Happy New Year (And Can the Devils Keep This Up?)

Happy New Year to all of you Ranger fans and also to the unenlightened.  The team ended 2017 on a sour note with a shootout loss to the Detroit Red Wings. How long will it take for the "should Pavelec replace Lundquist" speculation to begin?  The King made some spectacular saves, but he did let in his SGOTG (Soft Goal Of The Game) to Athanasiou in the first period. 

On a positive note, the team finished December with a record of 7-3-3, getting points in ten of 13 games.  They ares still playing .500 hockey on the road and need to improve on that.  By killing five Detroit power plays, they now have the third best penalty kill in the league and best in the East.  Also positive was the play of Vinni Lettieri who scored a goal in his NHL debut and actually got 3:07 on the power play (but why not Michael Grabner?).   Ondrej Pavelec was fabulous in his shutout win against the Capitals on national television. 

On the downside, the Chris Kreider blood clot issue is very troubling and could lead to a longterm absence.  Jesper Fast will still be missing a few games.   Lundqvist continues to let in one soft goal per game and has only won one of four shootouts.  Those points will be sorely missed in April. 

It looks like 2018 will be a wild ride.  Believe it or not, sitting one point out of first place in the Metropolitan Division as of today are the New Jersey Devils.  Everyone is waxing poetic about the speed of the team and the excellent work done building the team (yeah...winning the first overall pick in a lottery is outstanding work), but can they keep it up?

The Devils are in second with a record of 22-10-6 for 50 points.  How have they done it?  They have feasted on weaker teams while barely playing .500 versus top teams and they have played a slightly "soft" schedule.  So far, they have played teams who are in the playoffs (as of today) 17 times.  Their record is 8-7-2 and they needed to win three of those game in overtime or with a shootout.  That's eight regulation wins in 17 games.   Meanwhile, 21 games against the non-playoff teams, they are 14-3-4.   So, they have gotten 53% of the points available against the top teams and 76% against the bad teams.

The Devils have 24 games remaining against playoff teams and 20 vs. non-playoff teams. If these percentages hold, they will finish with 55 points the rest of the season.  That means that they finish with a total of 105 points, well above the 95 point threshold for making the playoffs in the East.

How does that compare to the Rangers?

The Rangers have a record of 20-13-5 for 45 points.  They have gotten comparable results with 42% of points vs. playoff teams and 71% of points vs. non-playoff teams.  The Rangers have 21 games remaining vs. playoff and 23 vs. non-playoff teams. If they remain true to form, they will finish with 51 more points out of 88 for a season total of 96....dangerously close to the 95 point "make the playoff" threshold.

The Metropolitan Division is still looking to be a dogfight.  No team in the Division can be considered out of the playoff picture with only ten points separating Washington in first place and Philadelphia in 8th place.  Scarier still is only five points separate the Rangers in the first wild card spot and Philadelphia. Carolina has played the fewest game and is one of the hottest teams in the league. The Penguins are in a mini-slump.  It doesn't take much to drop into the also-ran category.  A scarier scenario is that Florida continues it strong play and makes a move for the second wild card spot.  They currently sit with 39 points...only five behind the Islanders.

A huge issue for the Rangers is their power play.  Even with the return of Mika Zebanejad, it has not clicked going 0-15 in the last 5 games. Two of those games were shootout losses and a third was a one goal loss to Toronto.   Three timely PP goals in those games could have meant three additional points in the standings.  Three more points would have given the Rangers 48 points meaning 3rd place in the Division and a comfortable cushion of six points from being out of a playoff position.  Now, without Kreider in front of the net, it will be even tougher to score on the PP. 

Finally, can anyone determine what the heck is going on with Rich Nash?  He has been the most dominant offensive force on the team for weeks and has little to show for it.  Is he just snakebit or has he lost his ability to find the back of the net? It's very frustrating (even more so for him) and the team needs him on a hot streak more than ever.  It's like he is on a hot streak without scoring. 

Monday's high is predicted to be 19 degrees and sunny.  The Winter Classic should be a doozy and if anyone is going...dress warmly.  I will be watching on delay from Phuket, Thailand where it will be 85 degrees and gametime is 1am. Remember, the Rangers are undefeated (3-0) in outdoor regulr season games.  This will be the fifth outdoor game for the Blueshirts, the most in the league.  They lost an outdoor exhibition game to Los Angeles in 1991, a game that was played in Las Vegas. That game was played in September and the temperature was 85 degrees. 

Happy New Year to all!

Stats Pack

Here are some statistics about the New York Rangers:

Standings

• They are third in points in the Metropolitan Division (41) and 5th in the Eastern Conference.  They are also four points out of first place in the Division and nine points behind Tampa for top spot in the East. They have a game in hand on Met Division top team Washington.
• They are second in the Met with 18 ROW and 4th in the Conference. 
• They are first in goal differential (+11) in the Met Division and third in the East.
• They have the most home points (31)  and wins (14) in the East, but they have also played the most home games.  They are averaging 1.5 points per home game, just behind Tampa and Washington. 
• Their ten road points is the fewest in the East, but again, they have played the fewest road games in the Conference. They are averaging 0.8 points per road game.  Only Buffalo is averaging fewer and they are tied with Pittsburgh, Florida and Ottawa.  

Scoring

• The Rangers are 6th overall in the NHL in scoring with 111 goals, 4th in the East.   They are averaging 3.26 goals per game, good for 7th overall and 4th in the East.
• Their +15 goal differential is the best in the Metropolitan Division. 
• The team is in tenth place overall defensively allowing 2.79 goals per game.  That's good for 5th place in the East.
• The Blueshirts are fifth in the NHL in 5v5 goals with 71.  
• The Rangers have scored 45 third period goals, tied for best in the East.   The team definitely improves through games.  Scoring by period is 27-25-45. 
• Scoring against the Rangers by period is pretty evenly split at 31-30-33.  
• The Rangers lead the league in empty net goals with 10, led by Michael Grabner's six, most in the league by far. 
• The Rangers need to score first.  When they do, they win 81% of the time.  They only win one third of the games when the opposition scores first. Of the top Metropolitan Division teams, only the Islanders have allowed the opposition to score first (22 times) more than the Rangers (18 times).  

Special Teams

• They have the ninth best power play in the league at 20.9%.  That's good for 6th best in the East and it should improve with the return of Mika Zibanejad. 
• Believe it or not, the Rangers have improved to the best penalty kill in the East at 83.5%, fourth best in the NHL.  They've killed 21 of 23 penalties in December, a 91% rate. 
• While winning faceoffs at over 50% all season, that number has dropped to 49.3%. 21st in the NHL.  That's another statistic that should improve with the return of Zibanejad. 
• When it comes to drawing penalties, the Rangers are exactly in the middle of the league with 110.   Seven of the top teams in the NHL are from the West, if that means anything.  Drawing penalties doesn't correspond to wins as only three out of the best ten teams in the league are in the top ten in gaining the man advantage.  
• I would argue that the Rangers should be drawing more penalties, especially with their power play.  They are doing a good job in staying out of the box, averaging only 7:52 minutes per game in penalties, 7th fewest in the league. 
• The team (post-Tanner Glass) is also behaving with only four major penalties and one game misconduct this season.  That's close to the fewest in the league. 
• Only Arizona and New York have failed to score a shorthanded goal this season.  Four teams have six. 
• Pittsburgh is the only team that has not given up a shorthanded goal while the Rangers have allowed only one.   That's much better than the Islanders who have given up eight. 
• The Rangers have spend 2:09 with a two-man advantage and have yet to score. 

Miscellaneous 

• A lot has been made of the fact that the Rangers are adept at protecting leads.  This season they have won all 13 games they have led after two periods.   St. Louis has been the best this season with 18 wins after leading for two periods and 16 teams other than the Rangers have not blown a third period lead by losing in regulation. 
• Perhaps more significant is that the Rangers are 7th best in the league at winning a game when trailing going into the third period.  They also escape with at least a point in 35% of the games they trail going into the third period. Only the Devils have a better percentage (42%),   
• That flawless record is reminiscent of a truly amazing run for the team when they were almost guaranteed to win a game they led.  In four seasons from October 2010 to April 2015, the Rangers went into the third period with a lead 139 times.  They lost only one of those games in regulation.  That's a 99% winning percentage. They lost six of those games in overtime or a shootout, meaning that they got at least one point in 95% of those games.  Amazing. 
• That spectacular record makes it all the more depressing that in the 2014 Stanley Cup Finals, the Rangers went into the third period three times with the lead against Los Angeles and only came out with one win, losing the other two games in double overtime. 

Conclusions

This is a sneaky New York Ranger team.  They've recovered from an awful start to climb to the top third of the Eastern Conference.   They are as deep as any team in the league and they have withstood injuries to some top players. Their much maligned defense has solidified and this has been a comeback year for Henrik Lundqvist.  There is much to be optimistic about and the rest of the season should be quite a ride.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ADD:

Columbus beat Toronto and leapfrogged back into third place in the Metropolitan Division, leaving the Rangers as the first wild card team.  Don' t look now, but it appears that the Stanley Cup hangover has hit the Pittsburgh Penguins.  They are now tied for 6th place in the Metropolitan Division with the Philadelphia Flyers who have a game in hand.  Carolina is only two points behind Pittsburgh with two games in hand.

Also, watch the first episode of "Road to the Winter Classic" on NBCS or the NHL Network if you want to see  where Rick Nash lives and how he plays with his kids or if you want to meet Kevin Shattenkirk's dogs.  Seriously, there is some decent behind the scenes action in the Ranger lockerroom and some good on-ice/bench audio.  

Pacific Overtures

The Rangers played one of their most complete games of 2017-18 on  Tuesday night versus Anaheim at Madison Square Garden.  With 41 points and 18 ROW they moved into third place in the Metropolitan Division, ahead of Columbus.  They are four points out of first place and Thursday's tilt in Newark looms large as a battle for second place.

The win against the Ducks continued one of the most remarkable streaks that the Rangers have, their dominance of the Pacific Division.  Here's what they have done.

Season	W	L	OTL	SOL	Games	Points out of Possible Points
2017-18	6	1	0	0	7	12 of 14
2016-17	11	2	1	0	14	23 of 28
2015-16	8	3	3	0	14	19 of 28
2014-15	11	2	0	1	14	23 of 28

Amazingly, since the 2014-15 season the team has gone 36-8-5 against the Pacific Division notching 77 out of a possible 98 points.    Their pace this season is even better though they have yet to play a road game against the Pacific.  Home dominance is not unusual.  In three out of the last four years the Blueshirts have won six of seven home games against that Division.  

Their road record has been pretty solid as well.  Last season they were a perfect 7-0 on the west coast, 2-3-2 the season before and 5-1-1 in 2014-15.  

And the success has carried over the their play with the Central Division.  In the last three years, the Rangers have gone 25-13-4 versus the Central. Not as good as their Pacific Division record, but pretty damned good.  This season they have gotten off to a rockier start at 1-3-1.   That means that since the 2014-15 season they have a record of 62-24-10 against the West.  That's 144 out of a possible 192 points. 

So, why the success?   Your guess is as good as mine. Is the West a weaker conference?  Arguably yes, because two of the worst teams in the league reside in Colorado and Arizona. But are they really worse than Buffalo and last season's Devils?   

I suppose the only thing that Ranger fans can wish for is continued success in the next six road Western road games.  

Okay, okay...I know it is hard to get excited about Western dominance when we think back to June of 2014 when the Rangers had the glorious opportunity to win against the West and went 1-4.   Maybe that's why the team has played so well on the West Coast.

Who IS Paul Carey?

The newest Ranger scoring machine, Paul Carey, notched two goals against Anaheim.  It was his first two goal game in in the NHL and his four goals this season quadrupled his career total.  A little noticed signing in the off season, he was expected to be depth in Hartford, but has found a home on the fourth line.  In 32 NHL games over the prior four season he scored one goal and notched one assist.  In other words, he didn't set the world on fire.  He's a graduate of Boston College (like Kreider and Hayes) who was drafted by Colorado.  He then signed as a free agent with the Capitals who let him go this off-season.  He had a breakthrough season last year in the AHL, averaging a point a game with 24 goals in 55 games.  This season, besides his knack for scoring key goals, he has been a solid defensive forward with offensive ability who has meshed with Jesper Fast and Boo Nieves and for one night at least, with David Desharnais.  At any rate, it looks like a savvy signing by Jeff Gorton.  

Speaking of obscure minor leaguers, has anyone noticed who is leading the New Jersey Devils in scoring this season with twelve goals in 33 games?  That's after scoring five goals in 66 NHL games before this season.  The mystery man is Brian Gibbons and the parallels with Paul Carey are interesting.  He was also a Boston College  graduate who has bounced around the minors.  He had cups of coffee with Columbus and Pittsburgh before landing in New Jersey as a free agent.  Oh yes, he was also a a little noticed signing by the New York Rangers in summer of 2015.  He played one season as a depth forward in Hartford before signing with New Jersey and  he spent a year in Albany, before finding success this season. 

Sometimes it takes a few years to figure it out, let's hope it is the same for Paul Carey. 

The Third Ten Games

Thirty games into the season, the Rangers just concluded their most successful ten game sequence.  The prediction here was ten or twelve points with an outside shot at 14.  They exceeded expectations and finished with 15 points.  Ranger fans should be very encouraged by the play of the team, however there are some big time "buts" if you look at their record. 

The biggest issue is that they are playing in the Metropolitan Division.  There is little doubt that, like last year, five teams from the Met will make the playoffs with only three from the Atlantic.  The  problem is that this year there are SIX quality teams in the Met Division including the Rangers.  Even with one of the best records in the league since Halloween, the team is still on the cusp of the playoff bubble.  If the season ended today the Rangers are in the playoffs .  They have the same number of points as the Penguins (35), but they get the playoff nod as they hold two games in hand.  

The second big "but" is the fact that the Rangers have played twenty games at home and only ten on the road.  That is the most lopsided total in the NHL, by far. After the Dallas game, the Rangers have 21 more games at Madison Square Garden and 31 on the road. Yikes.  They should be grateful that the January 1 Winter Classic game against Buffalo is on the schedule as a road game, but will be played in New York at Citifield.   The bottom line is that the team will need to win a lot of their road games the rest of the season.  More on that later.

The Ten Games

Although they finished 7-2-1 with 15 points, they easily could have finished with with 17.   The sequence started with a solid 3-0 shutout vs. Ottawa.  They followed that with a dominant road game in Carolina 6-1.  Game three was an overtime win 2-1 vs. Detroit.  After Chris Kreider tied the score midway through the third period,  it was Mats Zuccarello's overtime winner on a brilliant rush and feed by Brady Skjei.  They won the next game vs. Vancouver in a shootout after coming back from 2-0 deficit.  It was a seesaw game  with Jimmy Vesey the hero with the tying goal and the shootout winner.  Game five could have been one of the feel good wins of the year, but after coming back from a 3-0 deficit, the Rangers let the Panthers win the game in the last minute and gave away a badly needed point.  The 5-1 win against Carolina was deceiving, with the game a one goal nailbiter until the last few minutes.  The next game was the 4-3 win in Pittsburgh that they had no business winning. Another comeback in the next game in Washington went for naught when they let the Caps score two late third period goals.  They followed that with a dominant performance over New Jersey and followed that by a horrible effort that resulted in a shootout loss to Dallas. 

So, they dominated three games, stole one win and stole one shootout point.   They gave away at least two points in a couple games and won three close ones.  Let's look at the positives. 

They really didn't have a stinker in the entire ten game stretch, though their effort against Dallas sort of qualifies .  That's a positive.  Also on the positive side is that they did this without Mika Zibanejad for five games (and counting)  and also were without Ryan McDonagh for four games.    Boo Nieves has established himself as a solid fourth line center and the balanced scoring continues. They now have fourteen players with ten or more points, the most in the league. 

Another positive step is that Ondrej Pavelic started two of the ten games and was 1-0-1 with a GAA of 1.60 and a save percentage of .955 in the two games. If that is the real Ondrej Pavelec, the questions about the Ranger back up goalkeeping will be answered.  There has been a lot of criticism of Pavelec's 3.04 GAA and .914 save percentage....it's important to note that  in his five starts, his GAA is 2.87 and his save percentage is .922.   That compares well to Henrik Lundqvist's 2.69 GAA and .916 save percentage.  

They've also been winning with  anemic scoring from the defense.  Ranger defensemen have scored nine goals this season with five from Kevin Shattenkirk. Only four teams in the NHL have had their defense score fewer than five goals.  Believe it or not,  in thirty games the Buffalo Sabres defense has scored ONE goal.  The other teams with fewer than nine goals are Detroit (5),  Vancouver (6) and Carolina (8).  What do these teams have in common?  They are all not in the post-season.  Despite their balanced scoring, the defense needs to step up. Ryan McDonagh leads all NHL defensemen with the most assists (15) without scoring a goal. 

Conclusions

For all of their faults, the New York Rangers are one of the better teams in the NHL. Although they are tied for fifth place in the Metropolitan Division, they would be third in the Atlantic and Pacific Divisions and in fourth place in the Central Division.,  They are doing this without the benefit of a schedule heavier with games against this year's bottom feeders (Arizona, Buffalo, Edmonton and Ottawa). The team has shown a remarkable ability to come back from deficits (though their habit of allowing early goals is incredibly disturbing).  The team is deep and has withstood injuries to key players.  The bottom line is in the Metropolitan Division, every game matters. 

The Next Ten Games

The next ten games are split home and away with five of each.  They open on the road against a reeling Ottawa Senators team. They then play a tough six game stretch against playoff contenders.  Friday night features a home game against the Los Angeles Kings, currently riding an eight game winning streak.  They have a short turnaround with an afternoon game in Boston (only the third time they play back to back games this season).  They play Anaheim at home and then have a game in Newark.  That stretch ends with two home games against Toronto and Washington. They conclude 2017 in Detroit before coming back to New York for a "road" game against Buffalo on New Years Day.  The last game in the ten game sequence is a home game against Chicago.  Thanks to the holidays they play the ten games in 22 days, a manageable schedule. 

Let's be optimistic and predict fourteen points out of twenty.   There's no reason to believe that the team is headed for any kind of collapse and they have shown an uncanny knack to contend for points in games that seem lost.  The Dallas game is a perfect example.  The Rangers were outshot 33-10 over the first two periods. Dallas had 90 shot attempts in the game to the Rangers' 45.   According to the Corsica stat website, the expected goal total for the Stars was 4.31.  They scored once.  The Rangers keep this up, they will keep winning games even when they play badly.  And when they play like they should, then you can look at the Devils game where everything worked and they handled this year's miracle team handily.

No matter what, it is going to be a wild ride.  Let's see what the Blueshirts have up their sleeves. 

Home vs. Road

I've made a lot of noise about the home vs. road schedule.  The great news is that the Rangers are finally winning at home.  Don't forget that last season the Blueshirts were only one game over .500 at home (21-16-4).   They balanced that out with the league's best road record (27-10-2).  Since 2013-14 the Ranger have had one of the best road records in the NHL.  This season they are 4-6, they haven't been under .500 on the road in a full season since 2008-09.  

So, what do they need to do?  Last season it was 95 points needed to make the playoffs.  Due to the competition in the Met Division, let's say that the threshold is 100 point.  Here goes.

The Rangers have 35 points in 30 games.  Therefore, they need 65 points in the remaining 52 games.  Their point percentage so far this season is 58% (35 of 60) and they need to increase that to 61% (100/164).    Here's where the home/road record gets important.  This season the team has notched 70% of the available home points, but only 40% of the road points.   Lets say that they continue that pace of play at home.  They will finish with 31 more home points for a total of 59 points.  That means that they will need 41 total road points to get to 100. With eight road points so far, that means they will need 33 points in the remaining 32 road games.  That's a 52% point percentage, certainly do-able. 

Okay, is your head spinning?  Mine is.  To put it simply, if the Rangers can maintain pace of winning games at home, they need to be slightly over .500  on the road to get to the magic number.  They've done it in the past and they can do it again.   But they need to take care of business at home which they did not do versus Dallas.  The upcoming home games against Los Angeles, Anaheim, Toronto and Washington will tell us an awful lot about this New York Rangers team. 

Some Ranger News

As the Rangers gear up for their first December game after a very successful November, the team is making some news.

Mika Concussion

Yes, Mika Zibanejad has a concussion.  He apparently sustained it in the third period of the Detroit game on a hit by Darren Helm.  He was cleared to continue to play, but apparently had some delayed effects that resulted in his scratch from the Panthers game on Sunday although he skated in warmups.  The scary part is that there is no way of knowing when Mika will be ready to play again.  The good news is that this is his first concussion (as far as we know).  Although David Desharnais stepped up with three assists replacing him on the first line, his loss was felt on the power play and if this continues long term, the team will be hard pressed to replace his team-leading 22 points. Stay tuned. 

McDonagh Back?

On a good note, Ryan McDonagh will reportedly be back in action tonight after missing four games with an abdominal strain.  If he isn't 100% at game time, I would hope that they sit him out since they don't play again until Tuesday night in Pittsburgh.   

A Trade

The Rangers made a trade yesterday, sending recently acquired Adam Cracknell to the Montreal Canadiens for Peter Holland, a center who can play both wings.  Cracknell was a waiver claim from Dallas and didn't pan out.  The 32 year old played  four games with no points.  He was sent to Hartford where he had two goals in 15 games.  Good riddance. 

Peter Holland has a much better upside. First, he is 26 years old and has had some success in the NHL.  As mentioned, he can play all three forward positions, but is a natural center.   A former first round draft pick of the Anaheim Ducks, he has bounced around quite a bit.  He's big at 6'2", 205 lbs.   A washout in Anaheim, he has seen his value decline.   In 2013 he was dealt to Toronto where he played parts of three seasons with the Maple Leafs.  Always a minus player on a bad team, he had point totals of 25 and 27, scoring as many as 11 goals in 2015 as a fourth line center.  He was traded to Arizona where he had 5 goals in 40 games.  He was signed as a free agent by Montreal and has played the entire season in the AHL where he is averaging about a point a game.  His cap hit is the same as Cracknell's.   Here is what one website had to say about Holland when he was signed by Montreal:

"He’s got decent puck skills, and at least at the AHL level has shown good scoring ability, even if it hasn’t fully translated to the NHL level. He’s not likely going to be a gamebreaker for the Habs’ fourth line, but can chip in the odd goal which is a bonus for a line taking primarily defensive minutes."

Thanksgiving for November

The Rangers had a very successful month of November, going 9-3.   While the 18 points was not as good as the 21 points the team notched last season,   The Rangers has been very good in November since the lockout:

2017-18     9-3-0

2016-17     9-4-1

2015-16    10-4-0

2014-15     6-4-4

2013-14     9-6-0

The big difference is the number of games played with the 12 games this November the fewest in the last five years.  They also played the highest percentage (58%) of November games at home compared to the last five seasons.  Let's not get into the lost point on  Tuesday night, except to say that Brendan Smith and Nick Holden both has glorious opportunities to clear the defensive zone before the winning goal was scored.  Ugh.

The Rangers continue to be an offensive powerhouse while a bit on the porous side defensively. Their 3.24 goals per game is good for 7th in the NHL.  Their power play is 10th in the league at 21.4%.  They've moved into plus territory at +5 and their 81 goals are the sixth most scored by any team.  Their winning faceoff percentage is still north of 50%.  

Their depth continues to be their strength with 12 players at ten points or more and eight players with five goals or more.  Only the Toronto Maple Leafs have more players with ten points or more (13).  The Rangers have the most five goal scorers along with the Islanders and Vegas.  Imagine, best in the league in that category and second best in the number of ten point scorers.  

The good news is that the team is in a decent position when losing someone like Zibanejad.  Compare that to Washington where Alexander Ovetchkin has scored 24% of the team's 74 goals.  If Ovetchkin gets hurt, the Capitals are dead.  

Okay, before I get accused of being too optimistic about the Blueshirts, let's look at the defense. Only nine teams have allowed more goals than New York and their GAA is tied for 11th worst.  The penalty kill is firmly embedded in the middle of the league at 15th place (80.5%).  

The other warning sign is the schedule.  The Rangers have had a very generous schedule that has allowed Henrik Lundqvist to start 13 games in a row with at least two more to come.  When the schedule gets tighter we will be seeing more of Ondrej Pavlec and the jury is out on him.  So far, he hasn't been very impressive with a 1-4 record, 3.56 GAA and .889 save percentage.  Those are ugly numbers.  He hasn't been very lucky when relieving Lundqvist as two of his four losses came when the Rangers scored enough to erase the early deficit, but ultimately lost on goals allowed by Pavelec.  The latest was Tuesday night against the Panthers.  

While the Rangers 25 games played ranks in the middle of the NHL, no team is even close to the 17 games that the Blueshirts have played at MSG.  The Rangers will need to be the same successful road team.  After tonight, the Rangers will have only 42% of their remaining games at home.  That could be big trouble. 

Finally

Yesterday, the Vancouver Canucks announced that Derek Dorsett has to retire due to a chronic spinal issue.  It's ironic that he was off to the best start of his career with seven goals in 20 games.  Dorsett came to the Rangers in the Marian Gaborik trade with Columbus, along with Derick Brassard and John Moore.  This trade was is believed to be the first that involved two players with the same first name spelled differently.  Dorsett played one full season in New York as a fourth line player on the team that went to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2014.   While his scoring was not substantial (4-4-8), he did play a physical game and was the last Ranger to total more than 100 penalty minutes in a season (128).   

He was traded to Vancouver after that season for a third round pick (Keegan Iverson...who?) in what was a salary cap move that didn't and still doesn't make much sense. To replace him, the Rangers signed Tanner Glass (at a savings of $200k).  And THAT made even less sense.  In the two full years of Glassdom...Tanner was outscored by Dorsett 12 goals to five and 41 points to 13.  Glass also had 164 penalty minutes in two years while Dorsett had 362 penalty minutes. 

At any rate, he was an important cog on the fourth line along with Dominic Moore and Brian Boyle.  And now he has to retire prematurely.   So long Derek....

Michael Grabner....Amazing

The good news is that the NHL app works in Japan!  I was able to watch the Ottawa game on delay in HD...a good game for the Blueshirts.  A shutout for the King and only nineteen shots by the Senators.  Pretty solid defensive effort.  I have to weigh in on the major penalty to Brendan Smith...totally bogus.  It was an open ice hit that resulted in Mark Borowiecki falling into the boards headfirst.  One could argue that Smith shoved him in the direction of the boards when they collided, but the play was not near the boards.  It was a marginal interference call at the least.  If you want to be sickened, take a look at the hit from Dion Phaneuf (now a Senator) that ended Michael Sauer's career:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc3ij0TSqAc

What's especially revolting is the call from the Maple Leaf announcers.  They are positively gleeful over the unpenalized hit and you see Phaneuf's father high fiving other player dads.  In the current NHL, Phaneuf would be suspended for ten games for that hit.

The point is that Brendan Smith's hit was nothing like that.  Unfortunately, Borowiecki sustained a concussion and will be out for a while.  Hopefully it is not going to have longterm ramifications.  I assume that Smith will have a hearing with the NHL.  It will be folly if they suspend him.

Now to Grabs.... 

Michael Grabner scored his ninth goal to take the team lead (until Zibanejad's empty netter).  It was his eighth goal in eleven games.  Okay, here is the amazing statistic. 

All of Michael Grabner's 11 points this season have been at even strength.  He has yet to get a point on the power play for a simple reason, he never plays the power play.  In 21 games this season he has gotten 45 seconds on the PP.  That makes his scoring stats pretty special, but wait. 

In 2016-17, all of Michael Grabner's 40 points were at even strength or shorthanded.  In 76 games he played all of 6:03 on the power play.   No one else in the NHL even came  close.  Andrew Cogliano was second with 35 points (16-19-35) without a PP point.  Jason Chimera was second in goals with with 20 (20-13-33). 

So, in two seasons, Michael Grabner has played in 97 games, gotten 6:48 playing time on the power play and has 36 goals, 15 assists and 51 points.   The next highest total belongs to Jean-Gabriel Pageau of the Senators who in two seasons has 14 goals and 30 assists for 44 points. 

To put this in perspective, 888 players played at least one game in the NHL last season.  454 of them had at least one point on the power play.  434 players had no points...and Grabner led them all. 

All Ranger fans should be thankful that they have the opportunity to watch someone like Grabner.  It's the last year of his contract and you wonder how much the Austrian speedster will be able to get on the open market. At 31 next season, he will be on the older side, but he keeps himself in great shape and will definitely want more than the $1.65 million he is making now. 

So, it makes you wonder what would happen if he DID play the power play.....just once in a while. 

And now you know what I do when I wake up at 4am in Japan. 

A Turnaround (The Second Ten Games)

So, we've established that the Rangers' bad start could have easily been a good start.  No puck luck, ice cold scoring, shakey goaltending...all factors that contributed.  All factors that have been resolved resulting in a return to normalcy.

We hedged our bets looking ahead at this ten game sequence, predicting as many as 14 points and a likely total of eight.  The team came through with 14 points, highlighted by that six game winning streak.  At any rate, the Rangers are back in the playoff hunt and there are some things to be enthusiastic about.

The Results

In my last post we went over the first 17 results, game by game, so no point in recapping the first seven games of this sequence.  In the last three, it was classic New York Ranger hockey as they beat Edmonton at Madison Square Garden and lost on the road to Chicago and Columbus.  In the Edmonton game they fell behind 2-1 in the second period and came back to win.  In Chicago they were cruising through two periods when a fluky goal tied the score and then the defense fell apart and Artem Anisimov bagged a hat trick. Even then, they Rangers were a toe save away from tying the score late in the third period.  The effort in Columbus was not as good as an even first period led to two periods of domination by the Blue Jackets.  In the last two road losses the Rangers were definitely stymied by outstanding goaltending. Lundqvist had a rough time in Chicago, but has been mostly excellent, especially against Columbus.

Let's just say that by winning  seven out of ten games, the Rangers were never dominant, but did enough to win.  The positives are numerous.  When the team needed the power play to come through, it mostly did.  When the PP was frustrated  (only one short man advantage vs. Boston) the 5x5 team came through.  Probably the most encouraging effort was the overtime win on the road vs. Tampa.  The Lightning are running over the entire league, only losing two out of their first 19 games.  They just demolished Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim by a combined score of 12-4.  They have only lost one regulation game at home and on the road.  Their only overtime loss at home came at the hands of the Blueshirts.

But it wasn't just Tampa.  The Rangers also beat Boston, Columbus and Edmonton, teams considered among the better teams in the NHL.  The bottom line is the team has lost four games in regulation in the last 14.  Not bad.

However, two road losses and the Rangers moved from a team in a playoff spot to a team on the outside looking in.  They can ill afford to lose games that they could win. Only seven points separate the three teams (NJ, Columbus, Pittsburgh) in first place with 25 points and the last place Carolina Hurricanes (18 points, but three games in hand).   It is going to be a dogfight for the playoffs for every team in the East with the possible exception of Tampa.

Stats Pack

Some positive statistics. The Rangers are 6th in the NHL in goals scored (63) and 11th in goals per game (3.15).  Their power play ranks 5th in the league (23.6%). Their faceoff winning percentage is north of 50% for the first time in years. Surprisingly, they are 12th in the league in total hits (423). I guess they don't miss Tanner Glass. The team shooting percentage is 9.7% which is higher than the league average.

On the average side, the penalty kill is 16th at 80.6%. 

On the negative side, they are 27th in goals allowed (66) and 25th in goals allowed per game (3.30).  That's easily explained when you realize that the Rangers are the WORST in the NHL in giveaways with 299.  That's 15 giveaways per game. How bad is that?  The St. Louis Blues, best in the league,  average five giveaways per game.  Even the lowly Arizona Coyotes average only nine giveaways per game.  If you think the Blueshirts are resilient, they may be, but  the team has only won two out of ten games in regulation when the opposition scores first. They fall behind early and make the games competitive, but are not winning those games.

The Next Ten Games

The Rangers play seven of the next ten at MSG.  It's really time to make some hay at home.  If they don't they will have a  very tough time with a lot of road games the rest of the season. It's scary...in the first thirty games they play TWENTY at home.  And so far, their record so far is a decidedly mediocre 7-4-2.   Think about it...60% of the remaining games are on the road after they finish the third ten game sequence.  Ouch.

The home games are Ottawa, Detroit, Vancouver, Florida, Carolina, New Jersey and Dallas.  The road games are in Carolina, Pittsburgh and Washington.  Ordinarily a number of these games could be called "easy."  Not this season.  Eight of those ten teams have winning records and one is at .500, just like New York.

Okay, in this season that is impossible to predict, let's say that the Rangers will continue to be competitive and will win their share of the "win-able" games.   Home ice will help. Fourteen out of twenty points will be a successful sequence and is do-able.  It's more likely they will end up with ten or twelve.  They NEED to get 14 points or more.

Personal Note

I'm off to Japan for eight days.  I'll be at the mercy of wifi and a Slingbox, but I am hopeful I will be able to see all four games they play while I am gone. In the meantime, Happy Thanksgiving to all and let's give thanks for that six game winning streak that has sort of salvaged this season.

Never Easy

Well, Well, Well....

Here we are on a Thursday morning, fresh off a win against the Big, Bad Bruins on national television.  Lo and behold, the New York Rangers are in a playoff spot...eleven days after Glen Sather's trip to watch the Canadiens play when trade winds were blowing at hurricane force.  Since then, the team has won five in a row and vaulted into contention as one of the better teams in the NHL.  

Here are some numbers.  The Rangers are two points out of first place in the Metropolitan Division.  Nine teams in the Eastern Conference have fewer points than the Blueshirts, only five have more. They are in 7th place in the NHL with 8 ROW's.  They are in 10th place overall in goals per game (3.29)  With an efficiency rating of 23.8% they are 5th in the league on the power play. They have gotten to 11th place overall on the penalty kill (82.5%).  At 51.2% they are in 11th place in face off winning percentage. Mika Zibanejad is in the top ten in scoring in the NHL. Kevin Shattenkirk leads all defensemen in scoring.   Shattenkirk has more points in his last five games (8) than Norris Trophy winner Brett Burns has this entire season (7).    In this winning streak, the Rangers have beaten three teams with better records including Tampa on the road.   Yup, the Rangers suck.

But Do They?

The answer is that they were never that bad, but they were facing an unusual run of bad luck, coincidental scoring slumps and an out of alignment defense.  The bottom line is the Rangers have been living on the edge all season and in the last five games, everything that went wrong in the beginning of the season, has gone right.

Let's look game by game:

Game 1:  4-2 loss (empty net goal).  This was a loss to Colorado that could easily have been a win.   They poured 39 shots on Semyon Varlamov who stood on his head.  This was a game that could have gone either way.  

Game 2: 8-5 loss.  A horrific first period in Toronto, but the first time the Rangers showed their resiliency as they came back to tie the score. The team ran out of gas in the third period.  This was a loss all the way, but the comeback was a good sign. 

Game 3: 2-0 win.  A shutout for Lundqvist, vs. the struggling Canadiens.  The Rangers were helped by two disallowed goals in the first period.  Not a dominant win, by any means. 

Game 4:  3-1 loss (empty net goal)  Another one goal loss that could easily have been win vs. St. Louis. The Rangers allowed a goal fifteen seconds into the first period, but outshot one of the best team sin the league.  

Game 5: 3-1 loss (empty net goal).  A road loss to Columbus that could have gone either way.  They were let down by the power play 0-4, but for a timely goal, they win this game. 

Game 6:  3-2 loss.  The Rangers outshot the Devils 14-3 in the first period, but couldn't score, ultimately losing.  Another game that could have gone a different way.

Game 7:  5-4 loss in OT.   The Rangers should have won this game versus Pittsburgh as Kevin Shattenkirk touched a puck that could have been whistled down and Sydney Crosby scored a ridiculous goal from behind the goal line to tie in the last minute.  

Game 8:  4-3 loss in Shootout.  The Rangers came back with two third period goals to tie the Islanders, but lost in the shootout. Another game allowing an early goal, this could have been a two point game. 

Game 9:  4-2 win  (empty net goal).  This game vs Nashville at the Garden could have gone the other way as the Rangers only mustered 15 shots on goal. The King won this game for New York. 

Game 10:  4-1 loss.  This was a stinker vs. San Jose. Again, a dominant first period was undermined by a goal by the Sharks in the first two minutes.  They broke up the shutout with a Zibanejad goal in the third period.   An early goal might have changed the outcome. 

Game 11:  5-2 win (empty net goal).  The Rangers blew out the Arizona Coyotes.  Never in doubt. 

Game 12: 5-4 loss.  This was the game in Montreal that potentially turned the season around.  The Rangers were manhandled by the Canadiens, falling behind 3-0 after one period.  They eventually came back from a 4-2 deficit to tie the score, only to lose on a Danault goal in the third period.  An unimpressive performance by Ondrej Pavlec, bettered by a slightly less unimpressive performance by Carey Price. All of the players said that a team meeting after that embarrassing first period was a turning point. 

Game 13:  6-4 win (empty net goal).  The Rangers fell behind Vegas 4-2, only to rally for four straigh goals for the win.  Great comeback, but the Garden crowd was suicidal after two periods.  The rally was against the Golden Knights 4th string goaltender.  A fortunate win.

Game 14:  2-1 win in OT.  Great win vs. Tampa on the road, this was helped by another disallowed goal in the third period by the Lightning.  The hockey gods have begun to smile on the Rangers this season.  Could have gone either way.

Game 15:  5-4 win in OT.  The Rangers blew a 4-3 lead in the last two minutes as Florida's Vincent Trocheck scored a bad goal off Lundqvist.  Overshadowed by the win in overtime, they almost blew this one.

Game 16:  5-3 win (empty net goal).  Another stirring comeback as the Rangers scored three power play goals against Columbus in less than seven minutes in the third period.  Down 4-2 with ten minutes left in the game, it looked grim. A lack of discipline by the Blue Jackets doomed them.

Game 17:  4-2 win (empty net goal).  Another ulcer game as the Bruins tie the score 21 seconds after the Rangers take a 1-0 lead.  The dreaded two goal lead dissolved in the third period and it became a nail biter as Hank stood on his head to preserve the win.

So.....

What's the point?  The Rangers were only completely out of two games in the first 17.  Not counting empty net goals, 13 games were  really one goal games.   If the team wins four out of the seven they eventually lost their record would be 12-5-0 and they would be challenging for the President's Trophy.  That said, seven out of their eight wins could have gone the other way.  If they lost half of those games, they would be 4-11-2 and they would have a new coach and new players.  

Before we start planning our schedules around the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we have to accept that in today's NHL this will be a dogfight, probably until the last night of the season.  The Rangers are good, but need to be firing on all cylinders and also need a healthy dose of puck luck.   The good news is that they are a good team and will be in the fight for the playoffs throughout this season. As previously noted, the margin is razor thin. 

Some Notes:

It appears that scouting trip to Montreal was actually a trip to assess Ottawa, not the Canadiens.  According to league insiders, the Rangers were in play for Matt Duchene, but it was Colorado's insistence that they include Brady Skjei that torpedoed that deal.  I would assume that Sather was looking at Kyle Turris who was at a contract impasse with the Senators, eventually going to Nashville in the Duchene deal.

According to Bob McKenzie, there were GM's aplenty at MSG last night, including the general managers of the St. Louis Blues, Columbus Blue Jackets and Edmonton Oilers.  Why?  You can be sure that Jeff Gorton knows how fragile the Rangers are and is still in the hunt for a center.   We shall see.

Brendan Smith was scratched again last night, making it eight straight games.  The $4.3 million he is making is beginning to look like a bad signing.  Vigneault said that he will get back into the lineup, but he is going with the Kampfer/Holden solution until  they lose.   Ranger fans can dream, but take Rick Nash's $7.8 million, Smith's $4.3 million and $12.1 million should be enough to lure John Tavares to the bright lights of Broadway.   We'll take a look at the cap situation for next year in another post, but it's worth noting that Brady Skjei, J.T. Miller, Jimmy Vesey and Kevin Hayes will all be looking for big paydays next season as RFA's. 

The Margin is Razor Thin

That's Better

So, Ranger fans can breathe a sigh of relief.  The team is one game under .500 and only one point out of a wild card spot despite their horrendous start. Believe it or not, in the last nine games, the Rangers have lost only twice in regulation.   Riding a three game winning streak, the team returns to MSG to face Columbus and Boston, both good tests for this team. 

The Rangers have benefited from one of the strangest seasons in recent memory.  Scoring is up.  Elite goaltenders are vulnerable.  Bad teams are good and good teams are bad.  Let's take a deeper look at the state of the NHL.

Mediocrity

The Eastern Conference is the very definition of parity.   Of the 16 teams in the East, only four are more than two games over .500.   Six teams are under .500 and six teams are hovering around the .500 mark.  Even more interesting is if you take overtime games out of the equation.  If you do, six teams are above .500.   Here are the records of the Eastern teams after sixty minutes of hockey:

Team	GP	W-L	Winning Percentage
Tampa	15	9-2	82%
New Jersey	12	6-3	67%
Ottawa	14	5-3	63%
Boston	12	5-4	56%
Columbus	14	5-4	56%
Islanders	13	6-5	55%
Philadelphia	15	6-6	50%
Toronto	15	6-7	46%
Washington	14	5-6	45%
Pittsburgh	16	5-6	45%
Carolina	12	3-5	37%
Rangers	15	4-7	36%
Detroit	14	4-7	36%
Florida	13	4-7	36%
Buffalo	14	3-8	27%
Montreal	14	3-8	27%

In the West, ten out of the fifteen teams are above .500, assisted greatly by the Arizona Coyotes 0-12 record.  In fact, every team in the Central Division is at .500 or above (not including OT games).

As mentioned in a previous post, the have-nots are doing much better this season.  In the East, half of the eight  teams in the playoffs as of Sunday morning, were not there last year.  In the West, it's even more dramatic.  Six out of the eight teams in playoff position now didn't make the post-season last year. 

What's the point of all of this?  I guess I am trying to say that as bad as the Blueshirts have been, there are very few teams in the East that are much better.  Tampa was expected to be an elite team with Stamkos back in the lineup.  New Jersey has been a surprise and the question is whether they can keep this up.   As for the rest of the conference, the teams the Rangers will be battling for a playoff spot are in win one, lose one territory.   And the teams that we all expected to be as good or better than the Rangers (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Montreal) are really not playing well.  Overachievers include Toronto, the Islanders, Boston and Philadelphia.  

The Winning Streak

The last three games have demonstrated how thin the margin is between success and failure in the NHL.   Against Vegas, the team looked awful.  They came to life in the third period, but remember they were shooting against an AHL second string goaltender.  They played a solid game in Tampa, but were helped by a disallowed third period goal.  The Rangers blew a third period lead yet again (another 6 on 5 goal allowed) against Florida.   As nice as their 6-7-2 record and three game winning streak is, they could just as easily be sitting at 3-8-4 with the blogosphere calling for Vigneault's head with a vengeance.  

Conversely, a few timely goals in their first dozen games and they could be sitting at 10-5-0 and in first place in the Metropolitan Division.  

The good news is the offense is clicking and power play continues to produce.  Rick Nash is showing signs of breaking out of his season-long slump and J.T. Miller is playing elite hockey.  They are also winning with Steven Kampfer and Nick Holden in the  lineup and still without a true third line center. The team also finally broke through and won a couple of games on the road. 

The bad news is Brendan Smith and his $4 million salary is riding the bench and the backup goalie is weak.  Lundqvist has shown flashes of brilliance, but also has his moments (Trocheck's tying goal in Florida was soft).   The team has also beaten only one "good" team this year (Tampa).  Their other wins have come against struggling teams. 

Five of their next six games are versus teams with "winning" records.  The other is against Edmonton at MSG and the Oilers are showing signs of life.  We will know a lot more about the 2017-18 New York Rangers by Thanksgiving.  With that razor thin margin, it could be a wild ride. 

Trade Winds?

Here's a post from Shawn Simpson of TSN.

Glen Sather and three senior staffers (but NOT Jeff Gorton) are scouting the Montreal-Ottawa game tonight.  Speculation that this is a precursor to a NYR-Montreal deal.   It makes sense for two struggling teams to deal and the names being bandied about include  Galchenyuk and Pacioretty.  Leaving New York names include Kreider, Skjei , Nash and Zuccarello.  Don't rule out Ottawa, though no trade targets are really obvious.

Alex Galchenyuk is a 23 year old center who is two seasons away from a 30 goal season.  He's fallen out of favor and has been a favorite of the trade rumor mill for a while now.  Pacioretty is the Canadiens captain, 28 years old and has had a run of four 30 goal+ seasons.  He is a Connecticut native and grew up a Ranger fan.  He's also a left wing and that doesn't help the Rangers issue at center ice.

Both guys make under $5 million per year.

It would obviously take some value from the Rangers to get either player, hence the Kreider chatter.

Stay tuned.

More of the Same

If anyone took anything positive out of the loss to Montreal Saturday night, think again.  Sure, the team came back from a three goal deficit and actually tied the score in the third period, but it just ended up as another loss as this season is slowly slipping from discouraging to disastrous.

The Rangers looked awful in the first period.  What's most depressing is that there was no effort. If the team even tried they can be forgiven, but if avoiding humiliation is the only incentive for the team to skate hard, there is something very, very wrong.   There are some very obvious conclusions we can draw about the 2017-18 New York Rangers.

1. They are not prepared at game time.  Yet again, the team fell behind in the first period.  In their twelve games, the Rangers have given up the first goal nine times (that includes the disallowed goal vs. Montreal in game #3).  They are constantly playing from behind and even when they catch up, they eventually lose (Toronto, Pittsburgh, Islanders, Montreal).  The blame for that has to be on the coaching staff, not just the players.  You have to ask if Vigneault has lost the team.
2. The back up goalie is not very good.  Ondrej Pavelec has not been that impressive.  Last night, despite facing 43 shots he was mediocre and gave up some juicy rebounds including one on the winning goal.  He is also slow to move...I cannot put my finger on it, but he just doesn't move quickly after making a save.  Steve Valiquette was very tactful in his criticism of Pavlec, but brought up the same thing.  As shaky as Lundqvist has been this year, I believe that they would have won the game last night if he had been in net.  
3. The Rangers can score.  The team potted four goals against Carey Price.  They were dominant on offense at times (and won the second and third periods).  They still over-pass, but the team has scored 21 goals  in their last six games, a 3.50 goals per game average. They averaged 3.12 goals per game last season.  They've only gone 2-2-2 in those six games. 
4. Four lines work best.  Not only four lines, but using Michael Grabner on the fourth line brings a new dimension to the team. The Nieves/Grabner/Buchnevich fourth line was magnificent against Arizona, not so great against Montreal.  Watching them against Arizona brought memories back of their start last season. I agree that Buchnevich needs to play more, but fourth line minutes combined with first team power play could work.  The coaches need to figure out the line combinations and stick with them. 
5. Kevin Shattenkirk has defensive issues.  As wonderful as Shattenkirk has been on the power play, he is prone to totally bonehead moves on defense.  A lot of NHL insiders have been critical of him for his defense and they obviously knew something.  It is a case of Kevin giveth and Kevin taketh....and we need to aware of that.  Shattenkirk's defense makes Keith Yandle look like Larry Robinson.  At any rate, Shattenkirk has to be deployed properly and that is on the coaching staff.
6. The Rangers have defensive issues.  Wow, has this season been a series of giveaways and unforced errors?  Even Ryan McDonagh  has had issues, a sure sign that he is trying too hard.  Thank goodness that Marc Staal has been playing decently.  Note to the haters, Dan Girardi is playing on the first pair for Tampa, tied for the most points in the NHL.  They are scoring goals by the bushel so their GAA is in the middle of the league, but he is being deployed properly averaging 16 minutes per game instead of the 20+ he averaged with New York. At any rate, Nick Holden has been inconsistent and the Brady Skjei/Brendan Smith combination has not shown the form that they did in the playoffs yet.

There is more, but it why dwell on it?   The team has another one of those "must win" games on Tuesday night vs. Vegas.  It will be scary... The Golden Knights are 8-1-0 though three of those wins have come in OT or a shootout.  To take a little luster off their record, consider that they've played seven straight home games (6-1) after beating Dallas and Arizona (in OT) on the road.  Their 7-0 win over Colorado on Friday has to be impressive, but they are about to hit the road on a six game trip.  They start on Monday vs. the Islanders so the Rangers will be getting them on the second night of a back to back.  One reason that Vegas is doing so well is that they are scoring on an unsustainable 13.1% of their shots. When that number drops closer to the league average of 9.4% they will come back to earth. By comparison, the Rangers shoot percentage is 9%. 

If the Rangers can beat Vegas (did anyone ever think that we would be saying "if they can beat Vegas") they go on a two-game trip to Florida, an opportunity for the proverbial team-bonding.  We shall see.  

The only good news so far this season is that the NHL effort at parity is succeeding.   Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs last season, only eight would qualify today.  In the East, the Rangers, Capital, Canadiens and Bruins are all off to mediocre starts.  In the West, Minnesota, San Jose, Edmonton and Calgary are all to slow starts.  

The Rangers are four points out of a wild card playoff spot as of today.  That's four points the team gave away by slow starts, shoddy defense and loose goaltending.  It's still not too late, but they need to get their act together. 

Some Player Notes:

Filip Chytil is tied for second in the AHL in rookie scoring.  In only six games he has eight points (three goals and five assists).   Vinni Lettieri has five points in eight games.  The leading scorer for the Wolf Pack is Cole Schneider with nine points, but it is doubtful we will see him on Broadway.  Hartford is playing better than they did last year (4-4-1).   The bad news is the goaltending hasn't been superlative, so there is no better option than Pavlec in the minors.

Adam Cracknell cleared waivers and is playing for Hartford.  In two games he has no points, just like his tenure with the big club.

On defense in Hartford, Neal Pionk and Alexei Bereglazov are playing well, while Tony DeAngelo is already -4 and pointless in two games. If DeAngelo is a bust, the Stepan/Raanta for Lias Andersson deal could be one that Jeff Gorton will regret for years.

Vegas placed  defenseman Griffin Reinhart on waivers Sunday.  The former 2012  #4 overall pick (Islanders) cannot crack the Golden Knights lineup.

There has been no word about Russian winger Danis Zarapov, who was cleared to play in the NHL this summer.  He has disappeared from sight. The only mention of him was on a Penguins website (apparently Malkin is still pushing for him to be signed).  He is believed to be in no rush to sign with anyone and wants a lot of money.

There has been some rumors about Vadim Shipachyov, a 30-year old Russian center with Vegas.  Just today, he was suspended by the team for not reporting to the AHL.  He's only played in three game this season with one goal. He signed a two-year, $9 million deal with Vegas after three outstanding seasons in the KHL (26-50-76 in 50 games last season), but he didn't gel in Sin City.   A skilled Russian center on the third line is intriguing, but the Blueshirts have absolutely  no cap space to sign him unless Vegas would pick up some of his salary.   His agent was given permission to find a deal a couple weeks ago, but with today's suspension his contract could be voided and he could return to Russia.  Stay tuned. 

Finally,when it comes to the Rangers,  according to TSN Hockey insider, Bob MacKenzie,  "a trade would happen before the coach would be in the hot seat."  No indication of what that would be.  My question is what would it take to get Matt Duchene from Colorado.  Kevin Hayes and Brady Skjei? Filip Chytil and Neal Pionk?   Chris Kreider and Tony DeAngelo?  Personally, it would be nice if the Rangers had someone like Brendan Gallagher, a player everyone hates to play against.  The team lacks sandpaper.  Maybe the answer is a gritty forward who is currently in the top 20 in goals scored in the league.  But would a team sitting in fourth place overall in the Western Conference be willing to give up a player like that?  That player is Derek Dorsett. 

Late Sunday Night Factoids

More craziness as Pittsburgh lost to Winnipeg 7-1 and Washington continued their poor play, losing to Calgary.  For you optimists, the Rangers have three regulation or overtime wins.  That's as many as the Capitals and Hurricanes and more than Edmonton or Montreal.  Either all is not lost or this is the season for the "have-nots" to finally 'have."

Desperate Days

It's hard to believe that a late October game against the Arizona Coyotes is a "must win" but it is.  The Yotes lost 5-3 to the Islanders Tuesday night so they will be coming to MSG without a win.   Beware the winless team...

The Rangers made some roster moves to prepare for the game.  They placed Adam Cracknell on waivers.  If he clears he will be sent to Hartford.  He played four games for the Rangers with no points and a -1 rating.  I guess the Adam Cracknell experiment has gone the way of the Paul Carey experiment (though he remains with the team).  Tony DeAngelo was also sent to Hartford and Boo Nieves was brought up, presumably to center the fourth line.  I assume that the Blueshirts will go with a traditional 12 forward, six defense alignment.  That means that Nick Holden will be getting regular ice time. Oh joy.

The team also made a minor trade two days ago, swapping Matt Puempel to Detroit for defenseman Ryan Sproul who was immediately sent to Hartford.  Detroit also sent center Riley Sheahan and a fifth round pick to the Penguins in exchange for forward Scott Wilson and a third round pick.

The Wings were desperate to clear cap space once they signed Andreas Athanasiou.  What is frustrating is that the Rangers gave up on Puempel for yet another depth defenseman.  Sproul had a decent upside, but couldn't crack the lineup on a mediocre Detroit team.  He now gets in line behind DeAngelo, Pionk and Graves on the pipeline to NYC.

Meanwhile, the Penguins get a third line center in Sheahan, 25 years old and with seasons of 13 and 14 goals.  He peaked in 2015 with 36 points in 79 games.  Puempel and Wilson have similar stats (and salaries)...so what kept the Blueshirts from acquiring Sheahan?  Not wanting to swap draft picks?  Sheahan makes a shade over $2 million a year, but the Rangers have more than that in cap space.  His offensive numbers are very similar to Desharnais.   I'm sure that there were additional cap considerations (clearing waivers etc) that affected the deal, but it is still maddening to see a Metropolitan Division rival like Pittsburgh plug a hole while the Rangers tread water.  That's on Jeff Gorton.

Oh yes, with DeAngelo now playing in Hartford, Derek Stepan will be the only player from the big trade who will be playing.  The Rangers have nothing to show for that deal except a defensively-challenged minor leaguer and a stud prospect in Sweden.  As for Arizona, Antti Raanta has been injured, but has resumed skating.  There is a slim chance he will make his return to play vs. the Rangers. Stepan is centering the top line and has two goals and five assists. Another former Ranger, Anthony Duclair is off to a decent start (2-2-4) after a really disappointing season.  And for all of the analytics freaks, Bobby Orr....er, Adam Clendening is also with Arizona...where he has appeared in three out of nine games for the worst team in the league. He probably won't play tonight either.

The First Ten Games (ugh)

Get the lifeboats ready.  It's time to abandon ship!  While all is not lost, the team has not displayed any sign that they will be a playoff contender.  It has been an incredibly depressing start to a season that began with the usual expectations of Stanley Cup contention.  Let's look at the first ten games to see what went wrong.

The First Ten Games

The season began with an unexpected 4-2 loss to Colorado.  While it was really a one-goal game (the last Avalanche goal was an empty netter), there were ominous signals that there would be future troubles.  The Blueshirts fell behind early, allowing a goal five minutes in.  They threw 37 shots at Varlamov, but except for two powerplay goals, they were stymied.  One game, two trends began...falling behind early and an inability to score.

Game two was that abomination in Toronto.  The team's spirited comeback from a 5-1 deficit masked the chaos that was the Ranger defense.  In a flashback to last season, Lundqvist was pulled early.  And after the comeback, the Maple Leafs outshot the Rangers in the third period 13-8 and scored all three goals.  Again, accentuating the comeback hid the problems that were readily evident in an 8-5 loss.

The third game was the first win, a 2-0 shutout of Montreal. Again, the Rangers were scored on early, but Montreal had TWO first period goals disallowed.  Hank came back from his awful outing the night before and got the shutout.  All was well in Rangerland...though the win came against one of the few teams having a worse season than the Rangers.  

The next three losses (St. Louis, Columbus & New Jersey) all accentuated the problems this team is having.  No chemistry. Nick Holden and Steven Kampfer getting big minutes.  No scoring.  Horrifying turnovers.  

There was a mini-comeback in the next three games with overtime losses to the Penguins and Islanders and the win against Nashville.  That was four points out of a possible six. Again the rationalization..."we could have won the games against Pittsburgh and the Islanders."

The final game of the ten game set was a dispirited loss to San Jose. While the Sharks are playing better, they were also coming off a loss to the Islanders (with the backup goalie in net).  

So....after ten games the Rangers have six points out of a possible 20.  They have won only two games out of eight at Madison Square Garden and are winless on the road.  In my ten game preview, I took the safe route and predicted ten points.  I also said that it could just as easily be six or fourteen.  

What's Happening?

It's been a long time since the Rangers have been so disjointed.  They lack identity and spirit.  Their play is inconsistent and aimless.  The lack of chemistry is alarming.  

One problem is that the coaching staff didn't use the pre-season as an opportunity to build chemistry.  The short exhibition season was a series of auditions as they used the games to decide who would be in the NHL and who would be sent down.  None of the defensive pairings played together.  None of the forward lines played together.  So, when the season started, it was a Vigneault juggling game as he tried combination after combination with no success.  

I think the coaching staff underestimated what the departures of Stepan and Girardi would do to the team.  On Defense, the only players who have been with the team for more than a year are McDonagh and Staal.  Rather than integrate Kevin Shattenkirk into the rotation, the pre-season was a round robin audition for Neal Pionk, Tony DeAngelo, Steven Kampfer, Nick Holden and Ryan Graves. 

It was even worse for the forwards.  By going into training camp without a clear plan on who would be centering the top three lines,  the team gave ice time to Vinni Lettieri, Lias Andersson, Filip Chytil and Boo Nieves.  When the regular season started, the forward lines were in disarray with only the Zibanejad, Kreider and Nash line intact.  Chytil got a cup of coffee and then was dispatched to the AHL. How on earth does that happen?  The result has been that there are 11 forwards and seven defensemen playing every game.  David Desharnais has been moved up to the second line.  Tony DeAngelo only plays the power play (as does Pavel Buchnevich).  It is truly a mess. 

The Rangers played their last pre-season game on September 26 while the rest of the league played for five more days.   And where were the Rangers those days?  In Lake Placid, NY.  Teambuilding. Bobsledding.  Doing anything but preparing for the upcoming schedule.  Folly.

So, with ten games under their belts, the team shows no sign that they will stop giving up early goals and figuring out how to score.  The power play is deteriorating (0-6 vs. San Jose) and Lundqvist is not holding up well. Opposition odd man rushes and boneheaded defensive plays are proliferating.  Beware the arrival of the winless Arizona Coyotes on Thursday.  The one team you DON'T want to play when you are going bad is a team looking for their first win.  And don't look at Saturday's game in Montreal with any expectations for exactly the same reason.  And  ditto for the first visit to New York by the Vegas Golden Knights, an expansion team with twice the points the Ranger have, in three fewer games.

I have to believe that if the Rangers lose two out of those three games, there will be a coaching change.   The simple reason is that if you need 95 points to make the playoffs, with this start, the Rangers will need 89 points in 72 games...a 101 point pace.  

The Next Ten Games

From the debacle vs. San Jose the team has an "easy" game against the winless Coyotes. Then, a road game in Montreal against a Canadiens team that has yet to win a game in regulation.   Then comes the game against Vegas.  They have tough games against Tampa, Columbus (twice), Chicago and Edmonton.  They play Boston and Florida, both off to mediocre starts.   The games are split, five home and five away.  

If the team was playing well, I could easily see them coming out of the next ten games with 13 or 14 points.  The way it is going, they will be lucky to finish with eight points.   Any fewer than that and you can write off this season.  There has been no indication that this team is ready to pick up and play well.  No indication that they can go on a long winning streak.  As mentioned before, the only coach in the league who has had his job longer than Vigneault is Joel Quenneville and he has three Stanley Cup rings.  Two teams have lost only one game this season.  In the East it is the Tampa Bay Lightning with Ryan Callahan, Anton Stralman and Dan Girardi (Stamkos too).  In the West it is the Los Angeles Kings who fired a coach with two Stanley Cup rings in the off season.

Stay tuned.

A Sinking Ship

This season has certainly got off to a depressing start.  After last night's loss to the Devils at Madison Square Garden, the Rangers are 1-5 and have the distinction of being better than only the perennial cellar dwelling Arizona Coyotes.  With the Penguins coming to New York on Tuesday night and an energized Islander team on Thursday it is very possible that the team could be 1-7 by the weekend when they get to play the Stanley Cup runner-ups, the Nashville Predators.

I've been to two games this season, the 3-1 loss to St. Louis and the game last night. The fatalism in the Garden was noticeable.  With all of this good cheer, it's time to take a look at this team and two old friends are returning to lend their perspective.

Naysayer Ned's Negativity

All of the pre-season predictions of disaster have come true.   Here's what has gone wrong:

• No Center Ice Depth:  Trading Derek Stepan was a mistake.  While Zibanejad has been a scoring machine, he is NOT a true first line center.  Kevin Hayes has been thrust into the role of second line center and shut down defensive center and he is failing.  David Desharnais should be the fourth line center and has already been moved to the third line, since the J.T. Miller center experiment failed.   Paul Carey is not the answer. 
• Defensive Pairings are a Mess:  The coach cannot decide how the defense should be aligned.  Ryan McDonagh has been paired with Kevin Shattenkirk, Nick Holden, Marc Staal and last night, Tony DeAngelo.  Career minor leaguer Steven Kampfer has actually started a couple games.  
• The Defense was Overrated:  The vaunted defense is porous.  Brendan Smith has been a mess and has been benched twice. Tony DeAngelo has shown flashed of offensive brilliance, but his defense is lacking and his judgment is suspect.  Witness his cross checking penalty last night.  It resulted in the go-ahead goal for the Devils and might have cost the Rangers the game (among other things).  Nick Holden has been getting big minutes when he clearly is over his head.  Hopefully he remains trade bait. 
• The Scorers are Not Scoring:  The players with no goals so far:  Kreider, Buchnevich, Grabner, Desharnais & Vesey.  One goal?:  Zuccarello, Miller, Nash & Hayes. Mika Zibanejad has scored almost 40% of the Ranger goals.  The reason for this ineptitude?  See below:
• Shoot the Damned Puck:   The Rangers are still afflicted with overpass-itis.   They have made Keith Kinkaid and Carter Hutton (who?) look like Ken Dryden.  When facing really good goalies like Bobrovsky and Varlamov, it's even worse.  The Rangers always make one extra pass, trying for the perfect shot.  It never works.  Throw the puck at the goalie, crash the net...good things happen. 
• Take Better Shots:  Not only do the Rangers overpass, they take too long to shoot. The modern NHL goalie is a behemoth, over 6 feet tall and filling the net.  Yet, repeatedly the Rangers shots are right at the breadbasket resulting in no rebounds and easy saves.  In any game, Chris Kreider is the only Ranger who camps in front of the net.  The result, five goals for Zibanejad and two for Shattenkirk. 
• The Team Cannot Win at Home:  For the second year in a row, the Rangers are not using home ice advantage.   Last season, they had the worst home record of any team that made the playoffs.  This season, they lead the league with three home losses (in four games).  It wasn't that important last year due to the outstanding road record (27 wins), but if they revert to league average form this could mean big trouble.  
• Falling Behind Early:  Until last night, the Rangers gave up early goals in every game.  5:29, 2:30, 6:23, 0:15 and 0:27.  Twice the goals were disallowed, but it is a disturbing trend that has spilled over from last season.  Clearly, the team is not prepared to play and playing from behind is ultimately a disastrous course for a team that cannot score. Teams know that they can jump on the Rangers early and they are taking advantage of it.  The Devils game was the only game this season that they had a good start.  If they hadn't with a 1-4 record, shame on them. 
• The Filip Chytil Experiment was a Mess:  The kid made the team barely at 18 years old after a dynamic training camp,  made a few mistakes and ending up riding the bench.  Now he is getting valuable minutes in Hartford where he has three points in two games.  Why did he start the season with the team if he was going to be given no chance to succeed?  
• The Penalty Kill is Awful:  The penalty kill has allowed one goal every four times shorthanded.  That 75% puts the Rangers in 26th place overall.  Not good. 
• The Team Lacks Heart:  In last night's game, the Rangers were gangbusters in the first period, outshooting the Devils 14-3.  Umable to convert they folded like a tent when the Devils went ahead.  They were outshot in the second period 12-3.  It was only when they were down 3-1 did the team make a push only to fall short.  Is a sixty minute effort to much to ask for?
• Time for a Coaching Change:  As the losses mount, we will see increasing calls for a coaching change.  Alain Vigneault is now the coach with the third longest tenure in the NHL behind Joel Quenneville  and Jon Cooper (Cooper & Vigneault are virtually tied). Is there a statue of limitations on how long a man can effectively coach a team?  If there is, Vigneault is over the limit. Of course, the heir apparent would be Assistant Coach Lindy Ruff, probably not the best solution considering his record in Buffalo and Dallas. 

Positive Peter's Perspective

Oh, stop it. The Rangers are a good team and are just off to a rough start.  They have 76 games left for goodness sake.  There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic.  

• It's Too Early to Panic: The last Ranger team to get off to a bad start like this was the team that lost six of their first eight games.  It should have been seven out of eight not for a fortuitous bouncing puck that Jonathan Quick lost and resulted in a gift goal.  What year was that ?  2013-14 and we all know what happened THAT season. 
• This Season has Been Just Plain Weird:  The Blackhawks beat the Penguins 10-1.   The Flyers beat Washington 8-2.  Ottawa beat Edmonton 6-1.  New Jersey and Colorado are tied for second overall in the NHL.  Vegas is 4-1 and tied for 2nd place overall.  Edmonton, Montreal and San Jose, like the Rangers, have only won one game so far.  Montreal has yet to win a game in regulation.  Again, it is TOO early to panic. 
• Bad Luck:  Even though the team has lost five games, they were in every game so far.  A bounce here, a deflection there and the team could be 5-1.  
• The Scorers are Not Scoring:  They will and when they do, look out.  Nash, Zuccarello, Hayes, Miller, Kreider, Buchnevich, and Grabner will eventually start putting the puck in the net. 
• The Power Play is Really Good:  Kevin Shattenkirk has lived up to his reputation as a PP wizard.  At over 20% efficiency, the PP is clicking and can only get better.  The team is still figuring out the make up of the second power play unit. 
• Jesper Fast has Returned:  Fast is very important to this team.  His return puts Paul Carey or Adam Cracknell on the bench and that is a good thing. 
• Team Chemistry is Not There Yet:  The coaches are still figuring out their line and defensive combinations.  The team is a work in progress and when the lines get set, the team will improve. 
• Derek Stepan is Not the Answer:  If anyone thinks Stepan is a miracle worker, the Coyotes are even worse than the Rangers and Stepan has three assists  and is -5 in five games. His faceoff winning percentage is 46.8%.   Antti Raanta has been injured and has appeared in only three games with an 0-1 record. 
• Keep Winning Face-offs:  The team sits at 10th place in the league in face-off percentage.  For the first time in years, they are north of 50%.  
• Lundqvist is Back:  One question has been answered.  Henrik Lundqvist, except for the disastrous game in Toronto,  has been stellar so far this season.  He cannot take responsibility for any  of the losses and  has kept the team in all of their games. Ondrej Pavlec hasn't looked bad either. 
• Help is on the Way:  Hartford was a horror show last season, but with Chris Drury in charge the team has been playing much better.  Filip Chytil, Neal Pionk, Alexei Bereglazov and Vinni Lettieri are getting valuable pro experience and you can be sure that we will see them on Broadway before long.
• The Team Can Come Back:  The game in Toronto went from an absolute disaster to a thrilling recovery. It proves that the team can do it. 

So, who is right?  There is no simple answer, but the answer will be found in the next two weeks.  By Halloween, the Rangers will have plugged the leaks and found themselves or they will be seriously jeopardizing their playoff prospects.  It's a cliche, but it is true.  You don't win a playoff spot in October and November, but you can certainly lose one.  And the magic date is Thanksgiving.  80% of the teams in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving go on to actually make the playoffs.