Michael Grabner....Amazing

The good news is that the NHL app works in Japan!  I was able to watch the Ottawa game on delay in HD...a good game for the Blueshirts.  A shutout for the King and only nineteen shots by the Senators.  Pretty solid defensive effort.  I have to weigh in on the major penalty to Brendan Smith...totally bogus.  It was an open ice hit that resulted in Mark Borowiecki falling into the boards headfirst.  One could argue that Smith shoved him in the direction of the boards when they collided, but the play was not near the boards.  It was a marginal interference call at the least.  If you want to be sickened, take a look at the hit from Dion Phaneuf (now a Senator) that ended Michael Sauer's career:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc3ij0TSqAc

What's especially revolting is the call from the Maple Leaf announcers.  They are positively gleeful over the unpenalized hit and you see Phaneuf's father high fiving other player dads.  In the current NHL, Phaneuf would be suspended for ten games for that hit.

The point is that Brendan Smith's hit was nothing like that.  Unfortunately, Borowiecki sustained a concussion and will be out for a while.  Hopefully it is not going to have longterm ramifications.  I assume that Smith will have a hearing with the NHL.  It will be folly if they suspend him.

Now to Grabs.... 

Michael Grabner scored his ninth goal to take the team lead (until Zibanejad's empty netter).  It was his eighth goal in eleven games.  Okay, here is the amazing statistic. 

All of Michael Grabner's 11 points this season have been at even strength.  He has yet to get a point on the power play for a simple reason, he never plays the power play.  In 21 games this season he has gotten 45 seconds on the PP.  That makes his scoring stats pretty special, but wait. 

In 2016-17, all of Michael Grabner's 40 points were at even strength or shorthanded.  In 76 games he played all of 6:03 on the power play.   No one else in the NHL even came  close.  Andrew Cogliano was second with 35 points (16-19-35) without a PP point.  Jason Chimera was second in goals with with 20 (20-13-33). 

So, in two seasons, Michael Grabner has played in 97 games, gotten 6:48 playing time on the power play and has 36 goals, 15 assists and 51 points.   The next highest total belongs to Jean-Gabriel Pageau of the Senators who in two seasons has 14 goals and 30 assists for 44 points. 

To put this in perspective, 888 players played at least one game in the NHL last season.  454 of them had at least one point on the power play.  434 players had no points...and Grabner led them all. 

All Ranger fans should be thankful that they have the opportunity to watch someone like Grabner.  It's the last year of his contract and you wonder how much the Austrian speedster will be able to get on the open market. At 31 next season, he will be on the older side, but he keeps himself in great shape and will definitely want more than the $1.65 million he is making now. 

So, it makes you wonder what would happen if he DID play the power play.....just once in a while. 

And now you know what I do when I wake up at 4am in Japan. 

A Turnaround (The Second Ten Games)

So, we've established that the Rangers' bad start could have easily been a good start.  No puck luck, ice cold scoring, shakey goaltending...all factors that contributed.  All factors that have been resolved resulting in a return to normalcy.

We hedged our bets looking ahead at this ten game sequence, predicting as many as 14 points and a likely total of eight.  The team came through with 14 points, highlighted by that six game winning streak.  At any rate, the Rangers are back in the playoff hunt and there are some things to be enthusiastic about.

The Results

In my last post we went over the first 17 results, game by game, so no point in recapping the first seven games of this sequence.  In the last three, it was classic New York Ranger hockey as they beat Edmonton at Madison Square Garden and lost on the road to Chicago and Columbus.  In the Edmonton game they fell behind 2-1 in the second period and came back to win.  In Chicago they were cruising through two periods when a fluky goal tied the score and then the defense fell apart and Artem Anisimov bagged a hat trick. Even then, they Rangers were a toe save away from tying the score late in the third period.  The effort in Columbus was not as good as an even first period led to two periods of domination by the Blue Jackets.  In the last two road losses the Rangers were definitely stymied by outstanding goaltending. Lundqvist had a rough time in Chicago, but has been mostly excellent, especially against Columbus.

Let's just say that by winning  seven out of ten games, the Rangers were never dominant, but did enough to win.  The positives are numerous.  When the team needed the power play to come through, it mostly did.  When the PP was frustrated  (only one short man advantage vs. Boston) the 5x5 team came through.  Probably the most encouraging effort was the overtime win on the road vs. Tampa.  The Lightning are running over the entire league, only losing two out of their first 19 games.  They just demolished Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim by a combined score of 12-4.  They have only lost one regulation game at home and on the road.  Their only overtime loss at home came at the hands of the Blueshirts.

But it wasn't just Tampa.  The Rangers also beat Boston, Columbus and Edmonton, teams considered among the better teams in the NHL.  The bottom line is the team has lost four games in regulation in the last 14.  Not bad.

However, two road losses and the Rangers moved from a team in a playoff spot to a team on the outside looking in.  They can ill afford to lose games that they could win. Only seven points separate the three teams (NJ, Columbus, Pittsburgh) in first place with 25 points and the last place Carolina Hurricanes (18 points, but three games in hand).   It is going to be a dogfight for the playoffs for every team in the East with the possible exception of Tampa.

Stats Pack

Some positive statistics. The Rangers are 6th in the NHL in goals scored (63) and 11th in goals per game (3.15).  Their power play ranks 5th in the league (23.6%). Their faceoff winning percentage is north of 50% for the first time in years. Surprisingly, they are 12th in the league in total hits (423). I guess they don't miss Tanner Glass. The team shooting percentage is 9.7% which is higher than the league average.

On the average side, the penalty kill is 16th at 80.6%. 

On the negative side, they are 27th in goals allowed (66) and 25th in goals allowed per game (3.30).  That's easily explained when you realize that the Rangers are the WORST in the NHL in giveaways with 299.  That's 15 giveaways per game. How bad is that?  The St. Louis Blues, best in the league,  average five giveaways per game.  Even the lowly Arizona Coyotes average only nine giveaways per game.  If you think the Blueshirts are resilient, they may be, but  the team has only won two out of ten games in regulation when the opposition scores first. They fall behind early and make the games competitive, but are not winning those games.

The Next Ten Games

The Rangers play seven of the next ten at MSG.  It's really time to make some hay at home.  If they don't they will have a  very tough time with a lot of road games the rest of the season. It's scary...in the first thirty games they play TWENTY at home.  And so far, their record so far is a decidedly mediocre 7-4-2.   Think about it...60% of the remaining games are on the road after they finish the third ten game sequence.  Ouch.

The home games are Ottawa, Detroit, Vancouver, Florida, Carolina, New Jersey and Dallas.  The road games are in Carolina, Pittsburgh and Washington.  Ordinarily a number of these games could be called "easy."  Not this season.  Eight of those ten teams have winning records and one is at .500, just like New York.

Okay, in this season that is impossible to predict, let's say that the Rangers will continue to be competitive and will win their share of the "win-able" games.   Home ice will help. Fourteen out of twenty points will be a successful sequence and is do-able.  It's more likely they will end up with ten or twelve.  They NEED to get 14 points or more.

Personal Note

I'm off to Japan for eight days.  I'll be at the mercy of wifi and a Slingbox, but I am hopeful I will be able to see all four games they play while I am gone. In the meantime, Happy Thanksgiving to all and let's give thanks for that six game winning streak that has sort of salvaged this season.

Never Easy

Well, Well, Well....

Here we are on a Thursday morning, fresh off a win against the Big, Bad Bruins on national television.  Lo and behold, the New York Rangers are in a playoff spot...eleven days after Glen Sather's trip to watch the Canadiens play when trade winds were blowing at hurricane force.  Since then, the team has won five in a row and vaulted into contention as one of the better teams in the NHL.  

Here are some numbers.  The Rangers are two points out of first place in the Metropolitan Division.  Nine teams in the Eastern Conference have fewer points than the Blueshirts, only five have more. They are in 7th place in the NHL with 8 ROW's.  They are in 10th place overall in goals per game (3.29)  With an efficiency rating of 23.8% they are 5th in the league on the power play. They have gotten to 11th place overall on the penalty kill (82.5%).  At 51.2% they are in 11th place in face off winning percentage. Mika Zibanejad is in the top ten in scoring in the NHL. Kevin Shattenkirk leads all defensemen in scoring.   Shattenkirk has more points in his last five games (8) than Norris Trophy winner Brett Burns has this entire season (7).    In this winning streak, the Rangers have beaten three teams with better records including Tampa on the road.   Yup, the Rangers suck.

But Do They?

The answer is that they were never that bad, but they were facing an unusual run of bad luck, coincidental scoring slumps and an out of alignment defense.  The bottom line is the Rangers have been living on the edge all season and in the last five games, everything that went wrong in the beginning of the season, has gone right.

Let's look game by game:

Game 1:  4-2 loss (empty net goal).  This was a loss to Colorado that could easily have been a win.   They poured 39 shots on Semyon Varlamov who stood on his head.  This was a game that could have gone either way.  

Game 2: 8-5 loss.  A horrific first period in Toronto, but the first time the Rangers showed their resiliency as they came back to tie the score. The team ran out of gas in the third period.  This was a loss all the way, but the comeback was a good sign. 

Game 3: 2-0 win.  A shutout for Lundqvist, vs. the struggling Canadiens.  The Rangers were helped by two disallowed goals in the first period.  Not a dominant win, by any means. 

Game 4:  3-1 loss (empty net goal)  Another one goal loss that could easily have been win vs. St. Louis. The Rangers allowed a goal fifteen seconds into the first period, but outshot one of the best team sin the league.  

Game 5: 3-1 loss (empty net goal).  A road loss to Columbus that could have gone either way.  They were let down by the power play 0-4, but for a timely goal, they win this game. 

Game 6:  3-2 loss.  The Rangers outshot the Devils 14-3 in the first period, but couldn't score, ultimately losing.  Another game that could have gone a different way.

Game 7:  5-4 loss in OT.   The Rangers should have won this game versus Pittsburgh as Kevin Shattenkirk touched a puck that could have been whistled down and Sydney Crosby scored a ridiculous goal from behind the goal line to tie in the last minute.  

Game 8:  4-3 loss in Shootout.  The Rangers came back with two third period goals to tie the Islanders, but lost in the shootout. Another game allowing an early goal, this could have been a two point game. 

Game 9:  4-2 win  (empty net goal).  This game vs Nashville at the Garden could have gone the other way as the Rangers only mustered 15 shots on goal. The King won this game for New York. 

Game 10:  4-1 loss.  This was a stinker vs. San Jose. Again, a dominant first period was undermined by a goal by the Sharks in the first two minutes.  They broke up the shutout with a Zibanejad goal in the third period.   An early goal might have changed the outcome. 

Game 11:  5-2 win (empty net goal).  The Rangers blew out the Arizona Coyotes.  Never in doubt. 

Game 12: 5-4 loss.  This was the game in Montreal that potentially turned the season around.  The Rangers were manhandled by the Canadiens, falling behind 3-0 after one period.  They eventually came back from a 4-2 deficit to tie the score, only to lose on a Danault goal in the third period.  An unimpressive performance by Ondrej Pavlec, bettered by a slightly less unimpressive performance by Carey Price. All of the players said that a team meeting after that embarrassing first period was a turning point. 

Game 13:  6-4 win (empty net goal).  The Rangers fell behind Vegas 4-2, only to rally for four straigh goals for the win.  Great comeback, but the Garden crowd was suicidal after two periods.  The rally was against the Golden Knights 4th string goaltender.  A fortunate win.

Game 14:  2-1 win in OT.  Great win vs. Tampa on the road, this was helped by another disallowed goal in the third period by the Lightning.  The hockey gods have begun to smile on the Rangers this season.  Could have gone either way.

Game 15:  5-4 win in OT.  The Rangers blew a 4-3 lead in the last two minutes as Florida's Vincent Trocheck scored a bad goal off Lundqvist.  Overshadowed by the win in overtime, they almost blew this one.

Game 16:  5-3 win (empty net goal).  Another stirring comeback as the Rangers scored three power play goals against Columbus in less than seven minutes in the third period.  Down 4-2 with ten minutes left in the game, it looked grim. A lack of discipline by the Blue Jackets doomed them.

Game 17:  4-2 win (empty net goal).  Another ulcer game as the Bruins tie the score 21 seconds after the Rangers take a 1-0 lead.  The dreaded two goal lead dissolved in the third period and it became a nail biter as Hank stood on his head to preserve the win.

So.....

What's the point?  The Rangers were only completely out of two games in the first 17.  Not counting empty net goals, 13 games were  really one goal games.   If the team wins four out of the seven they eventually lost their record would be 12-5-0 and they would be challenging for the President's Trophy.  That said, seven out of their eight wins could have gone the other way.  If they lost half of those games, they would be 4-11-2 and they would have a new coach and new players.  

Before we start planning our schedules around the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we have to accept that in today's NHL this will be a dogfight, probably until the last night of the season.  The Rangers are good, but need to be firing on all cylinders and also need a healthy dose of puck luck.   The good news is that they are a good team and will be in the fight for the playoffs throughout this season. As previously noted, the margin is razor thin. 

Some Notes:

It appears that scouting trip to Montreal was actually a trip to assess Ottawa, not the Canadiens.  According to league insiders, the Rangers were in play for Matt Duchene, but it was Colorado's insistence that they include Brady Skjei that torpedoed that deal.  I would assume that Sather was looking at Kyle Turris who was at a contract impasse with the Senators, eventually going to Nashville in the Duchene deal.

According to Bob McKenzie, there were GM's aplenty at MSG last night, including the general managers of the St. Louis Blues, Columbus Blue Jackets and Edmonton Oilers.  Why?  You can be sure that Jeff Gorton knows how fragile the Rangers are and is still in the hunt for a center.   We shall see.

Brendan Smith was scratched again last night, making it eight straight games.  The $4.3 million he is making is beginning to look like a bad signing.  Vigneault said that he will get back into the lineup, but he is going with the Kampfer/Holden solution until  they lose.   Ranger fans can dream, but take Rick Nash's $7.8 million, Smith's $4.3 million and $12.1 million should be enough to lure John Tavares to the bright lights of Broadway.   We'll take a look at the cap situation for next year in another post, but it's worth noting that Brady Skjei, J.T. Miller, Jimmy Vesey and Kevin Hayes will all be looking for big paydays next season as RFA's. 

The Margin is Razor Thin

That's Better

So, Ranger fans can breathe a sigh of relief.  The team is one game under .500 and only one point out of a wild card spot despite their horrendous start. Believe it or not, in the last nine games, the Rangers have lost only twice in regulation.   Riding a three game winning streak, the team returns to MSG to face Columbus and Boston, both good tests for this team. 

The Rangers have benefited from one of the strangest seasons in recent memory.  Scoring is up.  Elite goaltenders are vulnerable.  Bad teams are good and good teams are bad.  Let's take a deeper look at the state of the NHL.

Mediocrity

The Eastern Conference is the very definition of parity.   Of the 16 teams in the East, only four are more than two games over .500.   Six teams are under .500 and six teams are hovering around the .500 mark.  Even more interesting is if you take overtime games out of the equation.  If you do, six teams are above .500.   Here are the records of the Eastern teams after sixty minutes of hockey:

Team	GP	W-L	Winning Percentage
Tampa	15	9-2	82%
New Jersey	12	6-3	67%
Ottawa	14	5-3	63%
Boston	12	5-4	56%
Columbus	14	5-4	56%
Islanders	13	6-5	55%
Philadelphia	15	6-6	50%
Toronto	15	6-7	46%
Washington	14	5-6	45%
Pittsburgh	16	5-6	45%
Carolina	12	3-5	37%
Rangers	15	4-7	36%
Detroit	14	4-7	36%
Florida	13	4-7	36%
Buffalo	14	3-8	27%
Montreal	14	3-8	27%

In the West, ten out of the fifteen teams are above .500, assisted greatly by the Arizona Coyotes 0-12 record.  In fact, every team in the Central Division is at .500 or above (not including OT games).

As mentioned in a previous post, the have-nots are doing much better this season.  In the East, half of the eight  teams in the playoffs as of Sunday morning, were not there last year.  In the West, it's even more dramatic.  Six out of the eight teams in playoff position now didn't make the post-season last year. 

What's the point of all of this?  I guess I am trying to say that as bad as the Blueshirts have been, there are very few teams in the East that are much better.  Tampa was expected to be an elite team with Stamkos back in the lineup.  New Jersey has been a surprise and the question is whether they can keep this up.   As for the rest of the conference, the teams the Rangers will be battling for a playoff spot are in win one, lose one territory.   And the teams that we all expected to be as good or better than the Rangers (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Montreal) are really not playing well.  Overachievers include Toronto, the Islanders, Boston and Philadelphia.  

The Winning Streak

The last three games have demonstrated how thin the margin is between success and failure in the NHL.   Against Vegas, the team looked awful.  They came to life in the third period, but remember they were shooting against an AHL second string goaltender.  They played a solid game in Tampa, but were helped by a disallowed third period goal.  The Rangers blew a third period lead yet again (another 6 on 5 goal allowed) against Florida.   As nice as their 6-7-2 record and three game winning streak is, they could just as easily be sitting at 3-8-4 with the blogosphere calling for Vigneault's head with a vengeance.  

Conversely, a few timely goals in their first dozen games and they could be sitting at 10-5-0 and in first place in the Metropolitan Division.  

The good news is the offense is clicking and power play continues to produce.  Rick Nash is showing signs of breaking out of his season-long slump and J.T. Miller is playing elite hockey.  They are also winning with Steven Kampfer and Nick Holden in the  lineup and still without a true third line center. The team also finally broke through and won a couple of games on the road. 

The bad news is Brendan Smith and his $4 million salary is riding the bench and the backup goalie is weak.  Lundqvist has shown flashes of brilliance, but also has his moments (Trocheck's tying goal in Florida was soft).   The team has also beaten only one "good" team this year (Tampa).  Their other wins have come against struggling teams. 

Five of their next six games are versus teams with "winning" records.  The other is against Edmonton at MSG and the Oilers are showing signs of life.  We will know a lot more about the 2017-18 New York Rangers by Thanksgiving.  With that razor thin margin, it could be a wild ride.