Niiiiccceee.....
The Rangers exceeded all expectation in the ten game segment that ended with a highly entertaining shootout win over Toronto. The Rangers went 8-1-0-1....for 17 points out of 20. In my last post I predicted anywhere from 10 to 15 points as the Rangers were mired in a stretch of frustrating inconsistency. Wow....what a turnabout. They went from a ten game stretch of playing .500 hockey (10 points in 10 games) to their most successful ten game sequence of the season.
How did they do it? They did it by beating the teams that they should beat and by beating teams that are "better" than the Rangers. They beat elite teams (Washington/Anaheim/Columbus) and snared the loser point in a shootout with Montreal. The only regulation loss was to the Islanders who are riding "new coachitis" to their best play this season. While they continued their outstanding play on the road (3-1), most encouraging was their turnaround at home (5-0-1). The defense was magnificent as the Rangers allowed only 21 goals (including one empty netter). A little scary is that they scored only 29 goals in that period (including two empty net goals). While a +7 differential is good, averaging 2.7 goals per game is a slightly troublesome number. Then again, in the previous ten games they averaged a much better 3.5 GPG and were only .500 (they allowed 34 goals).
Clearly, the Rangers changed their defensive system and are allowing Henrik Lundqvist to see the puck. The defense made the alterations they needed to and they are back to the Rangers of years past...tight on defense with timely scoring.
I believe that King Henrik has silenced the doubters with his play over the last ten games. As Brandon Cohen of bluelinestation.com pointed out...the King's save percentage outside of that awful stretch in December-January is .927 in 38 games. That would put him in a tie for 3rd place. While his GAA is an unkingly 2.58, if you take out just four games where he was shellacked (Minnesota/Montreal/Dallas/Columbus), his GAA drops to 2.25, good for 6th place overall. At any rate, the King is back....long live the King.
Steve Valiquette of MSG Network made an excellent point after the Toronto game. Since Lundqvist is a legend in Sweden, when he is in net against another Swedish goaltender (usually younger), they play lights out. Beating Lundqvist is front page news back home. Look at these games:
February 23 vs. Toronto: Frederik Andersen season GAA 2.76. He allows one goal on 38 shots.
February 2 vs Buffalo: Robin Lehner season GAA 2.54. He allows two goals on 44 shots.
January 13 vs Toronto: Andersen allows two goals on 36 shots.
January 3 vs Buffalo: Anders Nilsson season GAA 2.67, He allows one goal on 25 shots.
As for Lundqvist's inconsistency this season, he was pulled in three games in December and January, allowing 14 goals. Last season, in December, he was pulled from three games, allowing 14 goals. The previous season was the Cam Talbot season...but in 2013-14 he was pulled twice in November/December, allowing 7 goals. There is definitely a pattern here...a period during the season when Henrik's performance drops, usually mid-season. The good news, it has NEVER happened in April or May.
Finally, is it a coincidence that the Rangers have gone 8-2-1 since giving coach Alain Vigneault a contract extension?
By the Numbers
Let's start by looking at where the Rangers stand compared to the rest of the league:
1st Place: Shorthanded goals for (8)
Fewest road PP goals allowed (11)
Fewest times shorthanded on the road (76)
Third period goals (82)
Road wins (20)
Road winning percentage (.714)
2nd Place: Tied for second in Wins with 39.
Tied for second in ROW with 36.
Fewest average penalty minutes per game (6.55)
Empty net goals (12)
Road points (40)
3rd Place: Goals scored with 197
4th Place: Goals per game (3.28)
Second period goals (67)
5th Place: Winning percentage of .667
Fewest times shorthanded (161)4
6th Place: Even strength goals scored (130)
7th Place: Fewest goals allowed (154)
Blocked Shots (944)
8th Place: Fewest PP goals allowed (29)
10th Place: Goals against per game 2.57
29.7 average shots against per game
13th Place: 82% Penalty Kill percentage
Now the not so good standings:
15th Place: 19.2% Power Play percentage
27th Place: Face-Off Winning percentage is only 48%
Individual Efforts
It's a tribute to the balanced scoring on this team that there are no offensive standouts. The only players in the top 25 in the NHL in any major categories are Michael Grabner (7th place with 26 goals), J.T. Miller (1st place with 3 shorthanded goals and 5th place with 6 game winning goals),
The entire Miller/Hayes/Grabner line resides in the leagues' top 18 in plus/minus.
There are some distinguished efforts on defense, led by Ryan McDonagh's 31 assists, good for 7th place among defensemen. Brady Skjei is not far behind in 16th place with 26 assists . Dan Girardi is fifth in the league in blocked shots with 147. McDonagh is in tenth place with 124 blocked shots.
As for the rookies, Vesey and Buchnevich have cooled off considerably while Brady Skjei remains an assists machine. Vesey has regained some jump after being moved up to the Stepan line with Rick Nash.
As for the rest of the team, there are positives and negative. Mika Zebanejad, Pavel Buchnevich and Derek Stepan are in goal scoring droughts. It appears that Vigneault is giving Brandon Pirri a chance to revive the power play, if he fails he won't see much ice time the rest of the season (barring injury) or is candidate for a trade. While Dan Girardi has appeared to revived his game, Kevin Klein continues to struggle generating even more "play Adam Clendening" articles in the blogsphere.
Looking Ahead
The next ten games are certainly not any easier. All ten games are against teams vying for playoff positioning (who isn't in the NHL these days?). They play ten games in 16 days with three sets of back to back games. There are six road games and four at home. After a "soft" game vs. New Jersey the Rangers play Columbus and Washington followed by Boston and Montreal, all tough matches. The last five games are definitely easier as they face Tampa twice, Florida, Carolina and Detroit. By the time the team gets to those five games Tampa, Carolina and Detroit may all be out of the playoff picture. And don't forget, the trade deadline is three games into this stretch. It's very possible that by Wednesday, those three teams may have given up on this season and traded away assets.
At any rate, by the end of the next ten game sequence, we should have a pretty good idea of where the Rangers will finish. It's also possible that the Atlantic Division playoff pciture will be clearer as well. As of this writing, there are five teams (Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Toronto, Florida) within six points of each other vying for first place and a potential match up with the Blueshirts provided the Rangers don't do anything really silly and finish 2nd or 3rd.
There is no reason to expect the Rangers to suffer a drop in quality of play over the next ten games, so a reasonable projection should be 12 with a real shot at 14 points. If they can get 14 points, they will be at 94 points with 12 games left. They would be assured of a playoff spot (they are pretty much a lock right now).
This weekend marks the first set of back to back games since January 22-23. The schedule is pretty intense from here to the playoffs. After the next ten games, they play their final 12 games in the last 16 days of the regular season. With a good push in the next few weeks, the Rangers could spend the ten games of the season tuning up for the playoffs.
The trade deadline is 3pm, March 1, less than five days away. Calgary and Pittsburgh have made deals to shore up their defense. The question is whether Jeff Gorton should pull the trigger on a major deal or just tweak what is already a pretty solid roster. I'll have another post before Wednesday, looking back at prior deadline transactions and reporting on some of the speculation.
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