So, with that scintillating loss to Columbus at MSG on Tuesday night, the Rangers concluded their fifth sequence of ten games. To put it bluntly, it wasn't pretty. A month ago the prediction was 12 points with "ten a distinct possibility." They finished 5-5 with ten points. It was the worst ten game sequence of the season (by only two points) and shows a definite downward trend. Here are their totals for their ten game sequences:
1-10: 14 points
11-20: 15 points
21-30: 12 points
31-40: 12 points
41-50: 10 points
A really disturbing trend is their inability to win at home. They lost four of five games at home, offset by winning four of five on the road. The Rangers have now lost more games at the Garden (11) than they did all last season (10). They stand a chance of losing 17 at home, the same number that they lost in 2014, the most in any post-lockout season.
This was a pretty disheartening stretch of games. It started with a decisive 5-2 win in Philadelphia and then with a totally unexpected victory on the road in Columbus over a back up goaltender who was very bad. Returning home, they didn't show up for a 4-2 loss to Toronto and then imploded on the road in Montreal, blowing a lead by allowing three goals in the third period in just over a minute. The insane 7-6 loss to Dallas followed. As in the game against Columbus the Rangers fell behind early by a LOT of goals and made it exciting in the third period. Ugly. Just when hordes of Ranger fans were about to commit mass suicide, they won three in a row first with a convincing road win in Toronto, then a nationally televised snorer 1-0 in Detroit and then beat Los Angeles in a game that they were totally outplayed. The best news was the revival of Henrik Lundqvist's game. Even the 2-0 loss to Philadelphia at the Garden should have been a victory as the Rangers outplayed the Flyers, Heading out of the All-Star break into the Columbus game I don't think anyone knew which Ranger team would show up. We got the one that fell behind 6-0 with shoddy goaltending from BOTH Ranger goalies. Ugly again.
In the ten games, the Rangers allowed 35 goals while scoring 29. In the five losses they allowed almost five goals per game (24) and scored only 16.
In hindsight, the Rangers were lucky to get ten points out of these ten games as they easily could have lost to Los Angeles and Columbus.
Healthwise, the Rangers are in decent shape. Kevin Hayes should be back soon and the rest of the team is pretty much 100%. That means bench time for Brandon Pirri, Oscar Lindberg and Adam Clendening.
Looking at the numbers, the Rangers are sliding towards the bottom of the top third in the league. Their winning percentage of .630 is seventh best in the league, but their point total (63) is tenth best, closer to the ranks of the likes of Ottawa, Nashville, Los Angeles and Philadelphia than to the elite of the league. They still are one of the top offensive teams in the league, second in the league with an average of 3.38 goals per game with a goal differential (+36) that is fourth best in the NHL. Despite the defensive issues, their are tenth best in the league in Goals Allowed (135), averaging 2.68 goals per game (13th best).
Special teams are not doing well. The Rangers Power Play is 14th best at 20.5%. The expected improvement with the return of Zibanejad and Buchnevich has not come, hopefully as they play more it will. The penalty kill has also been slipping as the team is 16th best at 82.2%.
Finally, the team faceoff percentage of 47.7% is four from the bottom of the entire NHL.
As far as individual achievements go, future Las Vegas Golden Knight Michael Grabner is still among the league leaders in goals (22), but all other Rangers have slipped, again a sign of the team's depth, but also illustrating the lack of singular players who can make a difference (did anyone say Rick Nash????).
The dynamic penalty killing duo of Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller are stellar with Miller leading the NHL in shorthanded goals (3) and Hayes leading in shorthanded points (5).
For the first time in years, Henrik Lundqvist is nowhere when it comes to league leading numbers (except in wins). His save percentage is only .905. Even the human sieve, Curtis McElhinney (he was the Columbus goalie who was waived) has a save percentage of .922. Just when you think Hank is out of the woods and the "good" Henrik is in goal, he lets in a softie.
LOOKING AHEAD
Okay, enough of the negativity. The Rangers are still an offensive powerhouse and they boast one of the league's best netminders who traditionally has a bad stretch at some point in the season. Their defense may not be the best in the league, but it is surely not among the worst.
The schedule is in the Rangers favor. If you consider teams with over 60 points as the "elite" teams, the Blueshirts have only 13 out of the last 32 games vs. the elite with 19 of 32 against inferior teams. Of those 13, eight are at home (normally a good thing). While only seven of 19 games against inferior teams are at home, this season that has to be considered a positive.
THE NEXT TEN GAMES
The next ten games have to be seen as key to this season. With six of the ten games at home, the Blueshirts need to end this trend of home losses. They have tough games against Anaheim, Columbus, Washington and Montreal. The rest of the games are all win-able vs. Buffalo, Calgary, Nashville, the Islanders, Toronto and New Jersey. The team needs to win the games they should win and be competitive with the elite teams. After tonight's game in Buffalo, they have four straight home games. The schedule is very reasonable with ten games in 23 days and no back to back games.
Predicting how they will end up is almost impossible. The Rangers of early this season would finish this stretch with 15 points. The schizoid Ranger team we have been watching will be lucky to finish with ten. The team NEEDS 12 points to stay ahead of the pack and get closer to locking up that first wild card slot. If they can maintain a 12 out of 20 point pace for the rest of the season they will end up with 101 points. If so, the playoffs are guaranteed. Here's what the top wildcard contenders would need to finish with 101 points.
Toronto 46 out of 68 points
Florida 47 out of 62 points
Islanders 48 out of 68 points
Carolina 50 out of 66 points
Devils 51 out of 62 points
Tampa 51 out of 62 points
The Rangers need 38 out of 64 possible points to end the season with 101 points.
So Ranger fans shouldn't be jumping off any bridges. Yet.
SOME NOTES FOR TONIGHT
* The game is at 730pm and will be on NBCSN. The game will also be on MSG.
* Magnus Hellberg will be the backup in goal tonight as Antti Raanta is about to become a father.
* The Rangers are 0-2 against Buffalo this season. In their first game in December they blew a third period lead in Buffalo and Jack Eichel singlehandedly beat them 4-3. Then the Sabres embarrassed the Rangers 4-1 at MSG in the first game of 2017. The Sabres are 5-5 in their last ten games. They are coming off a 6-2 spanking in Montreal on Tuesday.
* The Rangers are having trouble with the Atlantic Division, playing .500 hockey (13 of 26 points). They are much better against the Central (14 of 22) and the Metropolitan (20 of 34). They have obliterated the Pacific Division (14 of 18).
* The last time the Rangers lost two games in a season to Buffalo was 2011. The last time they lost three games in a season to Buffalo was 2010. Since the 2011-12 season, the Rangers have won 13 out of 16 games against Buffalo.
* You will be happy to know that Rick Carpiniello, hockey columnist who has been out of work for a while, just landed at a gig at MSG Network's website. He will write about the Rangers.
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