Saturday, April 29, 2017

Well, That Was Pretty Ugly

The Rangers disaster this afternoon in Ottawa will be analyzed to death in the newspapers and on the web.  Alain Vigneault is already being roasted for making bad decisions. Look, second guessing is easy, but it's obvious that something screwy was going on in the recesses of his mind.  Brady Skjei and Brendan Smith were an effective duo on defense and they played far fewer minutes than Nick Holden and Marc Staal (both of whom were borderline awful).  He stapled Oscar Lindberg and Pavel Buchnevich to the bench in the overtime and by the second session, the other forwards were gassed. Even the awful NBC announcers noticed that Lindberg was not playing and commented on it. To shorten the bench in an overtime is suicide, plain and simple.  Yet, it happened.

Henrik Lundqvist proved that he is human.  True, five of the six goals were not his fault, but he has been stopping those kinds of shots in the prior seven playoff games.  For it to not happen today was just awful timing.

The Rangers had many opportunities to put the game away against a very ordinary Craig Anderson. The culprits were many (J.T. Miller and Rick Nash).  The bottom line is the game shouldn't have even been contested.

Athough Kreider and Stepan roused themselves from their playoff slumber, Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller look confused out there.   They need to score.  Oscar Lindberg and Pavel Buchnevich both looked better than Hayes and Miller, but Hayes continued to play crucial minutes.  At least Lindberg was hitting people.

Watching the Rangers blow a pair of two goal leads in the third period brought back all kinds of horrible Stanley Cup Final memories.  Though, this time it wasn't due to a prevent offense, it was just due to overall sloppy play and a spectacular performance by Jean Gabriel Pageau.  Who is he?  He's a 24 year old in his third full season in the NHL.  He scored 19 goals two years ago...but notched only 12 goals this season.  Until today, he had five goals in 23 playoff games.  Now he has nine in 24.

I was preparing to do a nice post about how great Brady Skjei is (he is outperforming a lot of veteran defensemen)....until the wheels came off.  Sickening.

So, how difficult is it to blow a two goal lead?  Not as difficult as you may think. In 49 playoff games this year, two goal leads went bye-bye in eleven games.  Of those eleven, the team blowing the lead lost nine times. Only St. Louis and Ottawa were able to overcome blowing a two goal lead to go on and win. However, the Rangers did accomplish something unusual for this year's playoffs.  The only other team to blow a 2 goal lead in the third period these playoffs was the Boston Bruins.  And the Rangers are the only team to blow a two goal lead with only four minutes left in the third period.  Oh, the team that beat the Bruins when they were down two goals in the third period?  The Ottawa Senators.

So the Blueshirts get to stew about this disaster for two days before taking the Senators on at the Garden on Tuesday.  Can they recover?  One thing is clear, they are a better team than the Ottawa Senators.  They just have to play like it.  They play the best with their backs to the wall and they haven't lost at home yet.  Let's see what happens.







Sunday, April 23, 2017

The Schedule is Out

The schedule is out for the second round...full schedule is below (courtesy of NHL.com).   It will take two full weeks to play the second round and the Rangers have two gaps of two days off.  They certainly won't be physically taxed in this round.  The Capitals/Penguins series and the Predators/Blues series will be played in one fewer game. Edmonton/Anaheim have the most travel and play in the same number of days as the Rangers.  Ranger fans clearly have to hope for a long and physical series between Pittsburgh and Washington and they will be playing every other day for the first four games.  They then have a two day break and then are every other day for the last three games.

If the Blueshirts can get through Ottawa quickly (highly unlikely behavior from our heroes) they stand to be better rested than Pittsburgh or Washington (and should be  anyway if the series with Ottawa goes long).

As for television, the Rangers first game is on CNBC, the second on national television and the next two on NBCSN.  No games will air on MSG Network so no more Sam Rosen.  MSG will continue post-game coverage after every playoff game.


EASTERN CONFERENCE 

Ottawa Senators (A2) vs. New York Rangers (WC1)
Thursday, April 27, 7pm: Rangers @ Senators | CNBC
Saturday, April 29, 3pm: Rangers @ Senators | NBC
Tuesday, May 2, 7pm: Senators @ Rangers | NBCSN
Thursday, May 4, 7:30pm: Senators @ Rangers | NBCSN
*Saturday, May 6, TBD: Rangers @ Senators | TBD
*Tuesday, May 9, TBD: Senators @ Rangers | TBD
*Thursday, May 11, TBD: Rangers @ Senators | TBD

Washington Capitals (M1) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (M2)
Thursday, April 27, 7:30pm: Penguins @ Capitals | NBCSN
Saturday, April 29, 8pm: Penguins @ Capitals | NBC
Monday, May 1, 7:30pm: Capitals @ Penguins | NBCSN
Wednesday, May 3, 7:30pm: Capitals @ Penguins | NBCSN
*Saturday, May 6, TBD: Penguins @ Capitals | TBD
*Monday, May 8, TBD: Capitals @ Penguins | TBD
*Wednesday, May 10, TBD: Penguins @ Capitals | TBD

WESTERN CONFERENCE 

St. Louis Blues (C3) vs. Nashville Predators (WC2)
Wednesday, April 26, 8pm: Predators @ Blues | NBCSN
Friday, April 28, 8pm: Predators @ Blues | NBCSN
Sunday, April 30, 3pm: Blues @ Predators | NBC
Tuesday, May 2, 9:30pm: Blues @ Predators | NBCSN
*Friday, May 5, TBD: Predators @ Blues | TBD
*Sunday, May 7, TBD: Blues @ Predators | TBD
*Tuesday, May 9, TBD: Predators @ Blues | TBD

Anaheim Ducks (P1) vs. Edmonton Oilers (P2)
Wednesday, April 26, 10:30pm: Oilers @ Ducks | NBCSN
Friday, April 28, 10:30pm: Oilers @ Ducks | NBCSN
Sunday, April 30, 7pm: Ducks @ Oilers | NBCSN
Wednesday, May 3, 10pm: Ducks @ Oilers | NBCSN
*Friday, May 5, TBD: Oilers @ Ducks | TBD
*Sunday, May 7, TBD: Ducks @ Oilers | TBD
*Wednesday, May 10, TBD: Oilers @ Ducks | TBD

How Far Can This Team Go?

That is the question all Ranger fans are now pondering, now that the euphoria over the win of the Canadiens has started to dissipate.  The team is ripe to take advantage of the ridiculous NHL playoff seeding system as they will be facing a "weaker" opponent while the Penguins and Toronto/Washington beat each others brains out.  A word about "weaker" opponents.  Ask the Minnesota Wild, the Chicago Blackhawks or the San Jose Sharks about taking weaker opponents lightly.   It's important to note that most upsets take place in the first round and this year was no exception.

The Next Round


Ottawa holds a 3-2 lead and may have closed out the series by the time you read this. For the Rangers' sake, you have to hope that Boston extends the series to seven games.   Based on the regular season the Rangers should prefer Boston as they won all three games against the Bruins.  They won their first two games 5-2  in the first six weeks of the season.   The last game was a 2-1 win in Boston with the Bruins playing under their new coach, Bruce Cassidy.

The Ottawa Senators were a tougher opponent for the Rangers this season as they lost two of three games to the Senators.  The first game was a desultory 2-0 shutout at the Garden, the second a 4-3 win at home with Antti Raanta in net and the final contest was a meaningless 3-1 loss in the second to last game of the season with a third of the regulars scratched.   The Rangers match up well against both teams with more firepower and speed.

The X factor for Ottawa is Erik Karlsson. He has been playing lights out and is doing it all while being hampered by a leg injury.  He is AVERAGING 30:30 minutes per game and an assist per game in the playoffs.   Their leading scorer is Derick Brassard wth two goals and four assists.  Bobby Ryan has three goals and has elevated his game.  The other former Ranger is Viktor Stalberg who was acquired at the trade deadline.   With Mark Stone, Kyle Turris and Mike Hoffman, the Senators have some offensive ability and on the blueline, they have a heavy hitter in Dion Phaneuf.    Ranger fans will never forget the massive hit that Phaneuf laid on Michael Sauer in 2011, ending his career.  

You can see it here, click on this link: Phaneuf hit on Sauer

First year coach Guy Boucher has got the team playing a defensive style of play.  They've scored 12 goals in five games while allowing 11.  Three of the five games with the Bruins have gone to overtime.  In comparison, the Rangers scored 14 goals in their six games and allowed only  11. The big advantage for New York has to be in net with Henrik Ludnqvist playing out of his mind.  Ottawa goalie is journeyman Craig Anderson who had the year of his life and who has become an inspiration to his team as his wife battles cancer.  Ottawa may win the battle of intangibles, but the Rangers are clearly the better team.

Boston boasts Brad Marchand who had a Crosby/McDavid kind of season for the Bruins. Unfortunately for Boston, that has not carried over to the playoffs as he has only one goal and one assist in five games.  Tukka Rask has played well, but not to the level of the King.   Dominic Moore is the only former Ranger on the Bruins roster.  Zdeno Chara is showing his age (40)  and the Sens have exploited their speed when he is on the ice.  One player to watch is Charlie McAvoy.   The Boston University star defenseman signed right out of college and made his Bruins debut in the first game of the playoffs.   He is averaging over 26 minutes per game (second only to Chara).   He may be good, but that also says much about the depth of the Boston defense.The Bruins had the best penalty kill in the league, a legacy of former coach Claude Julien. Considering the Rangers pathetic 1-15 (6%) power play in round one, that is a concern.

So, Back to the Question


How far can the Rangers go?  Can they run the table and make it to the finals and even raise the Cup? Here 's why the answer is a resounding "Yes."

  • Henrik Lundqvist.  He is their best player and he is playing his best.  The fiercest competitor on the team knows he is running out of time.  Don't forget that the late season injury enabled Hank to get some needed rest before the playoff marathon began.  Most encouraging is that he didn't have the one awful game he usually has per playoff series. 
  • Scoring.  The Rangers won this series and how many non-empty net goals were scored by Kevin Hayes, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Jimmy Vesey and Kris Kreider?  None.  As incredible as that seems, it happened. If these guys start scoring anywhere near their capability, look out.  The Hayes/Zuccarello/Miller line was dominant in Game 6.  It bodes well for the next round.
  • Pavel Buchnevich.  Okay, Tanner Glass played well in his brief stint in the lineup, but Buchnevich is an artist who creates offense whenever he is on the ice.  His defense is nothing to be embarrassed by either.  If Vigneault takes him out of the lineup again, he is crazy. 
  • Ryan McDonagh, Brendan Smith, Dan Girardi and Brady Skjei.  Those four defensemen were outstanding in this series.  Marc Staal a bit less and Nick Holden not so. It's encouraging that Vigneault recognized that and used Holden the least of the four d-men.  
  • Injuries.  There are none.  We all know that the playoffs are a marathon and so far, the Rangers have remained healthy (as far as we know).  Injuries will come and the Rangers are deep enough to manage. 
  • The Western Conference.  The Chicago Blackhawks are playing golf.  So are the Minnesota Wild and the San Jose Sharks.  Of the remaining playoff teams, all have major question marks.  Considering the Rangers record againt the West (21-6-1), is is significant that the competition got that much "easier" after this first round. 
There are significant obstacles ahead.  Obstacles that can turn the optimism of today into the losing side of the handshake line.  Here's how the answer becomes a reluctant "No." 
  • Inconsistency.  While the team answered some questions emphatically  with their win over the Canadiens, they also exhibited the same infuriating issues that have dogged them for years. The incredibly inept performance in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden still torments Ranger fans.  How can a team just not show up at such a crucial time?  Was the team that dominated the overtime in Game 5 the same team ?  It's almost incomprehensible. 
  • Injuries.  Key injuries to important players are unavoidable.  Losing Lundqvist, McDonagh or Nash or Zuccarello would cripple the team. 
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins.  Assuming that the Pens can beat either Toronto or Washington, the defending champions loom large as the biggest obstacle to a march to the Finals.  Even without Kris Letang, the Penguins are a formidable, deep team.  This is a much improved Ranger team over the won that got crushed by the Penguins last year, but the Pens are the same skilled team who will be seeing the same opportunity as the Rangers to run the table and for them, go back-to-back. 
  • The Washington Capitals.  If they can make it past Pittsburgh, a Ranger-Capital series will be epic.  The Caps have so much to play for and they have the best goalie in the league. 
We will know the Rangers second round opponent today or Tuesday.  More to come once we know. In the meantime, just soak it in.  Winning is awesome. 




Monday, April 17, 2017

Zzzzz

I am not going to get into how bad that game was.  Let's just say that the Rangers were awful.  What is inexplicable was the lack of effort.  Ron Duguay and Steve Valiquette were very eloquent in the post-game show on MSG.  No shots, no pressure, no passes, no emotion.  Faceoffs are an excellent gauge of how "into" a game a team is and the Rangers were abysmal.  It was ugly.

The final stats show that the Canadiens won the faceoff battle 53-47%.  That is inflated because the Rangers won nine out of the last eleven faceoffs AFTER the Habs made it 3-0. At the time of the Radulov goal they Ranger faceoff winning percentage was 40% (19 of 48).  Awful.

As the eternal optimist I do have to point out that the Rangers scored on Carey Price (preventing the shutout was more important than you think) and Kevin Klein laid an awesome hit on Torrey Mitchell in garbage time.




For the second game in a row, the refs were just awful. The crucial penalty on J.T. Miller for playing the puck with his hand was a marginal call.  I can honestly say that I have watched hundreds if not thousands of NHL games and have NEVER seen that call.  Now, it has been called twice in the same playoff series. This was an even-up call.  A non-holding call that prevented Rick Nash from a shorthanded scoring opportunity allowed Shea Weber to score their second goal in the second half of the Zuccarello double minor.

However, it was not the referees that cost the Rangers this game.  It was their inexplicable continued inability to score at Madison Square Garden. Here are some mind boggling stats about Stanley Cup Scoring at MSG:


  • In their last five home games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs (going back to game 5 of the 2015 ECF), they have scored TWO GOALS. In their last five road games, they have scored 14 goals. 
  • It gets worse.  Going back to their Eastern Conference clinching 1-0 win over Montreal in 2014, they have scored 24 goals in 17 games for an average of 1.4 goals per game and their record is 8-9.  In that same time period the Rangers are averaging 3 goals per game on the road. Inexplicable. 
  • Their home losing streak is now in its third post season at six games.  For all of the Lundqvist haters, here are the scores of the games they WON:  2-1, 2-1, 2-1, 3-2, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1 and 1-0.   They AVERAGE two goals per game in their wins.   Henrik Lundqvist has absolutely no margin for error. 


So, what to expect tomorrow night?  I have absolutely no idea.  Here are the questions:

  • Will Buchnevich play in an effort to jump start the offense?  If so, who comes out?
  • Will Chris Kreider wake up and play a typical Kreider playoff game?
  • Will Holden make it back into the lineup?  Could be be worse than Kevin Klein who was undressed by Radulov on the third Montreal goal? 
  • Will the Rangers PP ever get on track (Buchnevich might help)?  They are 0-10. 
  • Will Kevin Hayes play a game commensurate with his size? 
  • Vigneault shook up the lines in the third period (to little effect).  What will the lines be for Game 3. 
  • Can Mika Zibanejad play an effective game in the playoffs?  
  • Can the Rangers beat Carey Price if they don't clog the middle and take more shots?
In a perfect world they come out with jump and desire and run the Canadiens out of the building. Let's see if they do it. 





Saturday, April 15, 2017

Deja Vu All Over Again

Ouch. That one hurt. 17 seconds away from coming home with a 2-0 lead in this series.  17 seconds away from putting a thousand pounds of pressure on the Canadiens.   17 seconds away from having to win two games out of the next five.   Why did they lose?  I'll get to that shortly.  First, some notes.

  • Nick Holden has been absolutely horrible in these two games.  Except for his outlet pass to Jimmy Vesey that led to the Rick Nash goal, he has been a horrorshow, especially in the defensive zone.   As a result, the Staal-Holden pairing has been the  worst on the team with the two both -2 on the game. The coach is getting a LOT of heat on the web for having Staal and Holden out for the tying goal. My only note on this is that the last faceoff before the goal was with 2:08 left in the game. McDonagh and Girardi were the defense tandem on the ice....replaced by Staal/Holden.   I am sure Vigneault thought that he was going to get one more opportunity to change so he could finish the game with McDonagh and Girardi.  They never got on the ice as the puck never left the Ranger zone. (SEE BELOW FOR MORE)
  • As bad as Nick Holden has been, Brendan Smith has been a revelation.  We are still waiting for his one horrific mistake a game, but he has been playing with grit and guts. I guess playing for the best coach in the game for years rubs off on you. 
  • As far as the rest of the defense, Ryan McDonagh has been....well, Ryan McDonagh.  Brady Skjei is something special...Ranger fans know it, but the rest of the hockey world doesn't.  Dan Girardi has played a solid, effective game.  His hit on Pacioretty in game one was beautiful to watch and was vintage Girardi. 
  • The MSG analysts made a big deal about the need to clog the middle and make it tough on Carey Price.   That was what Derek Stepan said in a pre-game interview as the main mission for the team. Simply put, they didn't do it (the Canadiens did).  Nash and Grabner scored on breakways and the Zuccarello goal was a semi-screen.  The key to the Ranger goals was shooting quickly, before Price has a time to react.  That is the only way you can beat him if you are NOT going to clog the crease.
  • The King was magnificent.   The 58 shots he faced was a career playoff high (even more than the double OT games in L.A.).  His save percentage of .931 was better than Price's .921.  It is unforgiveable that the Rangers did not stop play when he broke his stick.  The defensive tandem?   Staal and Holden.  It was a performance for the ages and any doubts that Lundqvist can elevate his game are erased.   It is such a shame he had to lose.
  • Speaking of magnificent, can anyone play a grittier game than our own hobbit?  Zuccarello is the most fun player to watch in the NHL.  Picking a fight with Steve Ott was just one of the thirty wonderful things he did in the game.  The Rangers lost the series to Tampa in 2015 for one reason...they didn't have Mats.  
  • Can the blogsphere stop picking on Tanner Glass?  He hasn't done anything to hurt his reason for playing and the fourth line has truly been the most effective line for the Rangers,  He had ten of the team's 74 hits.  74 hits....can anyone remember a game in which the Rangers had 74 hits?  I cannot. 
  • The jury is out on Mika Zibanejad.  He only won 40% of his draws last night and he hasn't scored.  He passed on a one-timer during a PP, instead dishing  a pass to the opposite side.   He should have shot.  Somewhere, deep in the brains of Ranger fans is the gnawing notion that Derick Brassard would have done something...knowing his clutch play in the playoffs the last few years.   
  • Speaking of faceoffs, the best faceoff man for the team was Oscar Lindberg at 9-2.  Kevin Hayes was over 50% in both games...his improvement in all aspects of his game is notable. 
  • As good as Hayes has been, the Miller/Grabner/Hayes line has been neutralized for the most part by Montreal.  Miller is hitting everything in sight, but they haven't had the "looks" that we need them to get.  
  • It's a different story for Rick Nash who has been a beast.  His Stanley Cup window is closing and I think he knows it.  
  • The referees in this game were abysmal.  How the Canadiens came out of that scrum with a power play was incomprehensible.  A double roughing penalty for Zuccarello?  Really?  And there were numerous missed and incorrect calls, the most onerous being the roughing penalty on Brady Skjei who prevented Brendan Gallagher from beheading Lundqvist.  Do the refs NOT look at the history of these teams before the series?  How do they not know that Gallagher has repeatedly crashed into Lundqvist (many more times than Kreider into Price).

So, What Happened?


Okay...so why did they lose?  Here is something I wrote in my first Ranger email on June 18, 2014 after the loss to the Kings in the Finals:

The Rangers didn’t score a goal after the second period in their last seven games in the playoffs.  I put the responsibility for that on Vignault and his coaching style.  The Rangers went into a third period short shift strategy with a lead and it worked magnificently in the 6th game against Montreal as they limited them to virtually no shots.  However, it failed miserably against L.A.  The simple reason was that the Kings were far more efficient at moving the puck out of the defensive zone than the Montreal Canadiens.  Against L.A. the Rangers would dump in and change…and by the time they were fully changed, the Kings were already past the red line and pressuring the defense.  Thirty seconds later, the Rangers clear their zone and what do they do? They dump in and change.  So…no offensive pressure, no forecheck, no shots on goal.   In the third period of game five, Kreider had the puck and was ready to move into the Kings zone…but he was all alone (his linemates were changing) so he dumped the puck in and changed.   It’s no mystery that the Rangers were far more effective in OT when they DIDN’T have the lead.  Credit the Kings and their defense’s ability to move the puck quickly.   

Last night I felt that I was seeing the same thing as in the Kings series.  Short shifts, no offense, constant defensive zone pressure.  They withstood it in game one, but last night it cost them the game.  The shift changes came so fast that whenever the Rangers had a chance to go into the Montreal zone they just dumped and changed.  This Montreal team is better than the team in 2014 and are better and gaining the blue line and forcing offense in the Ranger zone.  And don't forget, the 2014 team had Anton Stralman and a younger, more mobile Dan Girardi and Marc Staal.

I asked Joe Micheletti about that in the off-season and he related that he had talked to Vigneault about the same issue.  He told me that the coach said it was the players who changed...not wanting to get caught on ice for an overlong shift, it wasn't a coaching strategy.  Okay...I will buy that, but isn't it up to the coaches to tell the players when to take risks?

The biggest difference last night was in the overtime. The Canadiens took 24 shots while the Rangers took only 14. The Rangers clearly were unable to shift from that defensive posture to the offense they needed to win the game. It was just a matter of time before the Canadiens scored.

Some Questions


There are definitely some questions heading into Game 3.  Will Kevin Klein replace Holden in the starting lineup?   Will Buchnevich still be watching the series?  How much will momentum play a role in this series (the Canadiens have about 90% of it now)?   Will the Rangers continue their prevent offense if they get a lead?  Can the Rangers win at home?

Answers that will lead to an early vacation?  Maybe.  Yes.  Potentially a great deal. Yes.  Maybe.   Answers that will lead to a series victory?  Yes.  Yes. None. No. Yes.

Klein did not play a stellar game when he returned from his back injury.  However, as a stay at home defenseman, he would have to be an improvement over Holden (remember his blind pass in the defensive zone in game 1 that lead to a point blank opportunity for the Canadiens?).  I see this as a possibility.

The Rangers could use Buchnevich's offensive creativity, but who comes out?  Glass deserves to play.  No one else has been bad enough to warrant a benching.  So, Pavel sits.   The daring thing would be to replace Glass and see how that works.   Don't bet on it.

Momentum is gone if the Rangers score the first goal on Sunday.  If Montreal scores first, their momentum builds until the Blueshirts tie the game.  Momentum is relevant only until you fall behind.

I have no faith in the team's ability to stop the prevent offense.  It is in their DNA...and that is not good.  Another reason to start Buchnevich.

Home ice means little in the playoffs.  It means even less to New York.

What Next?


Would anyone have been unhappy with a split in Montreal BEFORE the series started?  Of course not.   A team needs to win four out of seven games to win a series.  That means three losses are acceptable.  To win the Stanley Cup you have to win 16 games, but you also can lose 12 games.

The home crowd can be a factor in this game by simply supporting the team and not putting even more pressure  on them. The Rangers can still win this series.  They have been better then Montreal and should be up 2-0.   The Cup is ours.

Addendum


Okay, there is so much noise about the defensive assignments at the end of regulation,I decided to look at it carefully. 

2:02 Faceoff in center ice.  Staal and Holden went off and were replaced by McDonagh and Girardi.   Zibanejad won the faceoff and got the puck into the Montreal zone.    Forward line is Zibanejad, Nash and Fast. 

1:45  Canadiens gained entry into the Ranger zone.   The Rangers clear the puck.  Miller, Hayes and Grabner get on the ice. 

1:35 Canadiens entered the Rangers zone again.  Girardi and McDonagh are still on. Price leaves the net. 

1:22  McDonagh clears and he and Girardi are replaced by Holden and Staal.  Hayes line stays on. 

1:10   The Canadiens enter the Rangers zone and never leave. 

:51.2  Staal gets the puck to Grabner who fails to clear. 

:21.4  Miller blocks slapshot from the point.   Grabner gets the rebound and tries to fist it out of the  zone.  Fails.  Weber cross checks Grabner who falls to the ice and is slow to get up. 

:17.3  Canadiens crash the net and Plekanic scores.

Okay...here is the analysis.  Clearly, Vigneault wanted to get McDonagh and Girardi back on the ice for the final seconds, but for the last 1:22 there was NO opportunity.  He could have put Skjei and Smith on the ice, but he favored Staal and Holden.  That is on the coach.  

The Hayes line could have changed with 1:22 left...it would have gotten Nash, Stepan and Fast back on, but less than thirty seconds after they got to the bench.  What about Zuccarello, Kreider and Lindberg?   The Hayes line was on the ice for the last 1:28 before the goal was scored...in essence in penalty killing mode.  By the time the goal was scored, they were fried.  That is on the coach. 

Holden and Staal were stuck essentially killing a penalty for over a minute.  They were both fried by the time the goal was scored.  That is on lady luck. 

Miller had a tremendous block of a Shea Weber point shot with 21.4 seconds left.  The puck bounces to Grabner who tried to bat it out of the zone.  One foot to the right or left and the blocked shot bounces clear of the zone. That is on lady luck. 

Michael Grabner had two opportunities to clear the puck in the 30 seconds before Montreal scored and he failed both times.  That is on Grabner. 

On the goal, Miller and Hayes lost his assignments and there were three Montreal players at the top of the crease, outnumbering Staal and Holden.   That's on Miller and Hayes. 

On the goal, Holden had just broken his stick by slashing Plekanic.  With 17 seconds left, does he tackle Plekanic and risk a penalty?   If he prevents the goal and they kill the two man advantage it's a smart play.  If he prevents the goal and they subsequently score, he is vilified.  You decide who that is on. 

Could Vigneault have saved his timeout?   The last opportunity he would have had to use it would have been with over two minutes left.  No way he would (or should) have used it at that point. 

So, the blogsphere calling for Vigneault's head for his defensive assignments have an argument.  My question is why not use Smith and Skjei?   Or at the very least, why not Smith and Staal?  

Okay...enough second guessing. 




Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Waiting....

So, the series against the Montreal Canadiens is less than 24 hours away.  There are so many articles, podcasts and video clips out there....this series has been analyzed to death.  There is a little news out there.  The only definite roster decision is that Kevin Klein will sit out game 1.  It appears that Tanner Glass will dress at the expense of Pavel Buchnevich, but the coach has said that that will be a gametime decision.

There are a number of Rangers who dressed for that 1-0 victory in Game Six at MSG that sent the team to the Stanley Cup Finals still with the team. However, the roster has really changed.  Gone are Brian Boyle, Derick Brassard, Raphael Diaz, Derek Dorsett, Carl Hagelin, Dominic Moore, Benoit Pouliot, Brad Richard, Martin St. Louis, Anton Stralman and Cam Talbot.  That's 11 players. The remaining players are Dan Girardi, Kevin Klein, Chris Kreider, Henrik Lundqvist, Ryan McDonagh, Rick Nash, Marc Staal, Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello.  That's nine holdovers (eight if Klein is scratched).  The lone goal was scored by Dominic Moore.

Ranger newcomers are Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Clendening, Tanner Glass, Michael Grabner, Kevin Hayes, Nick Holden, Oscar Lindberg, J.T. Miller, Brandon Pirri, Matt Puempel, Antti Raanta, Brady Skjei, Brendan Smith, Jimmy Vesey, and Mika Zibanejad.  Jesper Fast was injured for that series.

Montreal has had even more of a roster turnover.  Only six players from that game in 2014 will dress for the Canadiens.  They are Nathan Beaulieu, Alex Galchenyuk, Brendan Gallagher, Andrei Markov, Max Pacioretty and Tomas Plekanec,

New additions to the team are Jordie Benn, Paul Byron, Philip Danault,  Dwight King, Artturi Lehkonen,  Andreas Martinsen, Torrey Mitchell, Al Montoya, Nikita Nesterov, Steve Ott, Jeff Petry, Alexander Radulov, Andrew Shaw and Shea Weber.  Carey Price is not new to the team, but was injured for the series in 2014.

So, these are two different teams playing each other.  Montreal has been playing well for new coach Claude Julien. After a mid-season dip, with the coaching change the Canadiens have been one of the better teams in the NHL.  

Both teams are very evenly matched.  They are both speedy teams with balanced scoring.  Montreal has a little more size and muscle and that may be why we will see Tanner Glass.

You can find all of the analysis you need on Blueshirt Banter, Blueline Station and NHLcom.   The final word is that the Blueshirts are the underdog. Of the 21 experts polled on NHL.com, only five thought the Rangers would prevail in this series. We shall see.


The Three Point Win


Now that the season is over, we can look at my favorite issue...the loser point and the need for the three point win.  Out of the 30 teams in the NHL this season, over half (16) went to overtime in one fourth of their games.   Detroit went to OT in 29 out of 82 games...over a third.  284 games went to overtime out of the 1,230 total games played this season.  That is 23%.  That is too much. 

If you remove overtime and shootout wins from their records there were truly awful teams in the NHL this season.  Look at these regulation win totals:

Buffalo,  Los Angeles, Philadelphia  25
Florida 23
Arizona, Vancouver 20
New Jersey 18
Detroit 17
Colorado  14

That's nine teams that didn't win one third of their games in regulation.   The embarrassing thing is that Buffalo, L.A., Philadelphia and Florida were in contention for a playoff spot into the last week of the season.  If you want to know why Los Angeles fired their coach and GM today, it's because they won only 25 out of 82 games. 

If the league award three points for a regulation win and two points for an overtime or shootout win, would the final standings this season have been affected?   Here's how the final standings would have looked:

Atlantic Div.  Record Points   Metro Div. Record Points
X-Montreal 33-14-26-9  136 X-Washington 45-10-19-8   164
X-Boston  38-6-31-7   133 X-Pittsburgh 40-10-21-11   151
X-Ottawa 34-10-28-10  132 X-Columbus 39-11-24-8   147
X-Toronto  33-7-27-15   128 X-Rangers 40-8-28-6   142
E-Tampa  32-10-30-10  126 E-Islanders 32-8-29-12   127
E-Florida   23-12-36-11  104 E-Carolina 28-8-32-14   115
E-Buffalo  25-8-37-12  101 E-Philadelphia 25-14-33-10   113
E-Detroit  17-16-36-13   96   E-New Jersey 18-10-40-14    87
           
Central Div.  Record Points Pacific Div.  Record Points
X-Chicago 37-13-23-9    146 X-Anaheim 40-6-23-13   145
X-Minnesota 42-7-25-8   148 X-San Jose 38-8-29-7   137
X-St. Louis 38-8-29-7   134 X-Edmonton 36-10-27-9   137
X-Nashville 35-6-29-12   129 X-Calgary 32-13-33-4   126
E-Winnipeg 33-7-35-7     120 E-Los Angeles 25-14-35-8   110
E-Dallas 28-6-37-11   107 E-Arizona 20-10-42-10    90
E-Colorado 14-8-56-4     65   E-Vancouver 20-11-42-9    91

So how would the standings have changed?  All of the teams making the playoffs would be the same, but there would be some differences.  Boston would finish ahead of Ottawa in the Atlantic and in the Pacific, Edmonton and San Jose would switch places. 

Of course, with an additional point at stake in tie games, the hope would be that there would have been fewer games going to overtime as teams would have "gone for it."  


Why it will never happen


It will never happen because instead of winning 17 games, Detroit won 33.   Colorado had 22 instead of only 14 wins.  New Jersey had 28 wins instead of 18.   In a league that wants parity above all (see the salary cap discussion)...it pays to keep teams in the hunt for playoff spot even though they are really winning fewer than one in every four games.  

Oh well...you've heard the rant.  

Saturday, April 8, 2017

The Last Weekend

Two more games in the regular season and while they are meaningless games to the Rangers, today's game has some significance for Ottawa. The final game on Sunday night vs. Pittsburgh has only one purpose...to get everyone in the lineup back into the locker room with no injuries.   It would be nice the Rangers to end the season on a winning note heading into the playoffs.

For Ottawa, they are still trying to clinch second place in the Atlantic Division.  Boston is one point behind with one game to play (they have clinched a playoff spot).  If Boston wins its final game against Washington, then Ottawa needs two points to clinch home ice in the first round.   The Senators play the Rangers today and the Islanders tomorrow.  The Isles could be a tough competitor if they are still in the hunt for a playoff spot (more on that later).  So...the Senators should be doing their best to win today.  The Rangers are resting Stepan, Zuccarello, Nash, Fast, Staal, McDonagh and Holden.

One thing that will make the game more interesting for Ranger fans is that we will get a chance to see Taylor Beck make his Rangers debut.  He was acquired in a minor league deal at the trade deadline from Edmonton.  He has played 90 NHL games, with 11 goals and 12 assists for the Predators, Islanders and Oilers....now he gets a shot with the Rangers.   He is a 25 year old right hand shooting right winger who has been a big scorer in the minors. This year he has 19 goals and 44 assists in 54 games.  Pretty good numbers.

As for the rest of the league...the playoff bound teams from the West are set, it's all about seeding.   In the Pacific, Anaheim can finish 1st or 2nd.  Edmonton can finish 2nd or 3rd.  San Jose can finish 2nd or 3rd. Calgary can finish as the first or second wild card.   In the Central, Chicago and Minnesota have locked down 1st and 2nd place.  St. Louis can finish 3rd or 1st wild card.  Nashville can finish 3rd or 1st or second wild card.   Insane.

In the East, there is still a battle for the final playoff spot. The bottom line is that if Toronto needs two points to make the playoffs.  Tampa has to win its last game.  The Islanders need to win both of their remaining games.  There are too many scenarios to get into...but get this...if the Maple Leafs only get one out of the remaining four points and the Isles win both of their remaining games, they are in. If Tampa also wins its last game, it doesn't matter...the Isles hold the tiebreaker.

Toronto plays the Penguins and the Blue Jackets.  The Islanders play the Devils and the Senators. Tampa's last game is against Buffalo.  As incredible as it seems...the Tavares-less Fishsticks have a real shot if all of the pieces fall into place.

The shame about all of this in the East is that the contending teams are playing teams that will be phoning it in. If these games "mattered" to all teams it is very possible that we would end up with a three-way tie in points (94) for the last wild card slot.  It would then come down to ROW and the Islanders would win that contest with 39 to 38 for Toronto and Tampa.

The irony is that these teams are vying for the privilege to play Washington in the first round.   Toronto actually can avoid the Caps if they win both of their games and Boston loses...so they have even more at stake.

Playoff schedule doesn't come out until the regular season is over.   The Kreider/Price noise is already starting to ramp up. The question is...whatever happened to Dustin Tokarski?   It's fascinating.  Peter Budaj was the backup goalie in 2014.  He came in to replace Price in the third period of game one and allowed three goals on eight shots.  He was banished to the minors and only resurfaced this season as the replacement for Jonathan Quick in Los Angeles.  He played pretty well and was dealt for Ben Bishop at the deadline.  In 60 games this season he has a GAA of 2.18 and a save percentage of .915.   Tokarski meanwhile has played in only 24 games in the NHL since those playoffs (three full seasons), spending most of his time in the AHL.  He was the "next big thing" in goal when he replaced Budaj and started the last five games of the series.  Strange bounces...

A look ahead to round one of the playoffs is coming.  Stay tuned.


Monday, April 3, 2017

We're In

So, the Rangers are definitely in the playoffs and they did it by getting points, not by other teams losing them.  Although it has been a foregone conclusion  for weeks that they would make the playoffs , I am sure that all Ranger fans had a teeny bit of angst and concern until they got that point against Pittsburgh.  The Rangers and Montreal are the only two teams who have locked in their position in the playoff seedings, so we know that they will play each other in the first round.

The win against Philadelphia accomplished two things. It ended that annoying home losing streak and knocked the Flyers out of the post-season sweepstakes.   As of today, all of the West teams are determined with only playoff seeding still at stake.  The East is a different story.

Montreal has clinched the top slot in the Atlantic Division. The next three slots are still up in the air, with six teams in the East vying for them along with the last wild card spot.   Boston, Ottawa, Toronto, Tampa, Carolina and the Islanders are all still in contention. Of those teams, Carolina is one point from elimination.  The Islanders are three points from elimination.  There are still four teams in the Atlantic Division in contention for three post-season slots.  Boston has 92 points and currently sits in second place by a point  in the Atlantic, but have only three games left.  Toronto and Ottawa both have 91 points and have five games left.    Tampa has four games left and is three points out.

I don't know who makes the schedules in the NHL, but it is crazy that Ottawa and Toronto are both playing five games in seven days to close out the season.  They don't even play each other.  It figures to be a wild last week for these teams.

The Rangers have two days off before playing in Washington on Wednesday.  One more road game in Ottawa on Saturday and they finish the season at home on Sunday against Pittsburgh.    They can still tie for the second most road wins in NHL history if they win one of the two games and will hold the record exclusively if they win both road games.

There are some other goals for players:
  • Mats Zuccarello needs two points to tie his career high.  He also already set a personal record for assists in a season. 
  • Derek Stepan who is allegedly having a bad season, is only three points from tying his career high for points in a season. If anything, this has been a typical Stepan season as he has exceeded 20 goals only once (last season).  He is also two assists from tying his career high. 
  • Ryan McDonagh has 40 points on the season and is three points from his career high.  Missing the last two games hasn't helped him in that quest. 
  • Henrik Lunqvist needs two wins in the last three games for him to tie Glenn Hall for ninth place all-time with 407.


About Brady Skjei


Brian Leetch had one of the greatest rookie seasons in the history of the NHL with 23 goals and 48 assists for 71 points.  Only Larry Murphy and Paul Coffey had better rookie season (points) and Leetch had more points as a rookie than Ray Bourque or Denis Potvin.  While Brady Skjei has not achieved those kinds of numbers, how does his breakout season compare to other Ranger rookie defensemen?

This season Brady Skjei has five goals, 34 assists and 39 points.    Only seven other Ranger rookie defensemen have exceeded 30 points in a season.  Skjei's sits in 4th place overall.  
  1. Brian Leetch               23-48-71  
  2. Reijo Ruotalainen       18-38-56
  3. Ron Greschner              8-37-45
  4. Brady Skjei                  5-34-39
  5. Michael Del Zotto        9-28-37  
  6. James Patrick               8-28-36
  7. Sergei Zubov                8-23-31  
What's remarkable about Skjei's season is that only seven points (all assists) have come on the power play. Skjei has already notched more even strength assists (27) than any other Ranger rookie including Brian Leetch who had 25 along with Ruotsalainen and Greschner.

Of the top ten scoring defensemen in the NHL this season, Brady Skjei has more even strength assists (27) than all of them except Erik Karlsson (30) and Duncan Keith (28).    He has more than Victor Hedman, Kevin Shattenkirk, Torrey Krug, Dustin Bfuglien, Brent Seabrook and Keith Yandle. 

Yandle has 5-36-41 stats, almost identical to Skjei.  On even strength his stats are 3-18-21, compared to Skjei's 5-27-32.  Pretty impressive.

As far as rookie defensemen this season, Zach Werenski has 47 points, but 21 of those points have come on the power play. In terms of non-PP points, no other rookie d-man is close to Skjei who has 32.   Werenski of Columbus has 26, Zaitsev of Toronto has 24 and Philadelphia's Provorov has 23.

You see Sergei Zubov's name on the list above.  He made the top seven list as a rookie with 31 points in 49 games.  What's amazing about Zubov was the next year,  his first full NHL season (1993-94).  In that Stanley Cup winning season, Zubov LED the team in scoring with 12 goals and 77 assists for 89 points.  The only Ranger to have more assists in a season was Brian Leetch with 80 in 1991-92.   We can only hope that Skjei has the same career path as Zubov (but let's hope the Rangers don't trade him away the way they did Zubov).