four players in double digits.  Suter is 33 and going nowhere and Spurgeon is too valuable to deal, but could Matt Dumba be a piece of a deadline deal?  Could a homegrown Ryan McDonagh guarantee a playoff spot?  Matt Dumba, Kirill Kaprisov and  a #1 pick for McDonagh and Nash?

Winnipeg:  The Jets are in first place in the Central Division, riding a hot streak (7 wins in 10 games). "The Athletic" has them as a lock for the playoffs with a 7% chance of winning the Cup. They've suffered some serious injuries that may take their toll on the team.  We've previously speculated that a Jacob Trouba deal (out for six weeks) could make sense.  Trouba is an RFA with a negative history of salary negotiations with them team.  Mark Schiefele is also out with an injury so the team could use some offensive help.  Would they be willing to deal youth for playoff insurance and experience?  Jacob Trouba, Kyle Connor and a 1st round pick for McDonagh, Nash and Desharnais?

It's fun to play armchair GM, but there's no way of knowing if these deals are even close to reality.  How highly do NHL GM's value a Ryan McDonagh?  The fact that he is under an attractive contract through next season is a definite plus.  His leadership and skill are undisputed.

If traded will the Rangers end up with impact players who will be with the team for years?  A lot of folks have likened a potential McDonagh deal with the Keith Yandle trade.  Yandle was a top four defenseman for Phoenix who  was also under contract for another season.  The Yotes traded Yandle, Chris Summers and a 4th round pick for Anthony Duclair, John Moore and a first and second round pick.  The Coyotes also picked up a chunk of Yandle's salary.   What did Arizona get that they can point to today?   Anthony Duclair hasn't panned out and was dealt to the Blackhawks.  John Moore was not offered a contract and signed with the Devils. The second round pick they acquired was flipped for two more picks they are waiting to develop. The Coyotes flipped the first round pick in a deal with Detroit that got them Jacob Chycrun who had an outstanding rookie season last year, but has missed most of this season due to knee surgery.

The moral of the story is that there is no such thing as a sure thing in the NHL these days.  It's really vital to try to minimize the odds of failing.  Ryan McDonagh is a solid asset that should bring a strong return.  If the team gives up on this season and tries to rebuild on the fly, they need to get real assets back.  Those assets are out there. It's up to fate to get the stars to align so that the Rangers can get real value for their marketable players. A few more efforts like the Toronto game and the deals will begin sooner than you think.