Thoughts

Okay, we are all Ranger fans so looking at the Washington Capitals' record doesn't do much for us.   Here goes:

Henrik Lundqvist.  Problem or solution?  

If you read Larry Brooks in the NY Post today, he is a problem.  Here's a link:  Larry Brooks on Lundqvist.  I've been a defender of the King and he outplayed Carey Price in the first round. However, I think the Ottawa Senators figured something out and that could spell a boatload of trouble for the Rangers moving forward.  When it comes to stopping the puck, Lundqvist's best  asset has been his positioning.  He was never a Jonathan Quick/Dominik Hasek acrobatic, lunging and flopping goaltender.  His ability to anticipate shots and move into position has been the key to his success.  It's why it never looked like he was working as hard as he was...he was always in position.  On pucks in the crease he does have the ability to stop pucks and react quickly, but it again was a matter of him getting his 6'1" frame in front of the puck.  

What Ottawa figured out was that he couldn't stop redirections from outside the crease or wrist shots from the inside half of the faceoff circle.  I looked at the goals Ottawa scored in games 2, 5 & 6.  In Game 2, arguably, he could have stopped four of the six goals scored by the Senators.   That includes all of the goals scored by Pageau.  Two were wrist shots and two were redirects.  All were stoppable. The other two goals were off rebounds and he could have stopped them, but it would have been tough.

In game 5, he should have stopped goals 3 and 5.  The third goal was a redirect by Tom Pyatt and the fifth (winning) goal was a Turris wrist shot.   The first and second goals were after scrambles in the crease so they could have been stopped.  The tying goals by Brassard bounced off Glass and Smith before Lundqvist just missed it.  It was luck.

In game 6 he should have stopped all three goals.  The Hoffman goal was a redirect and the last two were Karlsson wrist shots.

What this tells me is that there has been a deterioration of Lundqvist's reflexes.  He just couldn't react to those redirections and wrist shots from up close.  When younger, his reflexes were better though still not as strong as his positioning, but now that he is over 35, they are getting worse.   A clear indication of this was his inability to stop a wrist shot and keep control of the puck.  How many times this post season did he make the save, but drop the puck?  It happened repeatedly.  Antti Raanta would have swallowed those shots up....and kept control. It was very disconcerting. The King seemed to be constantly battling the puck.

The Rangers scored four goals in three games and five goals in a fourth.  They lost two of those games  If you score four goals in a Stanley Cup playoff game, you must win.  They didn't.  If other teams take the Ottawa blueprint there could be some pretty dire consequences for New York.  I'm not a goalie so I cannot say that it's hopeless, but it will be up to Lundvist and Benoit Allaire to fix this. Unfortunately, we won't know until next year if the window has closed on Henrik Lundqvist, one of the greatest Rangers ever.

The Power Play.   Fix It.

So,  the Rangers were 3 for 39 on the power play in this post-season.  Their 7.7% efficiency rating was better only than the St. Louis Blues. Their only saving grace was their 90% rate of killing penalties.  In game six, they were 0-4 including a double minor to Derick Brassard.  At times the PP "looked" good, but they couldn't score. 

Of the top six teams on the PP in the playoffs, two of them (Nashville and Pittsburgh) are still playing.   Two more took their series to seven games before losing (Washington and Edmonton). How many years is it going to take before the Rangers can put together a lethal power play?   If Scott Arniel is the architect of the Ranger power play, he needs to go.  In the first ten games of the season the power play was awesome and it featured Mika Zibanejad in the "Ovetchkin kitchen."    His slapshot from that spot was working, yet after he returned from his broken leg, we never saw that set-up again.  Why not?  

Kevin Shattenkirk is going to be the next savior of the Ranger power play in all likelihood.  He quarterbacked a PP with a 25% efficiency rating in the post-season.  Maybe, just maybe, he will do the same for the Rangers.  My fear is that he will go the same route as Keith Yandle and get swallowed into the pass-happy disaster that strikes the Rangers when they have the man advantage. Here's hoping.

The Captain.

Don't get me wrong.  I love Ryan McDonagh.  I have a McDonagh jersey.  He is one of the best defensemen in the NHL.  I just feel that as long as he has been captain, it has been too heavy a burden.  McDonagh is a leader by example, but he is not an in your face, inspirational leader.   Teams need different leadership.  This Ranger team needs Mark Messier and not Brian Leetch leadership.   Does that exist on this Ranger team?  I don't think so.  Derek Stepan has shown instances where he has been that kind of vocal leader, but after his inept performance this post-season I am not sold on him any longer (I would actually advocate trading him).   The only player I could see in that role would be the Hobbit, Mats Zuccarello.  He is feisty and emotional.  He's been fighting his whole life. He could be the right player for the job.  In a few years I could see Jimmy Vesey or J.T. Miller growing in that role as well, but right now they need to release McDonagh from that burden.  Simply put, it affects his play, negatively. 

The Defense

It's ironic that Dan Girardi  had a better post-season than one third of the Ranger defense.  Nick Holden was inept.  In game six, Holden looked scared when he got the puck and would hand it over to the Senators.   His ill-advised pinch in game 5 led to the game winning Ottawa break-in.  Sure, he scored two big goals, but he isn't paid to score, he is paid to defend.  His deficiencies were not obvious in the regular season, but in the playoffs, they were glaringly obvious.   I think we all learned why Colorado traded him for a middle draft pick.  Marc Staal was awful.   Whether it was because he was partnered with Holden or it was because he has become a mediocre defenseman is unclear. Constantly beaten to the puck and unable to win battles in the corners, Staal is a shell of himself.   It's hard to believe, but he has falled below Girardi in the defense depth chart. 

The biggest positive was the play of Brady Skjei.  He is a revelation and should have a long career on Broadway.   If the Rangers can sign Brendan Smith (a UFA) that would help.  The team has to buy out Staal or Girardi and can hopefully coerce Las Vegas into taking Klein or Holden.   The Rangers signed KHL defenseman Alexei Bereglazov.  He is a 23 year old stay at home defenseman who has three years in the KHL under his belt.  His contract includes a KHL out if he is not in the NHL so it looks like the team feels he will make the varsity next season.   So, the defense could look like this next season:

McDonagh-Skjei

Shattenkirk-Smith

Bereglazov-Girardi or Staal or Holden

This is a better defense.  Here's hoping.

Faceoffs

47.1%  That's the Ranger faceoff percentage.  Even worse, in the most important game of the season, in front of a home crowd, they had a winning percentage of 40%.   Let's break that down.  They won 2 out of 7 faceoffs in the offensive zone.  You want to kill momentum on the power play?  Lose a faceoff in the offensive zone.   You want to kill momentum on offense?  You lose a faceoff in the offensive zone and the Rangers lost 12 out of 19 faceoffs in the Ottawa zone.  Amazingly, Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes and Oscar Lindberg were all at 50% or above on faceoffs in that game.  It was Derek Stepan who was the culprit.  He won only five out of 17 faceoffs.  Yet, repeatedly in the third period, there was Stepan taking (and losing) crucial faceoffs.

My question is, don't the coaches have access to this data?  If a player is constantly losing faceoffs, why is he continuing to take them especially at home? I don't get it.  Although Stepan stinks on faceoffs, this one is on the coaches.

Scoring

In the regular season, Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes and Derek Stepan accounted for one third of all the goals scored by the team (84 of 253).  In the playoffs, they accounted for 14% (5 of 34).   Beating Montreal without scoring from that quartet was lucky.  When it continued against Ottawa, it was fatal. I have no explanation except that they choked.     While Kreider and Stepan have had some playoff success, not so for Miller and Hayes.  Those two have played played 74 post-season games between them.  They have scored three goals.  Miller has one in 40 games and Hayes has two in 34 games. Unacceptable.

5 on 6

The fact that the Rangers blew three leads and surrendered goals when the opposition pulled their goaltender has been well documented.  Steve Valiquette had an accurate take on this when he said that teams just don't practice that.  It's a good point, why should they?   If you look at the three games, there were numerous opportunities the Rangers could have cleared the puck and inevitably, they couldn't do it.  They lost defensive zone faceoffs.  They couldn't keep Montreal or Ottawa out of the zone in those games.  The simple reason is that they lost their composure and they played irrationally.   If you want to see a team that didn't panic, watch the last two minutes of the seventh game of the Pittsburgh-Washington series. The Caps never got their game going in the Pittsburgh zone and the Pens won without ever being really threatened.

Convergence

Think about it. Of all of the stuff I've written about here, they all converge in the last two minutes of Games 2 and 5.  Nick Holden and Marc Staal were on the ice in game two.  Panic and an inability to clear the puck led to the tying goals.   Staal was on the ice in when the tying goal was scored in Game 5.  

Lunqvist couldn't freeze the puck when he stopped it, giving up rebounds that led to more Senators offense.   Freezing the puck slows down the hysteria and allows the team to regain composure.  He couldn't do it.  And when they were able to freeze the puck and get a faceoff, they lost the draw.

It's no surprise that the team blew three leads in the last minute.

Game 6 Thoughts

• The Ottawa Senators won Games 5 & 6 with one fewer player than the Rangers.  Chris Neil played 1:49 in Game 6 and 2:26 in Game 5.  Guy Boucher willingly gave up a player and the Rangers couldn't take advantage of it.
• Tanner Glass has played his last game as a Ranger.  It is on Vigneault that he kept playing Glass.  His contributions in Games 3 & 4 were notable, but they should have played Buchnevich at the very least in Game 6.   Playing Glass kept Chris Neil in the lineup and Dzingel out of the lineup, but Glass was a liability (especially in Game 5).  
• The Garden crowd was good on Tuesday.  They almost drowned out Daniel Rodriguez during the national anthem and they only did the "Potvin Sucks" chant once.  Frustration set in late and there were some boos, but on the whole the crowd was into the game. They were in a frenzy after the Zibanejad goal, but the Blueshirts squashed it by allowing the Sens to score within three minutes.  
• Erik Karlsson is a great hockey player.  He was the single biggest reason that the Senators won the series.  What's frustrating is that the Rangers were able to knock him off his game in the first two games at MSG by hitting him repeatedly.   They hammered him whenever he touched the puck and he was in such bad shape he was pulled for the entire third period of Game 4. Yet, in Games 5 & 6, the Rangers stopped hitting him.  And he singlehandedly won Game 6 for Ottawa.    Why did the Rangers allow him to? It's on the coaches.  Here's a trivia question for you.  There is a member of the 2016-17 Rangers team who was traded for Erik Karlsson.  Who was it?   The answer will be below.
• The Rangers are at their best when their fourth line is Jesper Fast, Oscar Lindberg and Michael Grabner.  Jeff Gorton should do anything he can to keep that line together for next season. They seem impervious to the badness that overcame the rest of the team, they can score and they are the best defensive forwards on the team.  
• Rick Nash is a beast.  He was playing hurt.  He was kept out of every practice during the Ottawa series for "maintenance" days.  Yet, the effort was always there on both ends of the ice. He didn't get a point after scoring a goal in Game 3, but he was a presence.  There was something wrong with him and we will eventually find out what it was that limited him to a single goal and one assist in six games. 
• I'll say it again.  The Rangers need to find a way to keep Michael Grabner.  He is a shorthanded threat, get 2-3 breakaways a game and is solid defensively.  He led the team in goal-scoring in the playoffs and was second in goals in the regular season.  He's got the speed of Carl Hagelin and better hands.  If he goes to Las Vegas in the expansion draft the Rangers will rue the day. 
• Game 6 was the only game the Rangers lost.  Ottawa took the lead and never gave it up.  Sitting at the Garden it was always an uphill battle and the Rangers could never come back.  They dominated Game 1 and gave away Games 2 and 5.  This should have been a five game series.

There is a a lot of time to go over the personnel and look at the future Rangers.  The team will lose one player in the expansion draft and they actually have a first round draft pick this year (but no second or third round picks).  The salary cap will be tough and a buyout is looming for a veteran defenseman.  Stay tuned...the off-season has begun.

The answer to the trivia question is Taylor Beck, who played two games for the Rangers this season. Here's the background.  Erik Karlsson was drafted in the first round of the 2008 Entry Draft as the 15th overall pick.  The Senators were to pick 18th, but were worried that Karlsson would be gone by that time, so they traded their 2008 first round pick and their 2009 third round pick to the Nashville Predators for the 15th pick, keeping him away from Boston and Anaheim (who had the 16th and 17th picks).  Nashville picked the immortal goalie Chet Pickard with #18 pick.  Pickard most recently played with the Iserlohn Roosters of the Deutsche Eishockey Liga. With their third round 2009 pick, Nashville selected the aforementioned Taylor Beck. Beck played 85 games for the Preds scoring 11 goals and 12 assists.  He has since played two games for the Islanders, three for the Oilers and two for the Rangers.  In essence,  Nashville traded the best defenseman in the NHL for a career minor league goalie and a journeyman forward.  And that is why it took this long for the Nashville Predators to reach the Conference Finals.    By the way, the Rangers took Michael Del Zotto with the 20th pick so they never had a shot at Karlsson. 

Don't Feel So Bad

Before I get into the disaster versus Ottawa, let me provide all of you with a look at the brighter side. As frustrating as the Rangers can be, I only have one thing to say that can provide some solace at this time of hockey grief.  

Be glad you are NOT a Washington Capitals fan.  

I put most of this together in an email last year at this time, but it was worth revisiting (with some editing). 

The Capitals are a horror show.  Two straight Presidents Trophies and  they still got bounced in the second round. The Capitals even ended Justin Williams' amazing game seven record.  Until last night, he was 7-0 in games sevens with seven goals and seven assists.  Now he is 7-1 and has the same number of goals and assists. He's an UFA...do they re-sign him now that has become mortal?

Here are the updated numbers (they will make you cringe).    The Capitals made the playoffs the first time in 1983.  In the 34 years since then, they have finished first in their division ten times and won the Presidents trophy three times.  They’ve topped 100 points ten times and had over 90 points nine times.   That’s 90 points or better 19 out of 34 years.  They’ve made the playoffs 27 out of 34 years.  

In those 27 trips to the playoffs, they have lost in the first round 14 times. They’ve lost in the second round 11 times.  They lost in the Conference Finals once and the Stanley Cup Finals once.  Ouch.

Let’s look at their record since 2008 after they concluded a stretch of not making a playoff appearance in four years.  In the ten years since, they missed the playoffs once.  They finished first in their division seven times and won three Presidents Trophies.  They’ve never had less than 90 points in a full season.   And in those nine playoff appearances they’ve been eliminated in round one three times and in round two six times.  Double ouch.

In those same nine years, the New York Rangers missed the playoffs once.  They finished first in their division twice and won one Presidents Trophy.  They had more than 90 points in a full season nine times.   In those nine playoff appearances they been bounced in the round one three times, in round two twice, in round three twice and in the Finals once.  They came back from 3-1 deficits twice in the last four years. 

Now,  let’s talk about the most overrated coach in the NHL, Barry Trotz.  In essence, when the Capitals hired him, they hired the coaching equivalent of the Washington Capitals.  In Nashville, once they got past expansion they made the playoffs seven times in nine years.  Trotz lost in the first round five times, in the second round twice.   With the Caps, he has made the playoffs all three years and lost in the second round each time.   In his last 13 years as a head coach, he has made the playoffs 11 times, but he has never gotten his team to the Conference Finals.  Mike Babcock has coached 13 years and made the playoffs 12 times and gotten past the second round four times.   Since becoming coach of the Black Hawks, Joel Quenneville has made the playoffs nine times and gotten past the second round five times.   Even the much maligned Alain Vigneault has a better record..  In 15 seasons as a head coach, he has made the playoffs 12 years and gotten past the second round three times.    Yet, because he got Ovetchkin to backcheck and is a nice guy, Barry Trotz is one of the best coaches in the game.  Not.

Here are the updated stats about the Capitals including this year.  Since first making the playoffs in 1983….the Capitals have played 45 playoff games where they were facing elimination and HAD to win to continue playing.  They have won 16 of those games.  That’s 36%.  Their two wins against the Penguins while facing elimination raised that percentage from 30%.  But they still lost the big one. 

They have also played 41 games where a Capitals win would have clinched a series, and the Caps would have moved on.  They have won 12 of those games.  That’s 29%.

CAPITALS ALL-TIME RECORD IN ELIMINATION GAMES:  16-29

1983       1 game   0-1

1985       1 game   0-1

1986       1 game  0-1

1987       1 game  0-1

1988       5 games  1-4

1989       1 game  0-1

1990       1 game  0-1

1991       1 game  0-1

1992       1 game  0-1

1993       2 games  1-1

1994       2 games  1-1

1995       1 game   0-1

1996       1 game  0-1

1998       1 game  0-1

2000       2 games 1-1

2001       1 game  0-1

2003       1 game  0-1

2008       3 games  2-1

2009       5 games  4-1

2010       1 game  0-1

2011       1 game 0-1

2012       3 games  2-1      

2013       1 game 0-1

2015       2 games 1-1

2016      2 games 1-1

2017      3 games  2-1

CAPITALS ALL-TIME RECORD IN SERIES CLINCHING GAMES:   11-30

1984       1  game  1-0

1985       3 games  0-3

1987       3 games  0-3

1988       1 game 0-1

1990       2 games  2-0

1991       1 game  1-0

1992       3 games  0-3      

1994       2 games 1-1       

1995       3 games  0-3

1998       1 game  1-0                        

2008       1 game  0-1

2009       2 game 1-1

2010       3 games  0-3

2011       1 game  1-0

2012       3 games 1-2

2013       2 games  0-2

2015       5 games  1-4

2016       3 games  1-2

2017       2 games 1-1

There's a lot to talk about when it comes to the Rangers.  I will leave that to later blogs.  Hey, we've got the whole summer.  Jeff Gorton has some work to do and there will be the expansion draft.   But when you get that kick in the gut when you turn on the television and see the Ottawa Senators still playing, just think how Barry Trotz feels when he sees the Nashville Predators playing in the Conference Finals, coached by Peter Laviolette.  Peter Laviolette who is never mentioned in the same breath as Trotz when there is a discussion about the best coaches. Peter Laviolette who won a Stanley Cup with Carolina and took Philadelphia to the Finals. 

Later.

Blewshirts

I stole the name of this post from the New York Post because it really sums up this series (so far). Shades of the 1960 New York Yankees, the Rangers should be preparing for the next round instead of preparing for two must-win games.

The Rangers have led in this series for 179:52, been tied for 136:20 and trailed for all of 13:10.  It's unfathomable.

It's fascinating how the blogsphere goes silent after a loss like this.  The game was over by 630pm, but there are no articles on the usual sites except for a game recap on Blueshirt Banter.  The newspapers dutifully met their deadlines and have the most comprehensive coverage...but with the web, there are no deadlines and the Ranger fans who write these things have nothing to say.

I understand the feeling.  The last thing I want to do is over-analyze this latest debacle.  In the time we have before game six there will be ample discussion of Tanner Glass and why he was on the ice with a minute left in the game.  Why Tanner Glass was on the ice when the Senators scored the winning goal.  Why Brady Skjei got only five minutes of ice time in the third period. Why Jimmy Vesey, New York's most dynamic forward, saw only 14 minutes of ice time (third fewest on the team).   Why Chris Kreider has lost his scoring touch.  Why Henrik Lundqvist become mortal again.  Why they stopped hitting Erik Karlsson. Why a simple clear is impossible with two minutes or less left in a game.  Why, why, why

Most perplexing is how the Rangers shutdown defense has become porous in when facing the six on five manpower disadvantage.  Don't forget, this team came into this season with a reputation for holding leads (except in the Finals against the L.A. Kings).   Until this season, from February 5, 2010, the Rangers had gone into the third period with the lead 192 times.  They lost three of those games in regulation and 11 in overtime.  That's a success percentage of 94%.  

This regular season they went into the third period with the lead 31 times and lost four of those games.  That's a success percentage of 87%.

These playoffs,  they've had the lead going into the third period in seven games and lost three of those games.  That's a success percentage of 57%.   That's not good enough.

Considering that the Rangers have had three six on five goals scored against them....and the insanity in Anaheim on Friday night, is there something going on in the Stanley Cup Playoffs?  Maybe there is.  In the regular season there were 94 goals scored with a 6 on 5 manpower advantage in in 1,230 games (8% of the time).  Note that this includes 6 on 5 goals on delayed penalties. This post-season, there have been 13 goals scored with a 6 on 5 advantage in 62 games.  That's  21% of the time.

I took a deeper look.  Five of those 13 goals were on delayed penalties,  Eight goals were scored when the goalie was pulled  at the end of a game and that happened 37 times.  So, at the end of close games, with the goalie pulled, the team with the extra skater scored 22% of the time.   Sure, games are closer in the playoffs, but the disparity with the regular season is significant.

The inability to win faceoffs really hurt the team in this game.  The Rangers won only 43% of the draws overall and only 44% of the faceoffs in the defensive zone.  Zibanejad and Stepan were particularly bad.

Okay, enough numbers.  What is there to be positive about?  For 14 minutes, they looked like the team that dominated Ottawa twice at MSG. They came back from the devastating impact of two Ottawa goals in 33 seconds to tie the game.  They played a really strong third period and took the lead on an incredible effort by Jimmy Vesey.  They are coming home.

As previously noted, the Rangers NEVER make it easy.  Now they have to win two games.   They are good enough to do it, but they need to get back to the same game they played at the Garden.  Let's see if they can do it.

Some Numbers

Two straight dominant wins at Madison Square Garden.  They've now played 223 minutes of hockey against Ottawa. They've trailed for only 4:11.  They've been tied for 108:47 and they've had the lead for 149:56.  Crazy.  How is this series tied 2-2?

Even more craziness, Tanner Glass was named third star of the game with two assists.  There was an interesting discussion about Glass on the NHL Network.  In light of all of the analytics hatred for Glass, analysts Mike Rupp and Kevin Weekes came to his defense, citing "intangibles" as even more important in the playoffs.   Glass even talked about it with Yahoo Sports Greg Wyshynski.  This is what Glass said:  "You know what? The people who say those things don't know much about the game, or being part of a team.  Part of a locker room.  Espcially in a game like hockey. It's a physical game. There's so much that goes on, that the average fan doesn't understand.   To me, when I hear that stuff, it seems to be uneducated people."   While Tanner Glass may not be a great player, something is working and if it ain't broke, don't fix it. FYI...he has more points than Erik Karlsson in this series.

The Garden crowd has been good for two games, but that insane "USA" chant should just stop.  I've been to MSG for games vs. Montreal and the hatred for Canada from the crowd (screaming f--k Canada) makes no sense.  The height of idiocy was after Bobby Ryan and Dan Girardi tussled at the end of the game. You could hear the chant on the telecast.  Someone should have told the crowd that Bobby Ryan is from Cherry Hill, NJ and Dan Girardi is from Welland, Ontario. Just dumb.

Here are some numbers:

• The Ranger penalty kill has been pretty good. They've allowed four power play goals in ten games. At 87.9% (29-33), it is the best among the teams still playing.   They lead all teams with three shorthanded goals. 
• As good as the penalty kill is, the power play has been dreadful.   The Blueshirts are 3-32 for a scintillating 9.4% efficiency rating. If you use the ten second factor (goals scored within ten seconds of a PP ending), they are 5-32 (15.6%).  Still not great. 
• The only team with a worse PP than New York is St. Louis. You think they don't miss Kevin Shattenkirk on the power play? He has four points on the man advantage, twice as many points as the number of PP goals scored by the Blues.  The Capitals' power play he quarterbacks is the best (25.8%) among the remaining playoff teams. 
• As unbelievable as it seems, the Rangers are leading the playoffs in hits with 433 (43 hits per game). 
• They also lead all teams with 215 blocked shots. 
• The Rangers are second in shots taken (behind Washington) with 324 (32 per game). 
• Faceoffs.  Still not the Rangers best work. The regular season winning percentage was 48.4%.  In the playoffs, they are worse at 48.1%.  It is significant that the teams with the 3-1 leads in their series are both above 52% in faceoffs.  Another reason the Rangers want to play Edmonton if they make the finals?  The Oilers are the worst team at faceoffs in the playoffs. 
• The Rangers regular season scoring prowess has continued into the playoffs.  They are averaging 2.8 goals per game, third in the postseason behind Pittsburgh and Anaheim. 
• Defensively, the Rangers are second of the teams still playing, averaging 2.1 goals allowed per game.  Get this, Nashville is allowing only 1.4 goals per game.  They will be tough. 
• The Rangers' best period is the second where they have scored 14 goals, second best behind Pittsburgh.  They are third best in first period goals with eight.  They've only scored five third period goals, worst among  the remaining team. Pittsburgh (13) and Nashville (12) have been very dangerous late in games.  That said, the Rangers have gone into the third period with the lead in seven games so third period scoring hasn't been that necessary (except to finish off a team).  They blown two leads in those games and lost.  The other element is that they have gone into the third period trailing only once in ten games (they lost) and they have gone into the third period tied only twice (1-1). 
• Analytics....hmmm.  The Rangers Corsi stands at third worst in the playoffs at 47.44%.  Who is the worst?  The Pittsburgh Penguins at 41.53%.  Here are the top five teams in Corsi in the playoffs:  1) Minnesota 2) Washington 3) Columbus 4) Montreal 5) Anaheim.  Here are the five worst:  1) Pittsburgh 2) St. Louis 3) Rangers 4) San Jose 5) Toronto.  There may be something to this discussion of playoff "intangibles" that make pure analytics less relevant. 
• Watching Erik Karlsson play through pain is pretty inspiring.  The Rangers have punished him the same way the Lightning picked on Ryan McDonagh in 2015.  What goes around comes around. 
• Nick Holden had a great game.  He needs to teach Michael Grabner that move on the goal he scored.  He was behind only Ryan McDonagh in minutes played at 19:42.  Vigneault is doing something right with his defensive matchups.  "Intangibles."
• Oscar Lindberg, Jesper Fast and Michael Grabner.  All key parts of this team and one of them is likely to go to Las Vegas in the expansion draft.  Who should it be?  There has been some chatter about a draft choice going to LV as part of a deal where they would take Kevin Klein.  
• Speaking of Las Vegas, they signed their second player yesterday....Russian forward Vadim Shipachyov who was a big scorer in the KHL.  He's the second player signed by Las Vegas, following WHL player Reid Duke two weeks ago.  I was in Las Vegas last week and the locals were all upset that they named the team the "Golden Knights."   Nevada's official nickname is "The Silver State" and it's reasonable to wonder why the "Silver Knights" didn't make the cut. Yeah, Golden Knights does sound better. 

The Rangers once played a five game series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  The two teams were tied for 189:27.  The Rangers led for 110:54.  They only trailed for 69:34.  They were clearly the dominant team and won the series, right?  Nope.  That series was the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals vs. the Los Angeles Kings.  And that is what happens when you blow leads and lose in overtime. 

It's now a three game series and the league's best road team has to win at least one game in Ottawa. If Craig Anderson keeps playing like this and Erik Karlsson is indeed crippled, it will be an easier road. Of course, our heroes never take the easy road....so it will probably be a seven game series. 

An Opportunity

The Rangers convincing 4-1 victory was a clutch win and put them in the exact same situation they were in against Montreal, down 2-1 going into game four at MSG.  I really don't think that there has been a moment in this series that Ottawa looked like the better team. The numbers reflect that. The Rangers have had the lead over the Senators for 104 minutes.  They have been tied for 94:43.  They have trailed for only 4:11.  They've played over 203 minutes of hockey and been behind for four minutes and change.  Wow.

Of course, the Rangers need to win Thursday night to avoid the dreaded 3-1 hole.  If they can do it and go on and win the series there are opportunities this post-season that could really be considered once in a lifetime.

First, Sidney Crosby has a concussion and is day to day.  With his history of head injuries, he will have to be 110% before he is allowed back on the ice.  It's amazing how all of the pundits handed the series to Washington when Crosby was sidelined. Pittsburgh's comeback with two goals in the last two minutes of game three was spectacular, but their win tonight was even more impressive.  That said, they won on a goal deflected into his own net by Dmitri Orlov of Washington.  And their defense was definitely running around quite a bit in their own zone.  But Washington is now in a 3-1 hole and in jeopardy of going out early in the playoffs the second year in a row after winning the Presidents Trophy.  If they are eliminated, I will revisit their spectacular record of post-season ineptitude...but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

If the Blueshirts can get by Ottawa, they could end up playing a crippled Pittsburgh team.  This was the scenario all Ranger fans were hoping for.  Pittsburgh and Washington beat each other's brains out while the Rangers have an "easier" path through the Atlantic Division.  If the Rangers can beat Pittsburgh the elusive dream of a Stanley Cup becomes more attainable.  Think about it.  Chicago is out.  Minnesota is out.  San Jose is out.  Nashville and St. Louis are both flawed teams (though Nashville is better defensively and they lead 3-1).  Anaheim has a history of coming up short and Edmonton is on a dream run and they have no playoff experience.

If Nashville or St. Louis can make it to the Finals vs. the Rangers, the Blueshirts will have home ice advantage.  Anaheim and Edmonton both finished with more points than the Rangers so they would have home ice.  Now, don't you wish the team had played its regulars in those last few games? The Ducks finished with 105 points and the Oilers with 103 vs. the Rangers 102. And the Rangers hold the tie breaker.  Sleepwalking throught the last 15 games of the season could have an effect.  Ugh.

The biggest reason I think the Rangers could pull this off is Henrik Lundqvist.  The man knows his window is closing.  He knows this could be his best chance.  He is so competitive, he will try to win this Cup through sheer will.  Wouldn't it be great if we had a Henrik Lundqvist-Cam Talbot showdown in the Stanley Cup Finals?

Okay, okay...enough speculation.  There is a long road ahead and we can dream.  Now, they need to go out and beat Ottawa.

Underrated

Brady Skjei is having a fabulous post-season and is continually overlooked by the national media (and the NBC broadcasters).  Skjei's four goals trails only Jake Guentzel of the Penguins among rookies.   He is tied with Ryan Ellis of Nashville for most goals by a defenseman (rookie or vet).   There are 18 rookies left (Washington has NONE) in the playoffs and here is where Skjei stands.

Goals (4) -  2nd
Points (4) - 3rd
Plus/Minus (+6) - 2nd
Points per Game (0.44) - 3rd
Time on Ice (19:17) - 2nd
Shifts per game (27) - 1st

Jimmy Vesey hasn't scored a goal yet, but he is 4th among rookies still playing in total points.   Vesey is also playing the third most minutes per game among rookie forwards.

Tanner Glass

The Glass haters were conspicuously silent followng Game 3.  All he did was play ten minutes on the fourth line and add an assist on the goal scored by Oscar Lindberg.  He played a responsible game and had three hits.  The Tanner Glass issue is fascinating.  He is reviled by the analytics aficionados as the worst player in the league.  He is clearly a favorite of Alain Vigneault.   What makes it interesting is that almost unanimously, former players vouch for him and his style of play.  It's the intangibles that make him popular among players and former players. There is no doubt that Pavel Buchnevich is a better hockey player.  But Tuesday night, Glass brought something to the team that couldn't be denied and definitely contributed to the win.

A Shutout Lost

Everyone missed it (unless you were at the game), but the only goal scored by Ottawa on Tuesday night was the direct result of the puck hitting the referee. Ryan McDonagh had clear possession of the puck and shot it around the end boards to a wide open Rick Nash.  The puck hit the referee in the foot and ricocheted across the zone into the boards where it bounced away from Nash.  The Senators got possession and scored a few seconds later (on an amazing pass from Bobby Ryan).  If the puck doesn't hit the ref, Nash gets the puck out of the zone, the goal isn't scored and the King has another shutout.  No one on the television side noticed the deflection.

Powerless Play

Before Ranger fans go crazy about the lack of scoring on the power play I have to point out that in Game 2, the Rangers scored two goals less than ten seconds after a power play had ended (one was less than five seconds).   Both goals were in the second period when the penalty box is further from the defensive zone.  So, even though they are officially 1-11 (9%) on the PP, they are really almost 3-11 which is a very healthy 27%.  Throw in the two shorthanded goals, and the special teams are playing just fine.

Another Signing

You might have missed it, but the Rangers signed another collegiate free agent this week. Neal Pionk was signed out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth where he was the top defenseman on a team that went to the Frozen Four and the National Title Game (which they lost).  The Minnesota native is an offensive defenseman and most important, is a righthand shot.  

Jeff Gorton has been busy and he adds Pionk to a stable of collegiate signees including 22 year old center Vinni Letteri of the University of Minnesota, Goalie Chris Nell of Bowling Green and Defenseman Vince Pedrie of Penn State.  Most of these players will play in Hartford where the Wolf Pack could use the depth after they had the worst season in their 93-year history.  

A Poem

Here's a poem sent to me by a reader of this website...before game 3. 

Game 2 against Ottawa, there were many culprits to blame,

Why don't we begin with Coach Alain?

Stop putting out Holden and Staal in critical junctures of play,

I would rather see Brendan Smith and Brady Skjei.

Disappointed in J.T. Miller and Kevin Hayes,

He plays so small in so many different ways.

And Coach, what's up with shortening the bench?

That contributed to that Game 2 stench.

We blew yet another two goal playoff game lead, makes me sick,

Brought back bad Cup memories when the King was outplayed by Jonathan Quick.

Game 3 obviously is a must or it's our ass,

Coach, don't sit Buchnevich for Tanner Glass. 

The author of the poem was clearly off base on Tanner Glass, but Vigneault did see the light and kept Holden and Staal on limited ice time in favor of Skjei and Smith.  At any rate, a nice attempt.

Finally

The Rangers certainly like to have their backs to the wall.  Since 2011 when they went to the Conference Finals, they have played 14 playoff series. In six of them, they have trailed 1-2  Their record is 4-2 in those series. In fact, in six series they have trailed 2-3 and four times the Rangers have won the last two games to win a seven game series.  Even if they lose game four, they have come back twice from 1-3 deficits since 2011 to win a series.