Breaking News
In case you haven't heard, Henrik Lundqvist's lower body injury will keep him out of action for 2-3 weeks. The team has called up Magnus Hellberg to back up Antti Raanta. The chief concern is if the injury keeps him out any longer. A return in three weeks will give the King four games to tune up for the playoffs. It's a concern.
Back to the Playoffs....
So, the Rangers lose two home games to two of the best teams in the NHL and the sky is falling. Agreed, those two losses were awful and demoralizing, but considering the competition and how well the Blueshirts had been playing, they were due. It really did point out (as elaborated on in my last post) that the playoff path through the Metropolitan Division is something the Rangers should try to avoid.
Beating Tampa and Florida put the team on the right track (and they really SHOULD have beaten Carolina...more on that below). We can pay attention again to the playoff picture.
First, let's get this perfectly clear. Unless the Rangers go into an awful tailspin (REALLY awful), they will definitely make the playoffs. They have 88 points with only 14 games to go, so it is almost mathematically impossible for the Rangers to lose out. Let's look at some scenarios (as of 6pm Saturday).
1) Current Pace - If the Rangers maintain their current pace, they would finish 52-27-3 (107 points). No team in the East could pass the Rangers in the standings. The Islanders would have to go undefeated the rest of the season to tie the Blueshirts.
2) .500 hockey - If the Rangers play .500 hockey the rest of the season - They would finish 50-30-2 (102 points) To finish with 103 points here's what the contenders in the East would have to do. Toronto would need to finish 14-1-1 (29 points). Tampa would have to go undefeated the rest of the season. No other teams could catch the Blueshirts.
3) Disastrous finish - If the wheels come off and the Rangers only win 5 out of their last 14 games they would finish 48-32-2 (98 points). Toronto would need to go 12-3-1. Tampa would need to go 14-2. Philadelphia would need to finish 14-1-1 and Florida would need to go 15-1.
4) The Unthinkable - If the Rangers lose ALL of their remaining games they would finish 43-37-2 (88 points). Every team below them in the standings would be able to catch them but here's how they would have to finish:
Toronto 7-8-1
Tampa 9-7
Florida 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
Buffalo 11-2-1
Carolina 12-5-1
Detroit 13-3
New Jersey 13-1-1
So, Ranger fans should rest assured that the playoffs are a certainty. The only question is who should our heroes be gearing up to play. Having discussed how the Rangers have played against Columbus, Washington and Pittsburgh, it is worth taking a look at the Atlantic Division opponents in play.
For weeks it has been assumed that
if when the Rangers finish in the #1 wild card spot they will play the Montreal Canadiens. That is not necessarily so. As of tonight, Ottawa is only two points behind Montreal and they have two games in hand. Even Boston is still there, trailing Montreal by eight points, with a game in hand. It is pretty doubtful that the Bruins will catch the Habs, but it is 50-50 between Montreal and Ottawa as to who will finish in first place in the Atlantic Division and face New York in round one.
Montreal
The Canadiens are a known factor, still smarting from missing the playoffs last year and from their second round ouster by Tampa the year before (after finishing first in the Atlantic Division). They have even more incentive to win by avenging their loss to the Rangers in 2014 in the Conference Finals. No matter how well Dustin Tokarski played, he is no Carey Price and Chris Kreider will be a marked man if the Blueshirts play the Habs. Knowing the NHL, if he comes within an inch of Price he will be penalized for interference. Ranger fans should not delude themselves...Price's injury was the biggest factor in the Rangers success in that series...and if the two teams meet this year, he will be as big a factor (ask J.T. Miller).
The Rangers have played 15 playoff series against Montreal, winning eight of them. The last series was the Conference Finals in 2014. The Rangers are the only Original Six team that has a better than .500 playoff series record vs. Montreal. Boston has lost 27 of 35 series to the Habs. Ouch.
The Habs are averaging 2.69 goals per game (middle of the pack), but they are a top defensive team, allowing 2.49 goals per game (6th place). There are no former Rangers on the Canadiens. At the deadline, Montreal bulked up a bit, adding Steve Ott and Dwight King as well as defenseman Jordie Benn. The only Ranger with Montreal roots is former draftee Ryan McDonagh.
The Rangers played Montreal three times and had no wins to show for it, with two regulation losses and one shootout loss. That said, the record against Montreal could easily have been 2-1.
January 14 - Montreal 5, Rangers 4
In their first meeting Antti Raanta started in goal, but had to leave the game with a "lower body" injury. He was replaced by Henrik Lundqvist who showed why he cannot be a backup goalie, allowing five goals on 22 shots, including three goals in 1:02 in the third period. This was one of the three games the Rangers have blown in the third period this season. Before this season, the Rangers had gone into the third period with the lead 192 times since 2010 and had blown that lead in regulation only three times. They've equalled that number in only 26 games they held the lead.
Except for that one minute span in the third period, the Rangers were dominant (as they have been on the road all season). They pulled within a goal with five minutes left in the game, but couldn't knot the score. Overall, it was an encouraging outing highlighted by the four goals the Rangers were able to score against the indomitable Price.
February 21 - Montreal 3, Rangers 2 (Shootout)
This was another game the Rangers could have won. In fact, it was Carey Price's spectacular diving save off J.T. Miller with only 3.7 seconds left in overtime that kept it from being a win for New York. The Rangers rallied twice to tie the game with Rick Nash's breakaway goal in the third period sending the game to OT. The Canadiens second goal was notable as it was a Shea Weber bomb from the point on the powerplay that Lundqvist just waved at. That goal came after a defensive zone faceoff loss...as the Rangers only won 47% of the draws...an issue that still plagues them. This was Claude Julien's first win as coach of Montreal.
March 4 - Montreal 4, Rangers 1
Ugh. The Canadiens won their 6th straight game as they thoroughly trounced the Rangers just one week ago. Hank was just okay in net and the Blueshirts were never in the game. The less said about this one the better. It ended a string of pretty awful games that included embarassing losses to Columbus, Washington and a game the Rangers stole in Boston. Of course, the cure was to go on the road and they won in Tampa and Florida.
Ottawa
The Rangers have split their two games with Ottawa this season with the rubber match on April 8th in their last road game of the regular season. Under new coach Guy Boucher, the Senators are playing a much more conservative style and after allowing 247 goals against last season and missing the playoffs, they are on target to allow only 212 for 2.58 GPP (fewer than the Rangers at 2.60). Their offense has suffered. Last season, missing the post season, they averaged 2.87 goals per game and this season they are averaging 2.64 (compared to the Rangers 3.18).
There is some history between New York and Ottawa. First off, there is Derick Brassard who consistently raised his game in the playoffs. (18 goals and 44 points in 59 playoff games). Tom Pyatt plays for Ottawa and he was a Ranger draft choice who went to Montrreal in the Ryan McDonagh/Scott Gomez deal. Finally, the Sens added Viktor Stalberg at the deadline and he played very effectively against the Blueshirts with Carolina. Speaking of deadline deals, the Senators also added Alex Burrows from Vancouver at the deadline for scoring and grit. On the Ranger side, both Mika Zibanejad and Matt Puempel are former Senators who have something to prove.
The Rangers have played Ottawa only once in the playoffs, winning a seven game conference quarterfinal series in 2012.
November 27 - Ottawa 2, Rangers 0
Ottawa won their fourth straight game as the Rangers were stoned by Craig Anderson in one of those lousy Madison Square Garden losses. Antti Raanta was in net for the Rangers, who couldn't muster any kind of attack. The highlight of the game was the tribute to Derick Brassard. Mika Zibanejad and Matt Puempel and Brassard were all kept off the scoring sheets in this one. All in all, a pretty forgettable loss.
December 27 - Rangers 4, Ottawa 3
The Rangers won at the Garden to end their first regulation two game losing streak of the season. Nick Holden and Derek Stepan both scored two goals as they came back from two two-goal deficits to win the game. The teams began the third period tied 3-3, with the only remaining goal scored by Holden just seconds after a Ranger power play ended. Antti Raanta was again in nets for New York and had a strong game.
Pick Your Poison
So...Ottawa or Montreal? The Canadiens have a lot to prove and will be under immense pressure to win. Their playoff "window" is similar to the Rangers with Shea Weber getting older and Ottawa may just be glad to reach the playoffs. Does it really matter?
Random Thoughts
* The non-interference call on Thursday in Carolina was a joke. There's a simple solution...all goals should be reviewed in Toronto. Most are clean and would require minimal time, but a team of professionals who spend ALL of their time looking at 60 inch monitors for rules violations has got to be better than a refereee looking at a six inch screen after vehemently making the call that the goal was legit. It's ridiculous.
* Same goes for Off-Sides challenges. It is laugable that the linesman are studying a six inch screen in a loud arena when there is a video room in Toronto that can do the same thing more efficiently. Also, on off-sides they should put a time limit on how much time has passed between the off-side and the goal and a challenge is allowed. Another rule change should be that the blue line should be INCLUDED in the offensive zone. It is common sense that the lead skate will be ON the ice as opposed to the trailing skate slightly elevated. The image of skaters dragging their back foot across the line is ridiculous and is becoming more and more prevalent. If the league wants to improve offense, just do it. The calls would be easier to make, the games would be faster and there would be fewer challenges. It makes sense.
* Larry Brooks of the Post stole Rich Trueman's line about Derek Stepan not scoring a goal since the Obama administration. Rich has been a participant in this blog for years and he first said that a week before Brooks wrote it.
* If you want to laugh, go to Blueshirt Banter and read the in-game message board from the night the Rangers beat Florida. All of the Tanner Glass/Alain Vigneault haters have been on a rampage over his call up...and when Glass scored they went absolutely nuts. The advanced stats freaks have been curiously quiet about Glass, whose Corsi % has been one of the best in the team in the games in Florida and Carolina. While I agree that statistically, Tanner Glass is one of the worst players in the league, he brings intangibles into play and I have no way of quantifying his impact in that area. The players really like him and he brings a physical aspect to the team that they have been lacking.
* Magnus Hellberg is leading the league with a 1.000 save percentage and a 0.00 goals against average. Then again, he has only appeared in one game and faced four shots.
* I think we should fund a program to educate fans about the proper way to do the Zuuuuuc chant, especially for out of towners. While it is great fun to hear him getting the salute at arenas all over the NHL, when they do it every time he touches the puck, it gets tiring (especially when they are losing). We may want to throw in a line about the "Potvin Sucks" chant and try to get folks to only do it maybe three times a game.
* Did anyone see the last episode of "Homeland" that included a scene at Barclays during an Islander game? It looks like they shot the scene during an actual game. To be totally snarky, I would have to point out that they could do it because the arena isn't sold out.
* It amazes me that Stephane Matteau gets so much love at MSG. Beside two huge overtime goals in 1994, he played all of 117 regular season and playoff games for the Rangers, scoring 17 goals and 14 assists. 287 other players scored more than eleven regular season goals, the total that Matteau notched in his 85 games as a Ranger. 343 players played in more games than Matteau. Timing, just timing.
* Nick Holden is having a pretty special offensive year. He has achieved career highs with ten goals , 20 assists and 30 points and has more points at even strength than Kevin Shattenkirk. Keith Yandle has all of three goals and 30 assists for Florida, if you are looking to compare.
* Even more special is the play of Brady Skjei at even strength. He is fourth in the league in even strength assists (25) ahead of such offensive luminaries as Dougie Hamilton, Victor Hedman and Shattenkirk. It's amazing that the rookie is only three assists behind Brent Burns and two behind Erik Karlsson and Duncan Keith. Is it time for Skjei to be seeing more power play time?
Two more games before the next ten-game sequence analysis. Considering the Rangers position, their many injuries and where we are in the season, all efforts should be geared toward playoff preparation, more than wins or losses. Till next time.